Bitcoin briefly climbed above $92,000 following reports of a Department of Justice investigation involving Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Despite the initial rally, traders remained cautious as broader market indicators pointed to weak demand and persistent selling pressure.
The move failed to change the prevailing tone, with exchange-traded fund outflows continuing to weigh on sentiment.
Store-Of-Value Narrative Faces Scrutiny
Bitcoin remains down roughly 23% since October 2025, even as gold and silver pushed to new all-time highs in 2026.
This divergence has raised questions about whether Bitcoin’s digital store-of-value narrative is losing traction among investors.
Some traders argue that even a further 14% rally toward $105,000 may not be enough to trigger broad bullish positioning.
Expectations for additional U.S. economic stimulus have also faded, reducing support for risk assets.
Goldman Sachs recently said it no longer expects an interest rate cut in March, citing persistent inflation and resilient labor markets.
Powell Investigation Adds Political Dimension
Powell’s term as Federal Reserve chair is set to end in April, opening the door for a potential successor with a looser policy stance.
The investigation into the Fed’s building renovation project has raised questions about central bank independence.
Some analysts believe political pressure on the Fed could, in theory, favor alternative scarce assets such as Bitcoin.
Powell said the scrutiny should be viewed within the broader context of threats directed at the central bank.
So far, markets have shown little evidence that this dynamic is meaningfully altering Bitcoin’s risk profile.
ETF Outflows And Derivatives Signal Caution
Bitcoin failed to hold above $94,000 over the past month despite renewed corporate buying.
Strategy added $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin, marking its largest purchase since July 2025.
Even so, derivatives data showed limited appetite for bullish leveraged positions.
The annualized premium on Bitcoin futures hovered around 5%, a level typically associated with neutral to bearish sentiment.
By contrast, sustained bull markets usually see futures trading at a premium of 10% or more.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.38 billion in net outflows over four consecutive trading days.
Dollar Strength Limits Upside
Despite concerns about fiscal deficits, there is little evidence of a confidence crisis in the U.S. dollar.
The U.S. Dollar Strength Index rebounded to 99 after hitting a low of 96.7 in late November 2025.
Yields on five-year U.S. Treasurys have remained below 3.8%, signaling steady demand for government debt.
If markets were anticipating an imminent downturn, the dollar would likely have weakened more sharply.
For now, muted ETF flows and limited leverage demand suggest low odds of a surprise Bitcoin rally in the near term.
