Bitcoin faces its largest monthly options expiry on May 30, with open interest totalling $13.8 billion.
Bulls hope to keep spot above $110,000 to capitalize on $4.8 billion in in-the-money call options.
Put sellers were caught off guard by BTC’s 25% rally over the past month, leaving 95% of bearish strikes below $109,000.
Futures Positioning
Despite a hefty $79 billion in futures open interest, bears risk a short squeeze if prices grind higher.
Efforts to nudge BTC below $105,000 would reduce bulls’ theoretical profit, but strong ETF inflows limit downside momentum.
Scenario Analysis
Derivatives platform Laevitas estimates that a $107k–$110k settlement would hand call buyers roughly $3.35 billion in edge.
A close north of $110k could expand that advantage to $4.7 billion, potentially fuelling an immediate push to fresh highs.
Macro Wildcard
Tariff rhetoric remains the joker in the deck.
Analysts warn that renewed trade tensions could revive risk aversion and sap crypto liquidity, just as they did during the May 23 flash drop.