Bitcoin has traded firmly above its opening price for the year, gaining roughly 9.5% and consolidating near the $95,000 level as traders assess its next directional move.
Market participants increasingly view the short-term trend as positive, with price action approaching a key technical barrier closely watched by analysts.
Focus Turns To Short-Term Holder Cost Basis
Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim six-figure territory depends on overcoming resistance near $98,000, which aligns with the short-term holder cost basis.
This level represents the average acquisition price of recent buyers and is often viewed as a threshold for renewed upside momentum.
“$BTC is approaching a key inflexion point,” said Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish in a Friday post on X.
“Reclaiming the STH cost basis would signal that recent buyers are back in profit, typically a prerequisite for momentum to re-accelerate,” he added.
Analysts See Broader Trend Support
MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said the broader trend remains constructive as long as Bitcoin holds above its 21-day moving average near $91,200.
He said maintaining that level would likely set the stage for an eventual move beyond $100,000.
Another analyst known as Mags highlighted Bitcoin’s bounce from a long-term trendline that has held since March 2023.
“Bitcoin is bouncing from the long-term trendline support it has been holding since March 2023,” Mags said.
“Each time the price has bounced from this support, we have witnessed a strong run-up,” the analyst added.
Historical Context Strengthens Bullish Case
The last significant bounce from this trendline occurred in October 2023, preceding a 172% rally that carried Bitcoin to a previous record high in March 2024.
That historical performance has strengthened expectations that the current consolidation phase could resolve to the upside.
Analysts also point to whale accumulation, steady institutional demand, and improving onchain metrics as supportive factors.
Ascending Triangle Points Higher
From a chart perspective, Bitcoin is retesting the upper boundary of an ascending triangle formation on the daily timeframe.
Resistance remains concentrated between $96,000 and $99,500, corresponding to the 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages.
A confirmed breakout would imply a measured move toward roughly $113,200, based on the height of the pattern.
“Bitcoin is consolidating in an ascending triangle along with confirmed weekly hidden bullish divergence,” said analyst Matthew Hyland.
“Price goes up,” he added.
Momentum Indicators Remain Constructive
The relative strength index has climbed to 64 after emerging from oversold conditions late last year, suggesting strengthening momentum without immediate overheating risks.
“There’s definitely a good amount of room to move higher for now,” said analyst Daan crypto Trades.
“Just need the bulls to hold the lower timeframe bullish market structures,” he added.
