Bitcoin remained steady at $52,000 during the Wall Street opening on February 16, with the latest United States macro data surpassing expectations.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicated a lack of movement in BTC price leading into the final TradFi trading session of the week.
Following closely after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release two days earlier, the Producer Price Index (PPI) figures for January added to concerns about inflation in the U.S.§§§
Year-on-year, PPI stood at 0.9%, slightly lower than the previous month but still 0.3% higher than market forecasts.
In combination with the high CPI, these results made markets more cautious about the possibility of the Federal Reserve adjusting fiscal policy this year.
According to data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of the Fed reducing interest rates at its March meeting was 8.5% at the time of reporting — less than half the 17.5% probability at the beginning of the week.
“A March interest rate cut is likely completely ruled out after this data,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter commented on X (formerly Twitter), echoing its response to CPI.
“Furthermore, a May rate cut has become questionable as well.”
Bitcoin reached $52,884 on Bitstamp the previous day, marking its highest level since late November 2021, but encountered resistance from sellers.
Analysing four-hour timeframes, popular trader Skew highlighted the importance of the 21-period exponential moving average (EMA), currently at approximately $51,000.
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“There’s been choppy price action here with a lot of inside bar closes essentially within the same intraday balance,” he observed.
U.S. spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced net inflows of nearly half a billion dollars on February 15.
This contributed to an impressive week where the ETF products gained renewed interest more than a month after their initial launch.
However, despite removing more BTC from circulation than adding to it daily, the ETFs have caused some concern among market observers.
In his latest analysis, Venturefounder, a contributor at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, suggested that a slowdown in ETF interest could expose Bitcoin to a significant retracement.
“Bitcoin ETF net inflow flatline/normalize is where the next 20-30% correction will start,” part of X’s commentary stated alongside a summary of current flows.
A previous post outlined potential BTC price floor levels, with estimates extending down to $34,000.
According to the latest research from crypto intelligence firm Coin Metrics, it is no longer feasible for nation-states to dismantle the Bitcoin and Ethereum networks via 51% attacks due to the exorbitant costs involved.
A 51% attack occurs when a malicious actor possesses over 51% of the mining hash rate in a proof-of-work system or 51% of staked crypto in a proof-of-stake network.
This power could be abused to manipulate the blockchain, compromising trust.
In a report released on February 15, Coin Metrics researchers Lucas Nuzzi, Kyle Waters, and Matias Andrade contended that nation-state attackers can no longer sustain such assaults due to the prevailing cost of capital and operational expenses needed to attain 51% control.
The researchers introduced a metric named “Total Cost to Attack” (TCA) to precisely gauge the expense of launching an attack on a blockchain network.
Utilising TCA, the report concluded that there are no financially rewarding avenues to attack either the Bitcoin or Ethereum networks, negating the financial incentive for malicious actors.
“In none of the hypothesized attacks presented here [would the attacker] be able to profit by attacking Bitcoin or Ethereum,” read the report.
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“Consider that even in the most profitable double spend scenario presented, where the attacker could potentially make $1B after spending $40B, that would account for a 2.5% rate of return.”
Analysing secondary market data and real-time hash rate output, the report revealed that a 51% attack on Bitcoin would necessitate an actor to procure a staggering 7 million ASIC mining rigs, costing approximately $20 billion.
Acknowledging the scarcity of available ASIC rigs, the report explored an alternative attack vector, which might be pursued by a particularly “relentless” actor.
Assuming a nation-state attacker could fabricate their own mining rigs—identifying the Bitmain AntMiner S9 as the only “plausible” device for reverse-engineering—it would still exceed a $20 billion investment.
Furthermore, the report debunked concerns over a potential 34% staking attack from Lido validators on Ethereum, suggesting it would be both time-consuming and financially prohibitive.
Castle Island Ventures partner Nic Carter commended Coin Metric’s research as “enormously important,” highlighting its rigorous empirical analysis as a significant contribution to the literature.
A bankruptcy adjudicator has granted Genesis Global Holdco permission to liquidate approximately £1.3 billion worth of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) shares as part of endeavours to reimburse investors.
During a hearing on 14th February at the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York, conducted via Zoom, Judge Sean Lane endorsed an order allowing Genesis to divest a portion of its investments from Grayscale.
Documents filed in February indicated that Genesis held about £1.6 billion worth of shares in GBTC, Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), and Grayscale Ethereum Classic Trust (ETCG).
According to Genesis’s bankruptcy filings, it claimed to possess around 35 million GBTC shares and 11 million ETHE and ETCG shares.
Grayscale lodged a restricted objection to the proposal for the company to liquidate the trust assets on 9th February, asserting that the sales were “subject to written approval” by the investment firm but did not aim to “delay, impede, or obstruct the Debtors’ sale or transfer of Trust Assets.”
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On 10th January, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sanctioned the conversion of Grayscale’s GBTC to a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund for listing and trading on U.S. exchanges, alongside offerings from 10 other asset managers.
Genesis remarked that the SEC’s approval would ease the redemption of shares in cash.
Genesis disclosed a £21 million settlement with the SEC on 31st January over its purported involvement in offering and vending unregistered securities through the Gemini Earn program.
The company operates independently from Genesis Global Trading, which encountered enforcement proceedings initiated by the New York Department of Financial Services in January.
Shares in cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase have surged by 37% in the past week, riding the wave of a recent upswing in Bitcoin prices.
Analysts anticipate robust performance as the company prepares to unveil its fourth-quarter results on Thursday.
MarketWatch and FactSet’s aggregated data reveals a consensus among analysts, foreseeing a substantial revenue increase for Coinbase in Q4.
Projections suggest a rise of approximately 22% from Q3, reaching $825 million.
The surge in revenue is expected to be fuelled by heightened trading volumes.
Analysts estimate a near doubling from $76 billion in Q3 to $142.7 billion in Q4.
Coinbase is also expected to report a fourth-quarter earnings-per-share of $0.02, marking a turnaround from the $0.01 loss per share reported in the preceding quarter.
This surge coincides with Bitcoin’s price rise of 16.3% over the past week, as reported by Coinmarketcap.
On February 13, competitor Robinhood announced a 24% year-on-year increase in Q4 revenue, driven in part by a surge in cryptocurrency trading revenue, which amounted to $43 million, up 10% year-on-year.
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Despite these positive indicators, some remain cautious about Coinbase’s future performance in 2024.
JPMorgan analysts, in a note to investors on January 22, predicted a decline in Coinbase’s share price, citing concerns about the lacklustre performance of spot Bitcoin ETFs trading.
However, recent data indicates an uptick in Bitcoin ETF flows, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone generating $493 million in inflows on February 13.
Coinbase, serving as custodian for eight of the top 10 spot Bitcoin ETF providers, including BlackRock and iShares, stands to benefit from this resurgence.
The ongoing lawsuit with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) poses another challenge for Coinbase.
Nevertheless, crypto lawyer James Murphy, also known as “MetaLawMan,” remains optimistic about Coinbase’s prospects, expressing confidence that the SEC will lose the case.
Coinbase shares are currently up 14% for the day, buoyed by a broader rally in the cryptocurrency sector, highlighted by Bitcoin’s surge above $50,000 on February 13.
Gold-tracking exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2024 have witnessed significant outflows, amounting to billions, in stark contrast to ETFs tracking the spot price of Bitcoin.
As per an X post from Bloomberg intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas on Feb. 14, the foremost gold ETFs have encountered outflows totaling $2.4 billion thus far in 2024.
Only three among them have experienced marginal inflows this year: VanEck Merk Gold Shares, FT Vest Gold Strategy Target Income ETF, and Proshares UltraShort Gold.
Notably, the most substantial outflows emanated from BlackRock’s iShares Gold Trust Micro and iShares Gold Trust, with $230.4 million and $423.6 million exiting, respectively.
Conversely, the ten sanctioned spot Bitcoin ETFs have garnered cumulative inflows of $3.89 billion and registered unprecedented volume since their inception on Jan. 11, according to preliminary data from Farside.
Commenting on the trend, portfolio manager Bitcoin Munger remarked, “Not only is Bitcoin sucking up funds, but gold is hemorrhaging AUM at an alarming rate across many ETFs.”
Balchunas, however, opined that the migration of gold ETF investors to Bitcoin ETFs wasn’t necessarily prevalent, suggesting it could be attributed to “US equity FOMO” instead.
Bitcoin pioneer Jameson Lopp shared a chart comparing the performance of the two ETFs, raising questions about the stance of gold investor and Bitcoin detractor Peter Schiff.
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The disparity has been exacerbated by the decline in gold prices throughout 2024. The precious metal has depreciated by 3.4% since the year’s commencement, reaching a two-month low of $1,993 per ounce on Feb. 14.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin prices have surged by 23.5% over the same period, hitting a two-year high of $52,483 on Feb. 14.
In a report released earlier in February, the World Gold Council highlighted global gold ETF outflows and a “reduction in speculative positioning” as significant factors contributing to gold’s subdued performance.
It also noted that “Long-term Treasuries and the US dollar, on the back of strong upside US economic surprises, were also headwinds.”
While Bloomberg senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone had previously forecasted gold outperforming Bitcoin in 2024, current observations suggest otherwise.
Bitcoin and gold, often compared for their shared store of value attributes, have historically been favoured investments during economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
Bitcoin surged to new two-year highs on February 14, delighting enthusiasts with a Valentine’s Day surprise.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView revealed a robust rebound in BTC prices from the previous day’s lows of $48,400.
During the Asian trading session, Bitcoin not only recovered from a sudden 4% decline but also soared to long-term highs, aiming for $52,000 at the time of writing.
Typical bullish behaviour saw BTC/USD gaining $1,000 within a single hourly candle, while the overall crypto market capitalisation approached the $2 trillion mark with Bitcoin’s surpassing $1 trillion.
Analysing the short-term setup, renowned trader Skew identified an ongoing reversal of resistance/support levels on the four-hour chart.
He highlighted key trendlines involving exponential moving averages (EMAs) and the relative strength index (RSI) score.
“I think so far this trend is fairly straightforward as long as the market sustains current bullish momentum,” he stated in part of his latest post on X (formerly Twitter).
“4H EMAs will provide nice & concise trend confirmations along with RSI for momentum with current trend, as well when its clear current momentum is lost.
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Key closes often with these trends are daily open & weekly open.”
On Binance, Skew additionally observed that spot buyer interest had anticipated institutional inflows via the United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
As reported by Cointelegraph, these ETFs continue to gain traction, with nine providers acquiring more BTC daily.
Taking a broader perspective, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital suggested that events were unfolding in accordance with the classic bull markets for Bitcoin.
The timing of the BTC price resurgence towards all-time highs was “right on schedule,” he informed X followers this week.
Drawing parallels to 2020, Rekt Capital highlighted the cathartic impact of the block subsidy halving, with BTC/USD typically commencing a “pre-halving rally” two months in advance.
The next halving is anticipated in mid-April.
Countless Bitcoin price predictions for 2024 and 2025 indicate a very bullish scenario for BTC.
Bitcoin, the first and most well-known cryptocurrency, has seen a tumultuous journey since its inception in 2009. Its price has experienced dramatic fluctuations, reflecting a range of factors including investor sentiment, regulatory news, and changes in the broader financial ecosystem. As we look towards 2024 and 2025, Bitcoin price predictions are becoming increasingly important for investors trying to navigate the volatile crypto market.
The Factors Influencing Bitcoin Price Predictions
Before diving into specific Bitcoin price predictions for 2024 and 2025, it’s crucial to understand the factors that can influence its value. These include:
- Adoption Rates: As more businesses and consumers adopt Bitcoin for transactions, its value could increase due to heightened demand.
- Regulatory Environment: Regulations can have a significant impact on Bitcoin’s price. Positive regulatory developments can lead to price increases, while stringent regulations may have the opposite effect.
- Technological Advances: Innovations, such as improvements in blockchain technology, can enhance Bitcoin’s functionality and appeal, potentially boosting its price.
- Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment, often driven by news and social media, can cause sudden and dramatic price movements.
- Macroeconomic Factors: Global economic trends, including inflation rates and currency fluctuations, can influence Bitcoin’s attractiveness as an investment.
Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2024
Looking ahead to 2024, Bitcoin price predictions are mixed, reflecting the diverse views of analysts. Some experts are bullish, citing increasing adoption of cryptocurrencies and potential technological advancements as key drivers of growth. They argue that as Bitcoin becomes more mainstream, its price could soar, potentially reaching new all-time highs. On the other hand, skeptics point to regulatory uncertainties and the volatile nature of the crypto market as reasons for caution, suggesting that while growth is possible, it may be more moderate.
A consensus view among many analysts is that Bitcoin could experience significant growth in 2024, with prices possibly ranging between $50,000 and $100,000. This prediction assumes continued growth in adoption, particularly by institutional investors, and a favorable regulatory environment. However, it’s important to note that the crypto market is notoriously difficult to predict, and unexpected developments could lead to divergent outcomes.
Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2025
Looking further ahead to 2025, Bitcoin price predictions become even more speculative, given the additional uncertainty about future developments. However, many experts believe that the long-term outlook for Bitcoin is positive, citing the limited supply of Bitcoin and increasing interest from both retail and institutional investors as factors that could drive prices higher.
Some bullish forecasts suggest that Bitcoin could exceed $100,000 by 2025, driven by continued adoption and the perception of Bitcoin as a “digital gold” that can act as a hedge against inflation. Others, however, caution that Bitcoin’s price could be affected by technological challenges, competition from other cryptocurrencies, or changes in the regulatory landscape, which could limit its upside potential.
Navigating the Uncertainty
Investors considering Bitcoin as part of their portfolio should be prepared for volatility and uncertainty. While Bitcoin price predictions for 2024 and 2025 offer insight into potential future trends, they are based on assumptions that may or may not materialize. Therefore, a diversified investment strategy that includes a range of assets may help mitigate risk.
Summary
Bitcoin price predictions for 2024 and 2025 highlight the potential for significant growth but also underscore the inherent uncertainties in the cryptocurrency market. Factors such as adoption rates, regulatory developments, and global economic trends will play a crucial role in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Investors should stay informed, consider a range of viewpoints, and be prepared for both opportunities and challenges as the crypto landscape continues to evolve. Whether Bitcoin will reach the lofty heights predicted by some or encounter unexpected hurdles remains to be seen, but its journey will undoubtedly be closely watched by the financial world.
Bitcoin (BTC) suffered sudden losses ahead of the Feb. 13 opening on Wall Street, as United States inflation data delivered a blow to risky assets.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked a 3.8% decline in BTC price for the day, reaching a low of $48,435 on Bitstamp.
Bitcoin reacted negatively to the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which surpassed expectations.
The month-on-month CPI stood at 0.3%, with the year-on-year figure at 3.1% — exceeding predictions by 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively.
“The index for shelter continued to rise in January, increasing 0.6 percent and contributing over two-thirds of the monthly all items increase.
The food index increased 0.4 percent in January, as the food at home index increased 0.4 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.5 percent over the month,” read an official press release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“In contrast, the energy index fell 0.9 percent over the month due in large part to the decline in the gasoline index.”
Markets promptly began reevaluating the probability of the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates, postponing expectations from March to later in the year.
The latest figures from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicated only an 8.5% likelihood of a rate cut in March, compared to 17.5% on Feb. 12.
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“This inflation reading was much hotter than expected all around the board,” commented trading resource The Kobeissi Letter on X (formerly Twitter).
“Core CPI was expected to fall and it didn’t while CPI inflation came in 20 bps above expectations. A March rate cut is likely gone.”
Kobeissi noted that avoiding a premature rate cut, which would bolster risky assets including crypto, was the Fed’s “top priority.”
The resurgence of inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) did little to stabilize Bitcoin’s situation.
$49,000 remained elusive, while outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) amounted to around 2,400 BTC ($117 million), according to data from crypto intelligence firm Arkham.
Despite this, popular trader Daan Crypto Trades noted positive trends in ETF flows, which were absorbing BTC supply around twelve times faster than new coins entered the market.
GBTC’s net asset value (NAV) flipped positive relative to Bitcoin for the first time in almost three years last week.
Bitcoin is anticipated to surge to a minimum of £200,000 in the forthcoming years and could even surpass half a million pounds, according to a prominent analyst.
In his most recent update on the long-term BTC price trajectory, advisor and early Bitcoin advocate Tuur Demeester projected BTC/USD to reach up to £600,000 by 2026.
Demeester attributed Bitcoin’s ascent to “trillions” of pounds in bailouts, suggesting that the cryptocurrency’s rally to £50,000 this week is indicative of a growing confidence in its future appreciation.
The bullish arguments for BTC’s price surge revolve around the significant events of April’s block subsidy halving and the recent launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
These developments reduce the emission of new Bitcoin and exert additional pressure on its available supply.
However, Demeester highlights macroeconomic factors as crucial drivers behind Bitcoin’s trajectory. He stated, “In ’21 bitcoin topped at £69k. I’m targeting £200-£600k by 2026. Fueled by £ trillions in global bailouts/stimulus.”
Discussion on social media platform X echoed concerns about systemic issues in the U.S. banking system and the government’s potential need to provide liquidity to prevent their decline.
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Cointelegraph reported on the possibility of risk-asset price volatility in March due to these ongoing challenges.
Demeester suggested that Bitcoin’s next multiyear peak could occur anywhere from 2025 onwards, and he anticipates a surge in mainstream interest, particularly after Bitcoin’s recent milestone of £50,000.
He stated, “I expect for retail to start waking up soon. Remember, there is no fever like bitcoin fever.”
Demeester’s track record in the Bitcoin sphere spans over a decade, with accurate predictions of Bitcoin’s recent all-time high between £50,000 and £100,000 in 2019 and 2020.
However, not all analysts share Demeester’s optimism. Some foresee a less rosy future for Bitcoin and altcoins, with predictions of a market reversal, including a potential drop to £30,000.
One such voice is popular trader Il Capo of Crypto, who warned of a potential rejection of BTC from the £50,000 level while altcoins continue to surge, indicating a market divergence.
Despite the recent bullish sentiment, Il Capo of Crypto has maintained a BTC price target of just £12,000 for most of the past year.
The freshly introduced spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have wrapped up their inaugural 20 trading sessions, attaining the £10 billion milestone in assets under management (AUM).
As per figures from BitMEX Research, net flows for the nine ETFs hit £2.7 billion on Jan. 9, led by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, presently holding Bitcoin (BTC) valued at £4 billion.
The runner-up is Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, managing over £3.4 billion in BTC.
The ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF has also crossed the billion-pound milestone, housing approximately £1 billion worth in its portfolio.
In contrast, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has seen outflows of £6.3 billion over the past 30 days, with £51.8 million in outflows recorded on Feb. 9, marking its lowest daily volume of capital withdrawals since conversion.
“I thought the Nine would get a bit weaker as GBTC outflows subsided but they’re getting stronger,” remarked Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas on X.
Invesco experienced an outflow, becoming the first non-GBTC product to do so.
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Over the forthcoming months, Bitcoin ETF flows are anticipated to surge as trading firms conclude their due diligence on the investment vehicles.
Bitcoin’s price stabilised above technical support in January, “including its 200-day moving average (£29,902) and on-chain mean (£33,487),” according to a recent analysis from ARK Invest.
Throughout the month, the cryptocurrency price increased by 0.6% to £42,585.
ARK Invest’s bullish perspective suggests that Bitcoin is supplanting gold as a risk-off asset. “Bitcoin’s price relative to that of gold has increased twenty-fold in the last 7 years.
In January 2024, Bitcoin could buy ~20 troy oz of gold, compared to 1 troy oz in April 2017,” notes the analysis. “We believe this trend should continue as Bitcoin increases its role in financial markets.”
Given the macroeconomic context, the asset manager foresees that “as inflation cools and real rates rise, Bitcoin should remain antifragile as banks continue to lose deposits.”
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) authorised Bitcoin ETF applications from ARK 21Shares, Invesco Galaxy, VanEck, WisdomTree, Fidelity, Valkyrie, BlackRock and Grayscale on Jan. 10, over a decade after Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss applied to launch the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust in 2013.