On November 30th, Bitcoin (BTC) displayed resilience in the face of fresh United States macroeconomic data, largely ignoring it as traders eagerly awaited the monthly closing figures.
Despite a recent failed breakout attempt, BTC prices remained in a narrow intraday range below $38,000, showing signs of stability.
The focus of market participants was on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, the Federal Reserve’s favored gauge of inflation.
Hopes were high that the PCE Index would inject volatility into the market, but at the time of writing, it had not yet impacted the situation.
The data came in broadly in line with expectations, supporting the Fed’s monetary tightening stance and confirming a decline in inflation.
However, financial commentary from The Kobeissi Letter questioned whether this would lead to interest rate cuts, a critical consideration for risk assets.
Kobeissi Letter pointed to Bill Ackman, CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, who had earlier predicted rate cuts starting in Q1 2024.
READ MORE: Swiss Asset Manager Pando Asset Joins U.S. Bitcoin ETF Race as BlackRock Refines Model with SEC
The commentary emphasized the lag effect of monetary policy, cautioning against premature rate cuts by the Fed.
Despite the PCE data, market expectations for Fed policy remained unchanged, with data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicating near-unanimous expectations of a rate hike pause in the coming month.
For Bitcoin enthusiasts, the focus was primarily on the monthly closing figures. At the time of writing, BTC/USD had posted nearly a 10% gain for November, marking the first positive performance in the 11th month since 2020.
A close above $37,660 would represent the highest monthly closing price since May 2022, a positive signal for the cryptocurrency.
Analysts also noted the bullish potential in Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings.
Traders like Jelle pointed out the formation of a hidden bullish divergence over the past month, with Bitcoin breaking its RSI downtrend.
The key focus was on whether the price could hold in the designated range, and the monthly close was eagerly awaited as the cryptocurrency market braced for potential movements.
In summary, despite macroeconomic data and Fed considerations, Bitcoin remained steady, with traders closely monitoring the monthly closing figures as the cryptocurrency aimed for positive gains in November and potential bullish momentum in the coming days.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin futures market demonstrated a surging demand from institutional investors, surpassing Binance’s BTC futures market in terms of size.
This development underscores a growing confidence among these investors in Bitcoin’s potential to breach the $40,000 mark in the near future.
CME currently boasts a Bitcoin futures open interest of $4.35 billion, a level not seen since November 2021 when Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $69,000.
This significant uptick in interest is seen as a clear indicator of heightened enthusiasm. However, the question that looms is whether this surge is substantial enough to justify further price gains.
The remarkable 125% increase in CME’s BTC futures open interest, soaring from $1.93 billion in mid-October, is closely tied to the anticipation surrounding the approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
It’s important to note that this movement doesn’t necessarily correlate directly with market makers’ or issuers’ actions. Cryptocurrency analyst JJcycles raised this theory in a social media post on November 26.
Institutional investors have alternative options to navigate the high costs associated with futures contracts.
They can consider CME Bitcoin options, which demand less capital while offering similar leveraged long exposure.
Furthermore, regulated ETF and exchange-traded notes (ETN) trading in regions like Canada, Brazil, and Europe present viable alternatives.
It might appear naive to assume that the world’s largest asset managers would take substantial risks with derivatives contracts contingent on a decision by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, expected only in mid-January.
Nonetheless, the undeniable growth in CME Bitcoin futures open interest serves as concrete evidence of institutional investors increasingly turning their attention to the cryptocurrency market.
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CME’s Bitcoin futures activity witnessed another noteworthy development on November 28. The annualized premium for CME Bitcoin futures, typically at 5% to 10% in neutral markets, spiked from 15% to 34%, eventually stabilizing at 23% by the end of the day.
Such a basis rate exceeding 20% indicates substantial optimism, suggesting a willingness among buyers to pay a premium for leveraged long positions.
Currently, the metric stands at 14%, indicating that whatever drove this unusual movement is no longer a factor.
Notably, during that eight-hour period on November 28, Bitcoin’s price rose from $37,100 to $38,200.
However, discerning whether this surge was prompted by the spot market or futures contracts is challenging, as arbitrage between the two occurs in milliseconds.
Instead of fixating on intraday price movements, traders should refer to BTC option market data for confirmation of institutional investor interest.
The data on the 30-day BTC options 25% delta skew, consistently remaining below the -7% threshold over the past month, supports the bullish sentiment among institutional investors using CME Bitcoin futures.
This casts doubts on the theory of whales accumulating assets ahead of a potential spot ETF approval. In essence, derivatives metrics do not indicate excessive short-term optimism.
While a spot ETF approval remains a driving force, with Bitcoin’s price hovering near $38,000, it seems that bulls will continue to challenge resistance levels.
However, if market makers were overwhelmingly confident in an SEC approval, the BTC options delta skew would likely be much lower.
Swiss asset manager Pando Asset has thrown its hat into the competitive ring of the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) race in the United States, surprising many with its unexpected entry.
On the same day, investment giant BlackRock engaged in discussions with the country’s securities regulator, presenting an updated ETF model based on the regulator’s feedback.
On November 29, Pando Asset submitted a Form S-1 to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the document used to register securities with the agency, outlining its Pando Asset Spot Bitcoin Trust.
Similar to other ETF proposals, this trust intends to mirror Bitcoin’s price movements, with Coinbase’s custody arm responsible for safeguarding Bitcoin holdings on behalf of the trust.
Pando Asset joins a crowded field, becoming the 13th applicant seeking approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S., competing with heavyweights like BlackRock, ARK Invest, and Grayscale.
READ MORE: Bitcoin Holds Strong at $38,000 Amid Speculation of Price Surges and Fed’s Powell Speech
In a November 29 post on X (formerly Twitter), Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas expressed curiosity about Pando’s late filing, wondering why it emerged at this stage.
He also raised concerns about the potential implications if Pando’s ETF were to be approved alongside others on January 10, a date he and fellow Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart have earmarked as a possible approval date.
This date coincides with the SEC’s deadline to either approve or deny ARK Invest’s application.
Seyffart, however, expressed doubts about Pando’s readiness to launch its ETF on the same day as others, acknowledging that unforeseen developments can occur in this space.
Meanwhile, the SEC held meetings with executives from BlackRock and Invesco on November 28 to discuss their respective ETF proposals, as revealed in agency documents.
BlackRock presented revisions to its redemption model, addressing concerns raised during a prior meeting regarding the impact on balance sheets and the risks faced by U.S. broker-dealers dealing with offshore crypto entities.
Balchunas clarified that BlackRock’s revised approach involves offshore entities acquiring Bitcoin from Coinbase and pre-paying U.S. registered broker-dealers in cash, as these broker-dealers cannot directly handle Bitcoin.
This strategy aligns with the SEC’s requirement for ETFs to have redemption models that place the responsibility on issuers to transact in Bitcoin, avoiding the need for broker-dealers to engage with unregistered subsidiaries or third-party firms for Bitcoin transactions.
Standard Chartered has made a bold prediction that Bitcoin could surge to $100,000 within the next year, driven by the potential launch of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) sooner than expected.
In a research note released on November 28, the banking giant reaffirmed its optimistic price targets for Bitcoin.
The report suggests that Bitcoin may reach a six-figure price tag by the end of 2024, a significant jump from its current trading value of $37,700.
This bullish outlook is primarily based on the possible approval of Bitcoin spot price ETFs in the United States.
Geoff Kenrick, Head of EM FX Research, West, and Crypto Research at Standard Chartered, stated, “We now expect more price upside to materialize before the halving than we previously did, specifically via the earlier-than-expected introduction of US spot ETFs.”
This development raises the prospect of Bitcoin reaching the $100,000 mark before the end of 2024.
Standard Chartered’s positive stance on Bitcoin’s future performance builds upon its earlier optimistic outlook.
READ MORE: Bitcoin Holds Strong at $38,000 Amid Speculation of Price Surges and Fed’s Powell Speech
In July, the bank pointed to the decreasing availability of Bitcoin supply as a factor that could drive prices significantly higher. At that time, Kenrick predicted that Bitcoin could hit $50,000 by the end of 2023.
Additionally, he noted that miners might start hoarding more of their Bitcoin stocks due to an increasing hash rate and the upcoming block subsidy halving, which will reduce the amount of Bitcoin earned per block by 50%.
This increased profitability for miners would lead to reduced net Bitcoin supply, pushing prices even higher.
The spotlight is currently on the ETF narrative, with derivatives premiums rising and growing anticipation of a potential ETF approval in January.
Bitcoin’s price trajectory has been highly responsive to news related to ETFs, with rapid gains in November as investors anticipated regulatory approval before the January window.
However, there are concerns about large-volume investors selling off their holdings once the green light is given, potentially leading to a “buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario.
This situation could result in losses for latecomers to the market. Nonetheless, Standard Chartered remains confident in Bitcoin’s ability to reach new price milestones, especially if ETFs become a reality sooner than expected.
On November 29, Bitcoin (BTC) demonstrated resilience by maintaining its momentum at the $38,000 level, despite warnings of potential market corrections.
Bitcoin’s price trajectory continued to target new 18-month highs, as reported by data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
It had previously reached highs matching those of the previous day, even surpassing $39,000 in futures markets.
The enthusiasm surrounding Bitcoin derivatives had led to debates about the possibility of large-volume traders leaving late long positions vulnerable at these elevated levels. Keith Alan, co-founder of monitoring resource Material Indicators, issued a word of caution to traders regarding what he referred to as “whale games.”
He highlighted an instance where liquidity at $38,000 was pulled to trigger a move to $38,500, emphasizing that it wasn’t necessarily a friendly gesture but rather a strategic move by large players.
Looking ahead, attention was focused on the words expected from Jerome Powell, the chair of the United States Federal Reserve, scheduled for December 1.
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Powell’s statements could potentially serve as an external catalyst for Bitcoin’s price, with the possibility of it surpassing the $40,000 mark.
However, it was noted that whales (large cryptocurrency holders) would likely be closely monitoring a key level at which to sell off their holdings.
A chart accompanying the article revealed that the sell-side liquidity in the order book was concentrated at $38,500, a level that had not been challenged at the time of writing.
Despite these considerations, some remained optimistic about the possibility of further short-term upside, suggesting that increased trading volume was all that was needed for a breakout toward the $40,000 threshold.
In the broader financial context, Bill Ackman, CEO and founder of hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management, expressed his belief that the Federal Reserve might have to make a pivot on interest rates as early as the first quarter of 2024.
Ackman argued that failing to cut rates soon would increase the risk of a “hard landing” for the U.S. economy as inflation subsided.
Key U.S. macroeconomic data, including the Q3 GDP and the October print of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, were expected to play a role in shaping Fed policy decisions.
It’s important to note that the article does not provide investment advice and emphasizes the need for individuals to conduct their own research when making investment decisions.
Bitcoin deposits and withdrawals have been reinstated on HTX, the cryptocurrency exchange previously known as Huobi, following a devastating $30 million security breach that occurred on November 22.
In an official blog post dated November 26, HTX announced the resumption of deposit and withdrawal services for several cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (Ether), Tron, and Tether (USDT).
Justin Sun, the prominent figure associated with HTX, shared a subsequent update on X (formerly Twitter), revealing HTX’s intention to progressively restore functionality for the remaining cryptocurrencies. Sun expressed optimism that this process would be completed “by next week.”
The recent security incident marked the fourth hack in just two months to afflict crypto platforms linked to or controlled by Justin Sun.
HTX’s exchange hot wallets suffered a massive $30 million loss during this latest breach.
Additionally, on the same fateful day, the HTX Eco Chain bridge, involving HTX, Tron, and BitTorrent, all entities associated with Sun, fell victim to an $86.6 million cyberattack.
Another Sun-owned cryptocurrency exchange, Poloniex, faced its own ordeal when it experienced a $100 million attack on November 10.
Blockchain security firm CertiK indicated that this incident likely resulted from a compromise of private keys.
The series of security breaches dates back to September 24, shortly after the rebranding of Huobi to HTX.
During this earlier attack, an assailant made off with nearly $8 million worth of cryptocurrencies from the exchange’s hot wallet.
These security breaches have raised significant concerns within the cryptocurrency community, highlighting the vulnerability of platforms and the pressing need for robust security measures in the ever-evolving landscape of digital assets.
HTX’s efforts to restore services and enhance security are a crucial step in regaining trust and stability for its users and the broader cryptocurrency market.
With the approval of the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States, Bitcoin may be on a path towards reaching nearly $50,000, according to insights from CryptoCon, a prominent analyst.
The Ichimoku Cloud indicator, a tool that combines historical, current, and future trading signals, is signaling an upward trajectory for Bitcoin’s price.
Analyzing Bitcoin’s weekly timeframe, the Ichimoku Cloud indicator suggests that the recent gains in BTC price are just the beginning of a potential bullish trend.
CryptoCon shared his insights on November 27, predicting a specific target for Bitcoin’s price.
The Ichimoku indicator’s leading spans have recently intersected, forming a new upward cloud.
Furthermore, the lagging span, known as Chikou, has broken through resistance levels, indicating that the price is poised to move higher.
CryptoCon noted that the previous prediction made by the Weekly Ichimoku cloud accurately anticipated Bitcoin’s rise to $38,000 two months in advance, and now it points towards a new target of $43,000.
This projection typically takes around 7 to 11 weeks from the cross, with an average of 10 weeks, implying that the price could reach this level in early January.
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CryptoCon also suggested that $43,200 is a conservative estimate, and Bitcoin could potentially reach as high as $48,000.
He emphasized that the Ichimoku indicator, which looks into the future, indicates that there is more room for growth.
As of November 28, Bitcoin was trading at $37,000. The timing of the potential $48,000 target aligns with the expected approval date of the Bitcoin ETF in early January, assuming historical market patterns continue to hold.
However, the specifics of the ETF approval and which products will receive the green light remain uncertain.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) continues to exert influence on the cryptocurrency market by taking enforcement actions against Binance, the world’s largest exchange.
Binance faced a significant $4.3 billion fine, and its CEO, Changpeng Zhao, was removed from his position. Interestingly, these developments have benefited Coinbase, a rival exchange, with its shares surging over 250% year-to-date.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s potential ascent to nearly $50,000 is supported by the Ichimoku Cloud indicator’s signals, and its timing coincides with the anticipated approval of the first U.S.
Bitcoin ETF in early January, although regulatory uncertainties persist in the crypto space.
Robert Kiyosaki, renowned author of the influential personal finance book “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” has reaffirmed his belief in the importance of assets like Bitcoin, gold, and silver as the specter of inflation looms large, endangering global living standards.
In recent times, the price of gold has surged past the $2,000 per ounce mark, demonstrating a consistent rebound in the face of diminishing fiat currency values.
As a staunch advocate for the Bitcoin ecosystem, Kiyosaki used his platform, with over 2.4 million followers on X (formerly Twitter), to encourage people to reduce their exposure to fiat currencies, which he dismissively referred to as the “fake money system.”
Kiyosaki, known for his candid and often unconventional financial advice, declared that individuals attempting to save money through traditional means are destined to fall short.
Instead, he recommended alternative forms of investment, including gold, silver, and Bitcoin, asserting, “Don’t be a loser. Get out of the FAKE money system.
Get into gold, silver, Bitcoin now… Before it’s too late.”
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On November 23rd, Kiyosaki pointed the finger at what he termed the “woke government” for the mounting inflation and the ensuing daily struggles faced by ordinary citizens.
He remains resolute in his choice to convert his fiat assets into Bitcoin and precious metals, underscoring his belief that political leaders are indifferent to the well-being of the populace, ultimately leading to conditions of strife and impoverishment.
As early as October 20th, Kiyosaki had forecasted that the price of gold would soon surpass $2,100, and he anticipates a further rally to $3,700 in the not-so-distant future.
In a bold prediction made in August 2023, Kiyosaki foresaw Bitcoin’s value reaching $100,000, taking into account the geopolitical tensions that posed a threat to global prosperity.
However, he also painted a vivid picture of what might transpire should the stocks and bonds market plummet.
In such a scenario, Kiyosaki envisions Bitcoin’s price skyrocketing to an astonishing $1 million, while the value of gold and silver would surge to $75,000 and $65,000, respectively.
In a world grappling with economic uncertainties and growing inflationary pressures, Kiyosaki’s unorthodox investment advice continues to capture the attention of individuals seeking to safeguard their financial futures.
Bitcoin is embarking on a new week, maintaining its position near its highest levels in the past 18 months.
The cryptocurrency’s price action surged above $38,000 last week, but it has since been trapped within a “micro-range,” leaving traders uncertain about the next move.
The pressing question on everyone’s mind is whether a deeper retracement is in store or if Bitcoin will continue its ascent to reach $40,000, potentially leaving doubters behind.
In the coming days, several potential catalysts could determine the direction of Bitcoin’s trend, and there are indications that the market is primed for a boost.
Volatility is expected to increase with the monthly close on the horizon, but before that, a series of macroeconomic events could bring unexpected price action.
The monthly close holds significant importance for day traders, with Bitcoin currently at a critical juncture.
Untested liquidity levels on the downside and resistance around the $40,000 mark have created a stubborn daily trading range.
Bulls and bears have struggled to break free from this narrow corridor, with even new higher highs being short-lived.
As of the latest weekly close, Bitcoin experienced a brief drop to $37,100 before recovering.
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Traders are now eagerly awaiting bid momentum to return, with key levels at $37,000 and $38,000 to watch closely.
The monthly close approaches, and Bitcoin has seen a 7.8% increase month-to-date in November 2023, which is considered average compared to previous years.
In addition to the monthly close, Bitcoin traders are also anticipating a week filled with macroeconomic events.
The United States Federal Reserve will receive crucial inflation data that will influence its interest rate policy decisions in the coming month.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak on December 1, following comments from other senior Fed officials.
The GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust) is nearing parity with its underlying asset pair, BTC/USD, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment.
The fund’s resurgence is seen as a sign of growing institutional interest in Bitcoin, particularly if the U.S. approves its first spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Bitcoin miners are deploying record processing power to the network in anticipation of the upcoming block subsidy halving in April 2024.
The hash rate, a measure of this deployment, recently surpassed 500 exahashes per second, a significant milestone.
Meanwhile, BTC exchange balances are declining once again, with major exchanges holding the lowest amount of BTC since April 2018, driven in part by recent regulatory actions and hacks affecting some exchanges.
Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB) and a well-known critic of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, recently revealed a personal anecdote about her son’s unsuccessful foray into the world of digital assets.
During a town hall meeting in Frankfurt on November 24, Lagarde disclosed that her son had suffered substantial losses from his cryptocurrency investments, despite her repeated warnings.
Lagarde recounted, with a touch of wry humor, that her son had “ignored me royally, which is his privilege,” and as a result, he ended up losing “almost all the money he had invested” in cryptocurrencies.
Although Lagarde did not specify the exact amount her son lost, she noted that he regarded it as “not a lot,” estimating that he had lost approximately 60% of his crypto investments.
Lagarde later revealed that her son reluctantly acknowledged her cautionary advice after this substantial loss.
The ECB president’s sentiments toward cryptocurrencies have been quite clear.
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She expressed her skepticism about the value of cryptocurrencies in 2022, stating that they are essentially “worth nothing” as they lack tangible backing.
In 2021, Lagarde also predicted that central banks worldwide would not be adding Bitcoin to their reserves anytime soon, reflecting her cautious stance toward digital assets.
In contrast to her criticism of cryptocurrencies, Lagarde has shown strong support for the concept of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).
In April 2023, she admitted that a potential digital euro would have a “limited” scope, primarily intended for facilitating day-to-day payments.
This stance aligns with the ECB’s ongoing exploration of the feasibility and implications of launching a digital euro.
Overall, Lagarde’s personal account of her son’s crypto investment misadventures provides a glimpse into her deep-seated skepticism toward cryptocurrencies.
She firmly believes that while individuals have the freedom to invest and speculate as they choose, there should be stringent measures to prevent participation in illicit or criminal activities within the crypto space, reflecting her ongoing commitment to financial stability and regulation.