Bitcoin has defied predictions and gained almost 170% in value since the European Central Bank (ECB) sounded the alarm about its impending “irrelevance.”
On November 30, 2022, when the ECB published a blog post declaring Bitcoin’s demise, the cryptocurrency was trading at just $16,400.
The post argued that even these levels were just a pitstop on the way to further price declines.
According to the ECB’s post, Bitcoin’s value had peaked at $69,000 in November 2021 before plummeting to $17,000 by mid-June 2022.
The post suggested that Bitcoin’s apparent stabilization was merely an artificially induced last gasp before its inevitable descent into irrelevance.
Contrary to the ECB’s predictions, Bitcoin continued to thrive. After briefly revisiting the $16,400 mark in mid-December, it made a swift comeback, surging by 70% in the first quarter of 2023 alone.
A year after the ECB’s premature obituary, Bitcoin was trading at its highest since April 2022, reaching $43,800, marking a 166% increase from the time the ECB issued its warning.
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Crypto enthusiasts and experts expressed amusement at the ECB’s erroneous assessment.
Philip Swift, creator of the statistics platform Look Into Bitcoin, found satisfaction in the situation.
Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at crypto education resource Galaxy, questioned the ECB’s credibility and wondered about other areas where the bank might be wrong.
The ECB has a reputation as a Bitcoin skeptic, with its views on the cryptocurrency market often causing embarrassment. ECB Chief Christine Lagarde, in a recent statement, revealed her low opinion of cryptocurrencies and noted that her own son had disregarded her advice on crypto investments and suffered losses as a result.
Despite its skepticism toward Bitcoin, the ECB is actively exploring the possibility of launching a central bank digital currency (CBDC).
However, this initiative has faced scrutiny, especially after Lagarde admitted that a CBDC could offer enhanced transaction control, sparking concerns about privacy and surveillance within the financial system.
Bitcoin’s remarkable resilience serves as a reminder of the unpredictable nature of the cryptocurrency market and the challenges faced by traditional financial institutions in understanding and adapting to it.
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Riot Blockchain, a prominent Bitcoin mining company, has announced a significant expansion of its mining operations in preparation for the Bitcoin halving event scheduled for April 2024.
The company is acquiring 66,560 mining rigs from MicroBT, a leading manufacturer, marking one of the most substantial increases in hash rate capacity in Riot’s history.
This substantial purchase amounts to $290.5 million, averaging around $4,360 per machine.
The option to purchase these additional miners was part of Riot’s initial agreement with MicroBT when it initially procured 33,280 machines back in June.
This arrangement has been revised, allowing Riot the option to acquire up to 265,000 more miners under the same terms as the recent order.
Riot’s CEO, Jason Les, referred to this purchase as the “largest order of hash rate” in the company’s history and anticipates that the updated agreement will further enhance Riot’s mining performance.
Of the newly acquired miners, 72% will be MicroBT’s latest model, the M66S, boasting an impressive hash rate of 250 terahashes per second (TH/s).
The remaining machines will include the M66 (14,770) and M56S++ (3,720) models, adding a total of 18 exahashes per second (EH/s) to Riot’s mining operations.
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Riot plans to deploy the first batch of 33,280 miners from the June purchase in the first quarter of 2024, while the newly acquired 66,560 miners will be deployed in the second half of the same year.
The company expects its self-mining hash rate capacity to reach 38 EH/s once all 99,840 rigs are fully operational, which they anticipate happening in the second half of 2025.
Riot’s motivation for this significant expansion is primarily attributed to the upcoming Bitcoin halving event in April 2024, which is expected to impact Bitcoin mining rewards.
This news has driven positive investor sentiment, with Riot’s stock surging nearly 9% on December 4, leading to an impressive year-to-date growth of over 345% in 2023.
In other developments in the Bitcoin mining industry, CleanSpark reported mining 666 BTC in November, showcasing a 5.2% increase from October and a substantial 24% growth from the same period in 2022.
CleanSpark attributes this growth partly to rising transaction fees and the growing interest in Bitcoin’s various use cases.
TeraWulf, listed on Nasdaq, mined 323 BTC in November, a 3% increase from October, primarily driven by higher network transaction fees.
Additionally, Hut 8 completed its merger with Bitcoin Corp to form Hut 8 Corp, commencing trading on Nasdaq and the Toronto Stock Exchange on December 4, albeit with a less-than-ideal debut performance, experiencing a notable decline in its stock price on the same day.
Bitcoin futures open interest on the global derivatives giant, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), has surged to $5.2 billion, just $200 million shy of its previous all-time high in late October 2021.
Over the last 30 days, open interest in CME’s Bitcoin futures has grown from $3.63 billion to $5.20 billion, mirroring Bitcoin’s 26% gain during the same period, with the cryptocurrency currently trading at slightly above $44,000.
Between October 1 and 21, 2021, CME’s Bitcoin futures open interest saw a substantial increase from $1.46 billion to $5.45 billion.
This rapid growth in open interest coincided with a significant price surge for Bitcoin.
IG Australia analyst Tony Sycamore noted that the surge in open interest indicates renewed interest in Bitcoin, but it does not provide insight into the positioning of CME traders.
Sycamore referred to CME’s November 28 report to the United States Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which revealed that “big players” on the platform were net short at the time, with 20,724 short positions compared to 18,979 long positions.
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Sycamore emphasized that it’s crucial to wait for CME’s upcoming report on December 12 to determine the current positioning of these major players.
He stated, “What we can’t see right now is whether the big players have gone from a net short to a net long.
If we saw the market getting extremely long, you’d be very worried about a snapback. The market that we could see last week was short, so I don’t think we’re at that point yet.”
The recent surge in Bitcoin’s price is not solely due to speculation regarding the SEC’s potential approval of spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) products, according to Sycamore.
He believes that other factors, such as the crypto market’s connection to the macroeconomic environment, play a more significant role in driving price action.
This includes the Federal Reserve’s signals to begin cutting interest rates, which can impact Bitcoin’s performance.
In November, CME overtook Binance in Bitcoin futures open interest, signaling increased interest from traditional financial institutions in crypto products.
While many analysts anticipate a spot ETF approval to lead to a significant price increase for Bitcoin, some are cautious, predicting a “sell the news” event in the days and weeks following such an approval.
Hashdex, one of the 13 asset management firms vying for a coveted spot in the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) market, is optimistic about the prospects for the first spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States.
According to Hashdex’s U.S. and Europe head of product, Dramane Meite, the anticipated arrival of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. has shifted from a question of “if” to a matter of “when.”
In a 2024 outlook report released on December 4, Meite expressed the belief that U.S. investors will gain access to a spot Bitcoin ETF by the second quarter of the upcoming year, with a spot Ether ETF likely to follow suit.
Currently, Hashdex is among the 13 asset managers that have submitted applications for a spot Bitcoin ETF to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Additionally, Hashdex has proposed a hybrid Ether ETF, incorporating both futures and spot contracts, to the regulatory authority.
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Although Bloomberg ETF analysts, James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, have estimated a 90% likelihood of spot Bitcoin ETF approvals in the days leading up to January 10, 2024, it is important to note that the separate Form S-1 application must also receive approval before an ETF can be launched.
Seyffart has emphasized that there could be a period of several weeks or even months between approval and the actual ETF launch.
Companies typically use Form S-1 to inform the SEC about proposed rule changes, requiring endorsement from the agency’s Division of Corporation Finance.
Meite, in Hashdex’s report, highlighted that the introduction of spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs would mark a significant milestone, as established legacy asset managers with strong brand recognition would be offering cryptocurrency products to their customers for the first time.
He further speculated that this development could unlock a colossal $50 trillion market, surpassing the combined sizes of Europe, Canada, and Brazil—the only three global markets currently featuring spot crypto exchange-traded products.
In all likelihood, the majority of interest in single-asset ETFs would gravitate towards Bitcoin and Ether due to their widespread recognition and minimal differentiation among incumbent offerings.
In October 2023, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, received a noteworthy infusion of $100,000 in seed funding for its Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF), as reported in their recent filing with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
The SEC disclosure shed light on the specifics of this investment, revealing that an undisclosed investor had committed to purchasing 4,000 shares at a price of $25.00 per share, totaling $100,000, on October 27, 2023.
This investor also assumed the role of a “statutory underwriter” concerning the Seed Creation Baskets.
Additionally, BlackRock disclosed its strategy for managing sponsor’s fees, indicating that it intends to acquire Bitcoin or cash through short-term trade credit from a trade credit lender.
This approach allows BlackRock to collect its fees via loans, mitigating the need to sell BTC from the ETF assets. Consequently, this method minimizes any significant impact on the BTC price.
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Trade credit settlements are scheduled to transpire on the subsequent business day following the execution date and incur a financing fee.
This fee is calculated at 11%, plus the federal funds target rate divided by 365. For instance, if the federal funds target rate was 5.50% on November 20, 2023, the hypothetical financing fee on borrowed funds would amount to (11% + 5.5%) divided by 365.
Eric Balchunas, an ETF analyst, described these revelations as an intriguing development within the financial sector.
BlackRock emerged as an early pioneer among institutional giants by filing for a spot Bitcoin ETF back in July. Notably, their application is among the 13 awaiting a verdict from the SEC.
Although the SEC has previously rejected applications for spot BTC ETFs, market experts speculate that the agency is likely to grant approval for the first spot BTC ETF in the United States by early 2024, reflecting the growing acceptance and integration of cryptocurrencies into traditional finance.
Gold and Bitcoin have both hit remarkable milestones, making headlines in the financial world. Gold soared to an unprecedented all-time high of $2,100 during the Asian trading session on December 4th.
Simultaneously, Bitcoin experienced a remarkable surge, surpassing $41,000 for the first time in 19 months.
Bitcoin’s resurgence above the $40,000 mark, a level last seen in April 2022, was accompanied by a rapid 2% increase over a 24-hour period.
This surge marked a 19-month high for the cryptocurrency, bringing its year-to-date gains to an astonishing 140%.
Markus Thielen, the head of research at Matrixport, has provided optimistic insights into Bitcoin’s future.
Drawing on historical trends, Thielen predicts that Bitcoin could surpass $60,000 by April of the following year and potentially reach as high as $125,000 by the end of 2024.
These projections are anchored in the recurring pattern of price surges leading up to Bitcoin halving events, with an anticipated surge of over 200%.
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Adding to the excitement, there is growing anticipation surrounding the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States.
With 13 bidders vying for approval, including industry giants like BlackRock and Grayscale, all eyes are on the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a decision.
Bloomberg’s ETF analysts believe that there is a high likelihood of simultaneous approvals for all pending bids by January 10th.
Such approvals would mark a new era of institutional involvement in Bitcoin and potentially provide a significant boost to its price.
Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo expressed his optimism by comparing the situation to the launch of the first commodity ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, which led to an eight-year rally in gold prices from 2005 to 2012.
This historical precedent suggests that Bitcoin’s recent climb above $40,000 reflects a bullish sentiment driven by the imminent approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in January and the potential for broader regulatory advancements.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s upcoming halving event is expected to provide further upward momentum for its price over the next five months.
Overall, both gold and Bitcoin are riding high, with investors closely watching their upward trajectories.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is poised for a potential correction following the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), according to experts.
Bitcoin has witnessed significant gains over the past 11 months, driven by various factors such as banking uncertainty, the filing of a spot Bitcoin ETF by BlackRock, and optimism surrounding ETF approvals.
On December 3rd, Bitcoin reached a 19-month high by surpassing the $40,000 mark.
James Edwards, a cryptocurrency analyst at Finder, suggests that the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could trigger a “sell-the-news” event, which is a situation where an asset rises in anticipation of positive news but declines once the news is confirmed.
Edwards believes that widespread institutional buying may not happen immediately upon ETF approval and could take months or even years to materialize.
However, not everyone is convinced that a significant correction is imminent.
Ryan McMillin, the chief investment officer at Merkle Tree, acknowledges that Bitcoin has gone without a correction for over 100 days, indicating an increased risk of correction.
Still, he believes that the high anticipation surrounding spot Bitcoin ETFs will likely lead to a quick recovery in the event of a sell-off.
CK Zheng, co-founder of ZX Squared Capital, predicts that any price pullback in Bitcoin will be shallow due to strong fundamentals.
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Factors such as the upcoming Bitcoin halving, extensive money printing by global central banks, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty contribute to the cryptocurrency’s resilience.
Despite the logical expectations of a correction, cryptocurrency remains a “wild card” in the financial markets. It often defies conventional wisdom, and market movements may not align with logical predictions.
Looking ahead to December, analysts do not anticipate a loss of momentum for Bitcoin. Institutional investors have reportedly been speculating on ETF approval, with increased inflows into existing Bitcoin futures ETFs in recent days.
This suggests that prices may remain relatively stable as investors await confirmation, either from technical charts or an official ETF approval.
Crypto lawyer Joe Carlasare sees “little chance” of a significant Bitcoin correction before ETF approval, as the market is only weeks away from the likely approval date.
Henrik Anderrson, Chief Investment Officer at Apollo Capital, believes that the approval of multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs could redirect mainstream attention towards the cryptocurrency market.
The industry is eagerly awaiting a potential approval window between January 5th and 10th, 2024, which could have a substantial impact on Bitcoin’s future performance.
Swan Bitcoin’s CEO, Cory Klippsten, has proposed that spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could significantly alter the landscape of cryptocurrency marketing.
In a recent interview with Bloomberg on December 1, Klippsten emphasized that Bitcoin ETFs provide an alternative means of entering the crypto market, one that can bypass the noisy and often manipulative marketing tactics that have dominated the space since 2017.
Klippsten noted that over the past six years, the crypto industry has been inundated with aggressive marketing schemes fueled by substantial venture capital investments, which aimed to promote and sell various crypto tokens.
These strategies often lured newcomers into the space with flashy promises and high-risk propositions.
In contrast, Klippsten explained that Bitcoin ETFs function as a form of IOU for Bitcoin itself, differing from futures-based alternatives.
They represent a paper version of the cryptocurrency, but the issuing firm is required to secure the investments by purchasing actual Bitcoin.
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This, he believes, makes ETFs a more secure and reliable entry point for newcomers looking to invest in Bitcoin.
Furthermore, Klippsten shares the optimism of many crypto analysts who anticipate a “clear runway” for Bitcoin ETF approval in January.
He highlighted a potential approval window around January 8th, 9th, or 10th, based on signals from the SEC and industry insiders.
Interestingly, this perspective coincides with a recent announcement by Standard Chartered, a major banking institution, which predicted that Bitcoin ETFs could drive the price of Bitcoin up by a remarkable 165% by the end of 2024.
Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kenrick, Head of EM FX Research, West, and Crypto Research, pointed out that the shift in forecasts suggests the possibility of significant price increases before April 2024, primarily due to the anticipated introduction of US spot ETFs ahead of schedule.
In summary, Cory Klippsten’s insights suggest that Bitcoin ETFs may bring a more stable and transparent investment avenue for individuals seeking exposure to the crypto market while avoiding the noisy marketing tactics that have dominated the industry for years.
The convergence of such views, along with the anticipation of ETF approval and the positive price outlook, indicates an evolving and maturing cryptocurrency landscape.
On December 1st, Bitcoin surged to a remarkable milestone, reaching $39,000 for the first time since mid-2022.
This surge was triggered by the United States Federal Reserve’s signals of potential policy easing. Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed this surge, marking a new 19-month high for Bitcoin on Bitstamp.
The catalyst for this bullish movement was Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s scheduled appearance at Spelman College in Atlanta, Georgia.
Powell approached the stage with a cautious tone but made it clear that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was committed to reducing inflation to 2% over time and maintaining a restrictive policy until they were confident about achieving this objective.
Powell stated, “It would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease.”
Despite Powell’s caution, his comments on the state of the U.S. economy and efforts to curb inflation boosted risk asset sentiment.
Some analysts, like The Kobeissi Letter, remained skeptical about the Fed’s future actions, suggesting that the Fed would prefer a mild recession over the risk of inflation resurgence, implying a prolonged pause in policy adjustments.
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Bitcoin, however, seized the opportunity and reacted positively, in contrast to its relatively flat response to earlier U.S. macroeconomic data releases.
The next FOMC meeting, scheduled for mid-December, will be closely watched for any announcements regarding interest rate changes.
Market expectations, as of December 1st, heavily favored a pause in interest rate hikes according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
In the Bitcoin market, trader Daan Crypto Trades highlighted the significant sell-side liquidity that played a role in the brief ascent to $39,000.
Keith Alan of Material Indicators shared an order book snapshot, revealing substantial resistance at $39,000 and $39,200, with notable buyer support at $38,000.
Traders and analysts in the crypto community expressed optimism about Bitcoin’s prospects.
BitQuant predicted a daily close above $38,000, which would be a powerful bullish signal, while Crypto Ed anticipated further upside potential, targeting at least $39,200 in the near term.
In summary, Bitcoin’s surge to $39,000 on December 1st was driven by the Federal Reserve’s signals of potential policy easing, despite Chairman Powell’s cautious remarks.
Market sentiment leaned towards a pause in interest rate hikes, and Bitcoin traders and analysts remained bullish on its future price prospects.