Bitcoin may have significant upside from its current levels, according to crypto researcher André Dragosch, as the asset appears out of step with the forward macroeconomic outlook.
“The last time I saw such an asymmetric risk-reward was during COVID,” Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, said in a post on X on Friday.
He was referring to March 2020, when global pandemic fears caused Bitcoin’s price to tumble from around $8,000 to below $5,000.
Current Setup Mirrors Extreme Past Conditions
Dragosch highlighted that Bitcoin’s current conditions mirror the extreme risk-reward scenario seen during the early COVID period.
He noted that the cryptocurrency is “pricing in the most bearish global growth outlook since 2022,” pointing to aggressive quantitative tightening from the US Federal Reserve and the collapse of crypto exchange FTX.
“Bitcoin is essentially pricing in a recessionary growth environment,” Dragosch said, adding that the asset has already accounted for “a lot of the bad news.”
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reassured citizens on Sunday that the United States is not at risk of entering a recession in 2026.
Bitcoin Struggles Despite Market Hopes
Bitcoin’s price has underperformed relative to market expectations over the past month.
After hitting all-time highs of $125,100 on October 5, the cryptocurrency entered a downtrend following a $19 billion liquidation event on October 10.
This sell-off occurred shortly after US President Donald Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, further impacting market sentiment.
Bitcoin fell below the psychological $100,000 level on November 13 and has yet to reclaim it.
The price briefly dipped under $90,000 on November 20, though it quickly rebounded above this level a few days later.
According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin has declined 17.33% over the past 30 days.
Continued Adoption
Despite the pullback, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are continuing to be adopted in the real world. For example, cryptocurrencies are continuing to be used for secure withdrawals in crypto casinos – and this adoption is unlikely to slow down even in the face of a bear market.
Even countries such as the UAE, where gambling has long been banned, are starting embrace online casinos and blockchain-based gambling platforms. For instance, the GCGRA recently authorized Play 971 as the first online casino in the UAE.
Optimism from Macro Drivers
Dragosch believes global growth is likely to recover, supported by the effects of preceding monetary stimulus.
He compared the current environment to the post-COVID period, suggesting similar macro forces could support growth well into 2026.
“I genuinely think we’re staring at a similar macro setup right now,” Dragosch said.
Market Participants Eye a Rebound
Not all crypto investors are convinced that a prolonged bear market has begun.
Crypto trader Alessio Rastani told Cointelegraph that the recent price drop may not indicate the start of a long-term downturn.
Instead, Rastani argued that historical data points to recurring setups that have preceded strong rallies roughly 75% of the time.
Meanwhile, BitMine chair Tom Lee expressed confidence that Bitcoin could reclaim the $100,000 mark by the end of the year.
He added that the cryptocurrency might even reach new all-time highs, reflecting ongoing optimism among certain market participants.
