Bitcoin is on the verge of reaching an unprecedented milestone, as Bitwise, a senior research analyst, predicts that the cryptocurrency will achieve a new all-time high of $80,000 in 2024.
This bullish projection is part of a larger set of predictions for the crypto industry in 2024, as outlined by Bitwise’s Ryan Rasmussen in a post on X (formerly Twitter) on December 13.
One of the standout trends in these predictions is the remarkable growth of the stablecoin industry. Bitwise anticipates that stablecoins will soon surpass Visa’s payment volume, recognizing these dollar and asset-pegged tokens as one of crypto’s most significant innovations.
By the third quarter of 2023, Visa had processed over $9 trillion in payments, while stablecoin trading volume had already exceeded $5 trillion.
Rasmussen highlighted the remarkable rise of stablecoins, with their market capitalization growing from nearly nothing to a staggering $137 billion within just four years.
Given this trajectory, he expects stablecoins in 2024 to continue expanding in both trading volume and utility.
Bitwise’s optimism regarding stablecoins is not unique, as Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire also expressed confidence in their growing demand.
Allaire noted the increasing appetite for internet-enabled digital dollars, emphasizing the need for such a secure and accessible digital currency.
Furthermore, asset manager Van Eck predicts that the total stablecoin market capitalization will reach $200 billion by the end of 2024.
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Rasmussen also foresees a prosperous year ahead for Bitcoin, projecting a price exceeding $80,000 in 2024.
He attributes this optimism to the anticipated launch of the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) and the upcoming halving event in April, both of which are expected to drive significant price growth.
However, Bitcoin price predictions for 2024 vary widely among analysts and experts.
Some anticipate an average price of at least $100,000, while others set targets as high as $250,000 or even $1 million.
Bitwise speculates that not only will the spot Bitcoin ETF be approved, but its launch will be the most successful ETF launch in history, amassing $72 billion in assets under management within the next five years.
Bitwise is among 13 financial institutions seeking approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission.
In addition to Bitcoin, Ethereum is poised for substantial improvements in 2024, with Bitwise expecting a 100% increase in revenue to $5 billion.
This prediction hinges on the EIP-4484 upgrade, which could reduce gas costs on the Ethereum network to below $0.01.
Beyond crypto assets, Coinbase is predicted to thrive during the anticipated bull market of 2024, with Bitwise forecasting a remarkable 100% growth in revenue for the exchange platform, surpassing Wall Street’s expectations tenfold.
Bitcoin is showing promising signs of a new bull run, with daily gains of 7% driving its price higher. This surge in price follows a brief sell-off, and on-chain metrics suggest that the upward momentum may continue.
After reaching $44,000 earlier in the month, Bitcoin experienced a cooling-off period, dropping to nearly $40,000. However, conditions have since improved.
Philip Swift, the creator of Look Into Bitcoin, pointed out on December 13 that profit-taking has increased as BTC/USD reached its highest levels in 19 months.
He highlighted the “Value Days Destroyed” (VDD) metric, which measures Bitcoin selling activity based on the age of the coins being sold and the current BTC price.
On December 11, VDD reached its highest level since May 2021, indicating that some long-term holders (HODL’ers) are taking profits.
Recent selling activity has been driven by short-term holders (STHs), who are typically more speculative in their trading approach.
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Meanwhile, analysts see potential for Bitcoin’s price to continue rising towards the key resistance level around $50,000.
Matthew Hyland, an analyst, pointed to the relative strength index (RSI) on daily timeframes, which has displayed a bullish divergence with price, indicating potential upward movement.
Additionally, there is a notable influx of capital into both Bitcoin and Ethereum, reminiscent of late 2020 when Bitcoin first broke the $20,000 mark and entered a phase of price discovery.
This renewed interest from investors suggests confidence in the cryptocurrency market.
Social media commentator Ali expressed optimism about the current market conditions, echoing the sentiment that significant capital inflows are returning to both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Others share this bullish outlook, with BitQuant emphasizing that Bitcoin could break through the $42,000 to $45,000 channel by the end of the coming week, with no strong resistances in sight until the $63,000 mark.
In summary, Bitcoin is showing signs of a robust bull run, with on-chain metrics, profit-taking, and increased capital inflows contributing to its recent price surge.
Analysts and commentators are optimistic about the cryptocurrency’s potential to continue its upward trajectory, with key resistance levels in focus as Bitcoin aims for new all-time highs.
Wikipedia co-founder Jimmy Wales stirred up controversy when he took to X (formerly Twitter) on December 11 to mock Bitcoin, proudly stating that he has never lost money due to forgetting his bank password, unlike some Bitcoin users who have lost access to their wallets.
However, his comments did not sit well with the broader Bitcoin and cryptocurrency community, who swiftly responded to his remarks.
In his sarcastic X post, Wales facetiously claimed to have forgotten his bank password and subsequently lost all his cash.
He then proceeded to taunt the Bitcoin community, asserting that this scenario would never happen with banks because they function reliably, unlike Bitcoin.
Wales’ remarks were met with criticism from the Bitcoin community, who reminded him that while traditional banks may indeed be reliable for some, they are not accessible to everyone worldwide.
Alex Gladstein, the Chief Strategy Officer at the Human Rights Foundation, highlighted that banks primarily function effectively in countries with a strong rule of law and stable currencies, and only about one billion people out of the world’s eight billion population have access to banking services.
Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, emphasized that even those with bank accounts are not immune to financial hardships.
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She cited the example of a Lebanese doctor who lost 95% of their savings due to hyperinflation, highlighting the vulnerability of traditional financial systems.
Bitcoin proponents, including Samson Mow, seized the opportunity to point out the irony of Wales’ comments, given Wikipedia’s dependence on donations to sustain its operations.
Mow suggested that if Wikipedia had invested in Bitcoin as he had recommended a few years ago, they might not have to rely on continuous fundraising.
Some in the Bitcoin community drew attention to the centralized nature of the banking system, reiterating that it does not cater to the needs of everyone.
Danny Scott, CEO of Bitcoin exchange Coin Corner, argued that Wales was comparing two different scenarios and likened the situation more to a user forgetting their password for a Bitcoin exchange, which can be reset, rather than a true loss of funds.
He emphasized that losing physical cash, just like Bitcoin, results in irreversible loss.
BlackRock has made a significant alteration to its Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) application, aiming to facilitate participation by major Wall Street banks.
This change involves the creation of new fund shares using cash, rather than relying solely on cryptocurrency assets.
The innovative “in-kind redemption prepay” model is designed to enable banking giants like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs to become authorized participants in the fund.
This would allow them to bypass restrictions that currently prohibit them from directly holding Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies on their balance sheets.
This transformative model was presented jointly by six members of BlackRock and three from Nasdaq during a meeting held on November 28th with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
If granted approval, this development could prove to be a game-changer for Wall Street institutions with trillion-dollar balance sheets, as it opens up a new avenue for their involvement.
Many highly regulated banks are presently barred from directly holding cryptocurrencies.
Under the revised model, authorized participants (APs) would transfer cash to a broker-dealer, which would then convert it into Bitcoin before entrusting it to the ETF’s custody provider, Coinbase Custody in BlackRock’s case.
This arrangement also effectively shifts risk away from APs and places it more in the hands of market makers.
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Furthermore, BlackRock asserts that this new model enhances resistance to market manipulation, which has previously been a key factor in the SEC’s rejection of spot Bitcoin ETF applications.
Additionally, BlackRock contends that the new ETF structure will bolster investor protections, reduce transaction costs, and promote simplicity and consistency within the broader Bitcoin ETF ecosystem.
According to a filing with the SEC, BlackRock had its third meeting with the SEC, led by Gary Gensler, on December 11.
Notably, this meeting on November 28 with the SEC was a follow-up to an initial meeting held on November 20, where BlackRock introduced its original in-kind redemption model.
The SEC is obligated to make a decision on BlackRock’s application by January 15, with the final deadline set for March 15.
In the meantime, ETF analysts anticipate that the SEC will issue decisions on several pending spot Bitcoin ETF applications sometime between January 5 and 10.
Grayscale, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco Galaxy, Fidelity, and Hashdex are among the other financial firms eagerly awaiting the SEC’s decisions during this period.
Bitcoin’s price has remained below its 2023 high, indicating that the $44,000 resistance level has proven stronger than initially anticipated by investors.
Despite trading below $42,000, there is still potential for Bitcoin to reach $50,000 and beyond. In fact, signs suggest that this may be more likely than not.
A closer look at Bitcoin derivatives metrics reveals that traders have remained optimistic, even after a 6.9% drop.
However, the question remains: is this optimism justified for further gains?
On December 11, a significant $127 million liquidation of leveraged long Bitcoin futures occurred.
While this may seem substantial, it accounts for less than 1% of the total open interest, which encompasses the value of all outstanding contracts. Nevertheless, this liquidation triggered a 7% correction in less than 20 minutes.
Some argue that derivatives markets played a key role in this negative price movement, but it’s important to note that Bitcoin’s price rebounded by 4.2% in the following six trading hours after hitting a low of $40,200 on December 11.
This suggests that the impact of forceful liquidation orders had dissipated, disproving the idea of a crash solely driven by futures markets.
To assess whether Bitcoin whales and market makers remain bullish, traders can analyze the Bitcoin futures premium, also known as the basis rate.
In stable markets, these contracts typically trade at a premium of 5% to 10% due to their extended settlement period.
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Data shows that despite the 9% intraday price drop on December 11, the BTC futures premium remained above the 10% neutral-to-bullish threshold throughout.
This indicates that there was no significant excess demand for shorts, as the metric did not drop into the neutral 5% to 10% range.
Examining options markets is another way to gauge investor sentiment. The 25% delta skew is a useful indicator that reflects whether arbitrage desks and market makers are charging excessively for upside or downside protection.
The BTC options skew has remained neutral since December 5, signaling balanced costs for both call and put options, showing resilience even after the 6.1% correction since December 10.
Furthermore, data on perpetual contracts, which include an embedded rate recalculated every eight hours, reveals a modest increase in the positive funding rate between December 8 and December 10.
This suggests increased demand for leverage among long positions, but the increase is not significant enough to burden most traders.
Overall, the recent rally to $44,700 and subsequent correction to $41,300 appear to have been primarily driven by the spot market.
This development reduces the likelihood of cascading liquidations due to excessive optimism related to the expectation of a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval.
In summary, Bitcoin bulls can take comfort in the fact that derivatives metrics indicate that positive momentum has not waned despite the price correction.
Bitcoin speculators rushed to sell their holdings as the BTC price experienced a correction towards the $40,000 mark, according to the latest on-chain data.
On December 12th, figures from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode revealed that short-term holders (STHs), defined as entities holding BTC for 155 days or less, collectively offloaded over $2 billion worth of BTC.
This came as Bitcoin witnessed its most significant single-day drop of 2023, reaching a peak decline of 8.1%. The data was confirmed by Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
Responding to the price drop, the more speculative segment of Bitcoin investors began reducing their exposure to the market, displaying signs of uncertainty about its future.
Glassnode’s data disclosed that on December 11th, STHs sent $1.93 billion worth of Bitcoin to exchanges, followed by another $2.08 billion on the subsequent day.
Both of these days marked record highs in terms of selling pressure from STHs, with entities in both profit and loss positions contributing to the trend.
The last time single-day selling exceeded the $2 billion threshold was in June 2022, triggered by concerns over the impending collapse of blockchain firm Celsius.
James Van Straten, a research and data analyst at crypto insights firm CryptoSlate, highlighted the significance of the week’s STH movements, noting that $2 billion was sold in total, with $1.1 billion resulting in losses.
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This mainly impacted retail investors who had bought Bitcoin between December 6th and December 13th, likely due to the allure of Bitcoin’s 150% year-to-date gain.
While the trading volumes in BTC terms were less substantial, the December 12th figures marked the largest since the beginning of July when BTC/USD had just rebounded above the $30,000 level after dipping to $25,000.
Glassnode also pointed to various on-chain indicators suggesting that STHs might be growing wary of the bullish trend.
Profit-taking was noted around the month’s 19-month high near $45,000, and the researchers suggested that there might be a potential saturation of demand or exhaustion in play.
One of the key indicators highlighted was the Mayer Multiple, which gauges the relationship between the current spot price and the 200-week moving average.
The Mayer Multiple was approaching 1.5, a level that has historically acted as resistance during Bitcoin’s bull markets.
Glassnode stated that the current Mayer Multiple of 1.47 is close to the ~1.5 level, which has historically acted as resistance in previous cycles, including the November 2021 all-time high.
This level has not been breached for 33.5 months, the longest period since the 2013-2016 bear market.
Bitcoin’s price experienced a 5% dip within the last 24 hours, settling at $41,645 on December 11.
However, despite this sudden correction, technical indicators and on-chain data suggest that Bitcoin remains robust, as bulls actively work to push the price back above the $44,000 mark.
On-chain data indicates that Bitcoin’s price had become “over-extended.” It plummeted by as much as 7.2%, reaching $40,300 on Coinbase, which led to discussions among analysts.
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, an on-chain analytics firm, pointed out that Bitcoin’s price had become “overheated” following its recent surge above the psychologically significant $40,000 level.
Further data from the on-chain data analysis firm Lookintobitcoin revealed signs of exhaustion among bullish investors.
According to their December 2023 report, Bitcoin’s price had reached its near-term target as per the golden ratio multiplier, a metric based on the Crosby Ratio.
This highlighted that Bitcoin’s near-term price had become “over-extended,” necessitating a correction or at least a slowdown.
In essence, Bitcoin had entered overbought conditions above $40,000, with its relative strength index (RSI) indicating overbought status since December 5.
This early warning signaled a potential reduction in buying pressure as traders began to perceive the rally’s loss of momentum and took profits.
The primary challenge for Bitcoin’s price remains the formidable resistance at the $44,000 supply zone.
The Lookintobitcoin golden ratio multiplier indicator indicated that the 1.6 multiplier target had been reached around this area. Bitcoin has struggled to convincingly breach this level over the past week, facing significant rejection.
The intensity of the resistance at $44,000 is underscored by on-chain data from IntoTheBlock’s “in/out of the money around price” (IOMAP) model.
This data indicates that the $43,346–$44,627 price range is where approximately 585.77 BTC was previously acquired by approximately 1.43 million addresses.
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Any attempts to surpass this level would likely encounter aggressive selling from this group of sellers.
Nonetheless, this ongoing correction may be viewed as a bear trap within an overall bullish trend that has developed over recent months.
Data from crypto market intelligence firm Santiment indicates that Bitcoin’s exchange outflows are on the rise, with the BTC exchange flow balance now at -347.
This negative reading implies that outflows are surpassing inflows, a sign that investors are more inclined to hold than sell, which is generally considered bullish.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has remained above all major moving averages, and these indicators have continued their upward trajectories, providing strong support levels.
The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator also remains in positive territory, with the MACD line positioned above the signal line, favoring further upward movement in Bitcoin’s price.
Therefore, it is likely that Bitcoin’s price will continue to rise from its current levels, with buyers targeting a breakout above $44,000.
A successful break beyond this level could propel Bitcoin toward the psychological milestone of $50,000, either in early 2024 when the United States Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to decide on spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund applications or during the next Bitcoin halving event.
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, a prominent critic of digital assets within the United States government, has recently revealed that five additional senators have pledged their support as cosponsors for her bill, which aims to combat money laundering within the digital asset sphere.
In her announcement on December 11, Senator Warren disclosed that Senators Raphael Warnock, Laphonza Butler, Chris Van Hollen, John Hickenlooper, and Ben Ray Luján have thrown their weight behind the Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act.
This legislation was reintroduced in July and is laser-focused on curbing the illicit use of cryptocurrency for money laundering and the financing of terrorism.
Warren expressed her satisfaction with the growing support, stating, “I’m glad that five new senators are joining the fight to take action, including three members of the Banking Committee.”
She emphasized that their bipartisan bill represents the most stringent proposal currently on the table for combating the illicit use of cryptocurrency while also providing regulators with additional tools to enhance their oversight.
Even before this latest support, the bill had garnered backing from both sides of the aisle and received endorsement from various senators and organizations.
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Notable supporters included the Bank Policy Institute, Massachusetts Bankers Association, Transparency International U.S., Global Financial Integrity, National District Attorneys Association, Major County Sheriffs of America, the National Consumer Law Center, and the National Consumers League.
Furthermore, Senator Warren reiterated a claim made during a December 6 hearing before the Senate Banking Committee and subsequent interviews.
She asserted that approximately half of North Korea’s missile program was funded through digital assets, underscoring the urgency of addressing money laundering in the cryptocurrency space.
Critics of the bill have argued that lawmakers should focus their efforts on targeting bad actors who misuse the technology rather than regulating digital assets and their underlying infrastructure.
However, cybersecurity expert Steve Weisman lent his support to the legislation during a Senate hearing in November, labeling it a “no-brainer” in addressing concerns related to money laundering.
In summary, Senator Elizabeth Warren continues to lead the charge in addressing the illicit use of digital assets through her Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act, gaining increased support from fellow senators and organizations, despite some dissenting voices in the ongoing debate.
Bitcoin Core developer Luke Dashjr has refuted any involvement in the inclusion of Bitcoin inscriptions as a cybersecurity concern on the United States National Vulnerability Database’s (NVD) Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures (CVE) list.
This controversy arose when Dashjr, in a December 6th post on X (formerly Twitter), alleged that inscriptions, utilized by the Ordinals protocol and BRC-20 creators for embedding data in satoshis, were exploiting a Bitcoin Core vulnerability, thus “spamming the blockchain.”
Several days later, Bitcoin inscriptions surfaced on the U.S. vulnerability database as part of the CVE list on December 9th, describing it as a security flaw linked to the development of the Ordinals protocol in 2022.
Nonetheless, Dashjr, despite his vocal criticism of Bitcoin Ordinals, asserted that he played no role in adding inscriptions to the vulnerability database’s CVE list.
The CVE list is structured to allow any developer to report a vulnerability, subject to approval by the CVE Assignment Team for public awareness purposes.
As of December 11th, the NVD updated the listing, assigning inscriptions a base severity score of “5.3 Medium.”
This rating indicates that the exploitation of this vulnerability offers “very limited” access to a network or presents challenging hurdles for executing denial-of-service attacks, according to Atlassian, a software firm.
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Dashjr explained that the CVE list’s 5.3 score primarily resulted from the vulnerability’s minimal impact on the availability of the Bitcoin network.
Nevertheless, he contended that the score might underestimate its long-term consequences, suggesting that if the availability impact were classified as “High,” the CVSS base score would reach 7.5.
The debate surrounding Bitcoin inscriptions continues to unfold on social media platforms.
While some Bitcoin enthusiasts argue that inscriptions are overloading the network, Ordinals proponents, including Udi Wertheimer, co-founder of Taproot Wizards, maintain that Ordinals are essential for the future adoption and revenue growth of the Bitcoin network.
The Bitcoin network has experienced increased congestion in recent months due to heightened interest in Ordinals’ nonfungible token inscriptions and BRC-20 token minting.
Data from mempool.space indicates over 275,000 unconfirmed transactions, with average medium-priority transaction costs surging from approximately $1.50 to around $14.
Patching the so-called inscriptions bug could potentially limit future Ordinals inscriptions on the network.
Google, the tech giant, is set to revise its cryptocurrency-related advertising policy to include advertisements for cryptocurrency trusts, starting from the end of January 2024.
This change coincides with the anticipated approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States in the same month.
In a policy update dated December 6, Google announced that its advertising policy for cryptocurrencies and related products would be adjusted on January 29, 2024, to permit advertisements from “advertisers offering Cryptocurrency Coin Trust targeting the United States.”
Cryptocurrency coin trusts were mentioned as examples of financial products that enable investors to trade shares in trusts holding substantial amounts of digital currency, which likely encompasses ETFs.
Google emphasized that advertisers must comply with local laws in the regions they target with their ads. This policy will apply universally to all accounts advertising these products.
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Prospective advertisers for cryptocurrency trusts will need to be Google-certified, which involves obtaining the necessary licenses from local authorities and ensuring that their products, landing pages, and ads adhere to the legal requirements of the respective countries or regions where they seek certification.
While Google already allows advertising for certain cryptocurrency and related products, it continues to prohibit ads for cryptocurrency or nonfungible token (NFT)-based gambling platforms, initial coin offerings (ICOs), decentralized finance protocols, and services offering trading signals.
This policy shift aligns with Bloomberg’s ETF analysts’ prediction of a 90% likelihood of the approval of a U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF by January 10, 2024, with the potential for several pending applications to be approved simultaneously.
Currently, there are 13 Bitcoin ETF applicants, and detailed information about their approval processes remains limited.
Numerous fund managers, including BlackRock, Grayscale, and Fidelity, have reportedly engaged with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to discuss crucial technical aspects of their ETF proposals.
The cryptocurrency market is optimistic about these approvals, as evidenced by Bitcoin’s nearly 74% price increase in the past 90 days. Some analysts even anticipate a new all-time high for Bitcoin in 2024.