Bitcoin is under renewed pressure as markets respond to the latest developments in the US-China trade deal.
The proposed tariffs—now reportedly at 55%—are raising concerns among traders and economists, putting Bitcoin’s stability under the microscope just as it consolidates below all-time highs.
Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, suggests that these geopolitical tensions may be more influential on Bitcoin’s short-term price than recent macroeconomic data, such as the CPI inflation report.
Tariffs Seen as Major Economic Headwind
“Despite having a relatively positive economic report, and news that we almost have a trade deal with China, TradFi and Crypto Markets were slightly down on Wednesday,” Alan wrote on X.
He pointed to the sudden jump in tariffs from 30% to 55% as a likely driver of uncertainty.
“55% is going to be felt throughout every aspect of the U.S. economy and it isn’t going to feel good,” he added.
Liquidity Data Offers Some Optimism
Despite the pressure, Alan remains cautiously optimistic.
He reviewed order book data from Material Indicators’ proprietary FireCharts tool and found significant ask liquidity from $111,000 to $120,000.
This data, paired with less bid liquidity below the current price, suggests bullish market structure remains intact.
“TLDR: When in doubt, zoom out,” he advised, indicating that broader patterns are still favorable.
Yearly Open Emerges as Key Support Level
Alan identified the 2025 yearly open as a critical technical level for Bitcoin to maintain.
“Support at the 2025 Yearly Open is my line in the sand,” he stated, implying that any move below this level would challenge bullish sentiment.
Despite the lack of strong bids, he does not expect the market to sharply decline in the near term.
“Support tests are healthy,” Alan said, showing confidence that the price structure will hold.
$100,000 Psychological Level Remains Crucial
Analysts across the market are now closely watching the $100,000 price level.
This threshold has become a key psychological support, with potential long-term implications if it fails to hold.
Alan, who has previously highlighted this level, reiterated its importance.
“As I stated back in December when Bitcoin first started flirting with $100k, it will be important to see some consolidation above $100k with no wicks below to validate the R/S Flip,” he noted.
Preparing for the Bear Market Ahead
Beyond the current rally, analysts are considering how these support levels might serve Bitcoin in the next downtrend.
Alan emphasized the role of $100,000 as a foundational level that could help structure future price floors during less bullish periods.
“More importantly, this will build some structural support that could come into focus during the next bear market,” he said.
Bitcoin at a Crossroads
With the market digesting both macroeconomic data and trade-related uncertainty, Bitcoin’s future in the short term may hinge on its ability to hold $100,000.
For now, bulls are defending that ground, with eyes on key liquidity zones and technical levels as the next chapter unfolds.