Bitcoin is trading at approximately $78,180 as of Sunday, down around 1.1% in the past 24 hours and continuing to give back gains that had briefly pushed the asset above $82,000 following the US Senate Banking Committee’s passage of the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act in a 15-9 bipartisan vote on May 14.
The retreat from those levels is being driven by a combination of profit-taking from institutional ETF holders, hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index data showing US inflation rising 1.4% in April, and a wave of Bitcoin long liquidations that wiped approximately $77.95 million in leveraged positions over a 24-hour period as the asset rejected resistance near the 200-day simple moving average at $82,270.
The CLARITY Act committee passage was broadly celebrated across crypto markets, with XRP and Dogecoin each rising around 5% in the immediate aftermath while Bitcoin climbed above $81,000 before the subsequent pullback. The bill, which aims to clarify regulatory jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC, classify most digital assets as commodities, and establish a framework for stablecoin regulation, now advances to the full Senate with a floor vote targeted for summer. Citi analysts have tied a $143,000 Bitcoin price target directly to full Congressional passage of the act, projecting an additional $15 billion in net ETF inflows once the bill clears both chambers. That target sits dramatically above current prices, and the market’s muted follow-through on the committee win reflects awareness that the full Senate path remains uncertain.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $635 million in net outflows on May 13, the largest single-day withdrawal since late January, led by Fidelity’s FBTC which alone accounted for over $86 million in outflows. The reversal followed a period of strong inflows that had totalled approximately $2.7 billion through nine consecutive days of net additions in early May. BlackRock’s IBIT absorbed $1.7 billion in inflows during April alone, representing roughly 70% of total US spot Bitcoin ETF flows for the month and cementing its role as the primary vehicle for institutional Bitcoin allocation. The oscillation between heavy inflows and sharp outflow days reflects the behaviour of institutions treating Bitcoin ETFs as a tactical risk allocation rather than a permanent strategic position, meaning flows can reverse quickly when macro data turns against risk assets.
The technical picture remains mixed. Bitcoin is trading below its 50-day simple moving average, a shorter-term bearish signal, but above the 200-day moving average, which has been rising since mid-May and provides longer-term structural support. The 14-day RSI of around 52 places the asset in neutral territory rather than the deeply oversold conditions that have historically preceded sharp recoveries. Exchange reserves continue to decline, sitting near multi-year lows, which reduces the available supply that sellers can quickly bring to market and theoretically provides a floor under any prolonged decline. The Coinbase Premium, which measures institutional US demand by tracking the price difference between Coinbase and Binance, flipped negative in the days before the outflow spike, providing an early signal that institutional sentiment was shifting before the data confirmed it.
On-chain data from CoinShares shows that Bitcoin’s total ETF net asset value stands at approximately $107.31 billion, with cumulative historical inflows reaching $59.13 billion. That figure compares to the $61.19 billion peak recorded in October 2025, when Bitcoin itself was trading above $126,000. The proximity to prior flow highs at prices more than 35% below those levels suggests institutional positioning is actually quite concentrated relative to price, which cuts both ways: it provides support through existing long exposure but also creates meaningful overhang if confidence weakens.
Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025 before a sustained sell-off through the winter months, with five consecutive red months from October through February taking the price from that peak to a low near $60,000. The recovery to the current $78,000 to $82,000 range has been driven by the combination of ETF inflow momentum and the CLARITY Act legislative progress rather than by broad retail participation, which the Fear and Greed Index reading of 31 confirms remains in “Fear” territory. Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse, noted the possibility of an earlier-than-expected cycle bottom: “Bitcoin could bottom sooner, as early as May. But in order for that to happen, there would have to be some type of massive capitulation well below what we historically expect.” That scenario has not yet materialised, leaving the market in a state of range-bound uncertainty as the CLARITY Act heads toward its next legislative hurdle.
