Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and his team published a note on Monday arguing that the 60% collapse in cryptocurrency-adjacent stocks from their all-time highs represents a “rare chance to buy the dip at a ‘big’ discount” — language that runs directly against the prevailing mood of Extreme Fear gripping the market.
The note maintained Outperform ratings on Coinbase, Robinhood, and Figure Technology Solutions while lowering price targets on all three to reflect expectations of weak first-quarter results when those companies report earnings in the coming weeks.
Bernstein’s argument rests on a structural view rather than a near-term price call: the analysts believe crypto equities are approaching a floor “into weak Q1 earnings” and that the Iran-war-driven macro pressure that has hammered the sector is temporary rather than structural.
Coinbase’s earnings per share are projected to grow 23% in 2026, driven by what Bernstein describes as a coming “stablecoin boom” and the rollout of new products that reduce revenue dependence on spot trading fees — the most volatile element of the exchange’s income.
The Fear and Greed Index for crypto sits at 8, in Extreme Fear territory, a reading last seen during the August 2025 flash crash that in retrospect marked a local price bottom. On-chain analysts note that nearly half of all circulating Bitcoin is currently underwater, with long-term holders selling at a loss — historically a signal that a capitulation phase is reaching its final stages rather than beginning.
Bitcoin itself is holding just above $67,000, attempting a modest rebound after testing the $65,900 support level, with the recovery capped by the $296 million in net ETF outflows recorded last week — the first net outflow week after four consecutive weeks of inflows.
Whether the Bernstein call ages well depends almost entirely on the Iran war duration. A ceasefire signal would likely trigger a sharp snap-back across risk assets including crypto. A continuation into May would test both the $65,000 support and Bernstein’s confidence in the sector’s structural resilience.
