Bitcoin (BTC) is entering May 2026 having delivered one of its strongest monthly performances of the current cycle, gaining approximately 13 percent across April from lows near $68,000 in early February to the current trading range of $76,000 to $77,500, while simultaneously struggling to break above the $80,000 resistance level that has now rejected the cryptocurrency on multiple attempts and become the most watched technical threshold in the digital asset market.
The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady at the April 29 meeting while signalling a “higher-for-longer” trajectory was the most significant domestic macro event of the week for Bitcoin, removing what would have been a near-term positive catalyst in a rate cut while also limiting the downside risk of a hawkish surprise, leaving the cryptocurrency in the same range-trading environment that has characterised the past two weeks.
Prediction markets on Kalshi are pricing a 64 percent probability that Bitcoin will hold above $76,000 entering May 1, with contracts tied to a recovery above $77,000 showing only a 37 percent implied probability, suggesting the market-implied view among active traders is one of stable consolidation at current levels rather than either a decisive break higher or a meaningful pullback in the immediate term.
The liquidation data adds texture to that cautious consensus, with more than $110 million in Bitcoin leveraged positions being wiped out across the most recent reporting period as the market cleared out the most aggressive bullish positioning that had built up during April’s recovery, a deleveraging episode that has historically served to create a cleaner base from which more sustainable upside moves develop once the overleveraged speculative positions are removed.
The $76,200 level, aligned with the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement of the move from the February lows to the April high of approximately $79,500, has emerged as the key near-term support that technical analysts are watching, with a sustained hold above that level expected to produce continued consolidation in the $76,200 to $79,000 range while a break below it risks a sharper move toward $73,500 if elevated oil prices from the Iran conflict continue to weigh on risk appetite broadly.
The Iran conflict remains the most persistent macro headwind for Bitcoin’s recovery, with oil prices holding above $100 per barrel following Trump’s rejection of Iran’s offer to end the US naval blockade and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the associated risk aversion flowing into crypto markets through the modest 18 percent correlation with the S&P 500 that characterises Bitcoin’s current positioning.
Strategy’s 815,061 BTC holding, accumulated at an average cost of $75,528 per coin, sits in positive territory at current prices and represents a commercial vindication for Michael Saylor’s accumulation model that is not lost on the institutional community watching how the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder has navigated one of the more volatile quarters in recent digital asset market history.
Bitcoin ETF inflows have remained constructive through the consolidation period, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs extending their pattern of sustained net positive flows that has been one of the defining structural features of the 2025 to 2026 market cycle and that provides a more reliable floor beneath prices than the purely speculative capital that drove previous cycle highs.
The broader crypto market is showing the classic consolidation pattern that follows a significant recovery rally, with the CoinMarketCap altcoin season indicator sitting in neutral territory and capital concentration in Bitcoin and Ethereum rather than the broader altcoin space suggesting that the most sophisticated money is not yet confident enough in the macro environment to extend into higher-beta positions.
Looking forward into May, the catalysts that could break the current range in either direction include any meaningful development in the Iran ceasefire negotiations, any shift in the Federal Reserve’s communication about the rate path, further Strategy Bitcoin purchases that Saylor has pre-announced through his characteristic social media tracker posts, and the continued conversion of the White House’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve framework from conceptual to operational.
Bitcoin is trading in the $77,000 to $78,000 range on Saturday April 18, posting a gain of approximately 2.8 to 3% over the previous 24 hours as the Strait of Hormuz reopening sparked a broad shift in market sentiment that carried risk assets higher across equities, commodities and crypto simultaneously.
The move builds on a week of gradual recovery from lows near $70,000 in early April, when Trump’s blockade order sent investors into defensive positions across all major asset classes. The total crypto market capitalisation has reached $2.70 trillion, up from $2.63 trillion the previous day, with Bitcoin’s dominance holding at 57.3% as the largest digital asset continues to attract the most institutional interest in a period of elevated uncertainty.
US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have been one of the more remarkable data points of the current cycle. A single-day inflow figure of $663.9 million was recorded in the days prior to Friday’s session, driven primarily by BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. That figure represents the kind of institutional commitment that structurally changes Bitcoin’s demand profile compared with earlier market cycles, where retail momentum was the primary driver of price swings.
The liquidation dynamic has added further fuel to the move. Approximately $820 to $826 million in total crypto liquidations were recorded in recent sessions, with Bitcoin short positions accounting for more than $350 million of that total. When extended bearish positioning meets a macro catalyst that forces rapid position unwinding, the resulting short squeeze amplifies the directional move well beyond what fundamentals alone would produce.
Bitcoin is now testing a key resistance band in the $77,000 to $79,000 area that aligns with a Fibonacci extension zone and has acted as a ceiling multiple times over the past two months. A clean break above $79,000 on sustained volume would shift the technical picture materially and open conversation about a return to the $80,000 to $85,000 range. The Fear and Greed Index sits at 26, still firmly in the Fear category, which means the sentiment backdrop has not yet shifted to the kind of euphoric positioning that typically precedes meaningful corrections.
Several analysts have noted that the 46-day stretch of negative funding rates on Bitcoin perpetual futures, even as prices moved higher, is a historically unusual configuration that typically precedes sharp upside moves as short sellers are eventually forced to cover. Whether the Hormuz reopening and ETF inflows are sufficient catalysts to force that squeeze is the question the market is working through this weekend.
There are bad days to be sitting on a leveraged crypto position, and then there is quadruple witching Friday, and then there is quadruple witching Friday during a Middle East war, a hawkish Fed and a four-week equity selloff.
According to Goldman Sachs, more than $7.1 trillion in notional options exposure expires simultaneously, the largest quarterly derivatives expiry ever recorded, with roughly $5 trillion tied to the S&P 500 index alone and a further $880 billion linked to individual stocks.
Bitcoin was holding around $69,800 as those contracts began expiring, with Ethereum at $2,134, XRP at $1.43 and Solana at $88.93, each of those figures sitting well below where they were when the year began and well below where most investors had positioned for them to be by now.
The Fear and Greed Index for crypto markets registered 30 going into Friday’s session, firmly in fear territory and barely recovered from the reading of 23 recorded earlier this week following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish rate hold.
Quadruple witching matters to crypto investors because Bitcoin no longer operates in a silo separate from traditional finance.
The asset increasingly trades alongside equities and other risk assets, meaning institutional liquidations, portfolio rebalancing and derivatives settlement in the stock market create direct ripple effects in digital asset prices, often within the same trading session rather than with any meaningful lag.
Cole Kennelly, CEO of Volmex Finance, said the event is already showing up in digital asset volatility metrics: “Quadruple witching could trigger a spike in cross-asset volatility as large derivatives positions expire. This may already be showing up in crypto, with the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility (BVIV) Index trending higher into the event.”
The historical pattern from 2025 provides limited comfort for anyone hoping Friday itself will pass quietly.
Bitcoin tended to show muted or flat performance on the day of quadruple witching events themselves, but consistently followed with weakness in the days and weeks after, sometimes sharply so.
In September 2025, a post-witching decline took Bitcoin from $177,000 all the way to $108,000, while the June event was followed by a local bottom just two days later.
Analyst Max Crypto noted on social media that BTC has dropped between seven and eight percent before bouncing during three of the last four quadruple witching events, a pattern that, combined with the current macro backdrop, suggests the path of least resistance remains downward rather than upward in the near term.
Today’s derivatives expiry does not even represent the end of the week’s event risk for crypto specifically.
A separate $13.5 billion in digital asset derivatives are set to expire on Deribit on March 27, just six days away, and positioning data from that exchange shows traders leaning into volatility strategies rather than building directional bets, which signals a market bracing for continued turbulence rather than any clean directional resolution.
Bitcoin ETF outflows over the past two days have compounded the selling pressure, with BlackRock’s IBIT posting $38.25 million in outflows on Thursday, Fidelity’s FBTC shedding $26.02 million and Bitwise contributing $17.18 million to net outflows of $90 million across the day, a continuation of the $163.52 million in net outflows recorded on Wednesday.
The combined weight of geopolitical uncertainty, a Fed that has signalled one rate cut for the entirety of 2026, oil above $100 and now the mechanical pressure of the largest derivatives expiry in financial history arriving in the same week is as challenging a set of conditions as the crypto market has navigated since the October 2025 peak.
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have recorded a second consecutive week of net inflows, signaling a renewed wave of investor demand after a prolonged stretch dominated by withdrawals and cautious sentiment.
Data compiled by SoSoValue indicates that spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $568.45 million in fresh capital during the latest week, continuing the recovery that began with $787.31 million in inflows the week before.
The back-to-back positive weeks mark the first time the funds have achieved consecutive gains in roughly five months, suggesting investor appetite is returning after a difficult period for digital asset investment vehicles.
Prior to the recent turnaround, the funds had endured a five-week streak of consistent redemptions that resulted in cumulative outflows totaling around $3.8 billion across the sector.
The heaviest weekly withdrawals occurred during the period ending January 30, when investors collectively removed about $1.49 billion from spot Bitcoin ETFs as market uncertainty intensified.
Volatile Daily Flows During The Week
Although the weekly totals ultimately showed strong inflows, the daily performance across the week revealed fluctuating investor sentiment and intermittent profit-taking as markets reacted to shifting price dynamics.
Monday began with strong demand as the funds collectively attracted $458.19 million in inflows, reflecting renewed institutional interest and optimism surrounding the broader cryptocurrency market outlook.
The positive momentum continued into Tuesday, when spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded an additional $225.15 million in inflows as investors maintained confidence following the previous week’s encouraging performance.
Midweek trading delivered the largest inflow of the period, with $461.77 million entering the funds on Wednesday as market participants increased exposure to Bitcoin through regulated investment vehicles.
However, sentiment shifted toward the end of the week, with Thursday seeing net outflows of $227.83 million before withdrawals accelerated further on Friday with $348.83 million exiting the products.
Ether ETFs Also Register Consecutive Weekly Gains
Spot Ether exchange-traded funds in the United States mirrored the broader recovery trend, recording their second straight week of net inflows after several weeks of persistent investor withdrawals earlier this year.
The funds attracted approximately $23.56 million in new capital during the latest reporting week, following an earlier inflow of about $80.46 million during the preceding week.
These gains represent the first instance of consecutive positive weeks for US spot Ether ETFs since early October of last year, highlighting improving sentiment toward Ethereum-related investment products.
Before this recovery period began, Ether ETFs had experienced a five-week stretch of withdrawals that collectively removed more than $1.38 billion from the funds.
The most severe week during that downturn occurred in late January, when investors withdrew roughly $611 million as cryptocurrency markets faced heightened volatility and declining prices.
Bitcoin ETFs Rapidly Closing Gap With Gold Funds
The broader trajectory of Bitcoin ETF adoption has also attracted attention among industry observers who are comparing the pace of inflows with those seen historically in traditional commodity investment vehicles.
Fernando Nikolić, Blockstream’s director of marketing, highlighted in a post on X that spot Bitcoin ETFs have already matched approximately fifteen years of cumulative inflows recorded by gold ETFs.
Remarkably, that milestone has been reached in less than two years despite gold funds having a significant advantage in terms of time and maturity within the exchange-traded fund market.
Nikolić also noted that the achievement occurred during a period when Bitcoin experienced a drawdown of roughly forty-six percent and endured several months of negative price performance.
“Anyone still arguing about whether bitcoin is ‘digital gold’ is wasting their breath,” he wrote. “Bitcoin isn’t trying to be gold. Bitcoin is making gold look slow,” he added.
U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $104.9 million in net outflows during Tuesday’s trading session, marking a weak start to the week for the sector.
Total trading volume dropped to just above $3 billion, representing a dramatic fall from the February 5 record of $14.7 billion and indicating cooling market participation.
The decline coincided with institutional disclosures of fourth-quarter holdings, revealing significant reallocations among major investment firms and hedge funds.
Market observers say the data suggests consolidation rather than panic selling, with investors adjusting positions following earlier strong inflows into crypto-linked products.
New Institutional Buyers Emerge
Jane Street ranked as the second-largest purchaser of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF in the fourth quarter, adding approximately $276 million worth of shares.
A previously unknown Hong Kong-based firm called Laurore also appeared in filings, acquiring $436.2 million of the ETF in a single reported purchase.
According to Bitwise adviser Jeff Park, the mysterious entity could represent early signs of Chinese institutional capital entering regulated Bitcoin markets.
Park noted the company lacks a public presence and identified the filer name Zhang Hui as extremely common, increasing speculation surrounding the investment’s origin.
Major Investors Adjust Exposure
Several funds increased allocations, including Weiss Asset Management and 59 North Capital, while Abu Dhabi sovereign investor Mubadala raised holdings by forty-five percent to roughly $630.7 million.
Conversely, Brevan Howard cut its exposure dramatically, reducing its position from about $2.4 billion to roughly $273.5 million during the same reporting period.
Goldman Sachs also trimmed its holdings by approximately forty percent, leaving close to $1 billion invested in the product after the adjustment.
Analysts interpret the mixed activity as portfolio rebalancing rather than loss of confidence, reflecting maturing institutional strategies around Bitcoin allocation.
Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the largest public Bitcoin holder globally, has increased its holdings past 700,000 BTC following a major purchase.
The company acquired 22,305 Bitcoin for $2.13 billion last week, according to filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
The purchase price averaged $95,284 per BTC, with Bitcoin briefly climbing above $97,000 midweek.
This acquisition pushed Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings to 709,715 BTC, purchased at a total of around $53.92 billion with an average cost of $75,979 per coin.
Largest Purchase Since February 2025
The latest purchase marks the company’s largest single acquisition since February 2025, when it bought 20,356 BTC for approximately $2 billion.
Earlier this month, on January 12, Strategy announced a smaller purchase of 13,627 BTC worth $1.3 billion, which had been its biggest acquisition since July of the previous year.
The acceleration in Bitcoin buying highlights Strategy’s ongoing commitment to expanding its digital treasury holdings.
Market Impact
Strategy’s stock (MSTR) experienced gains alongside Bitcoin’s recent price movement, rising past $185 amid a multi-month high for the cryptocurrency.
The momentum followed a decision by Morgan Stanley Capital International not to exclude digital treasury companies from its market index in early January, adding further investor confidence.
With Strategy continuing its accumulation strategy, market observers are watching closely for potential ripple effects on Bitcoin’s broader market sentiment.
This latest acquisition reinforces the company’s status as the world’s largest institutional Bitcoin holder and signals its long-term conviction in the asset class.
Bitcoin has traded firmly above its opening price for the year, gaining roughly 9.5% and consolidating near the $95,000 level as traders assess its next directional move.
Market participants increasingly view the short-term trend as positive, with price action approaching a key technical barrier closely watched by analysts.
Focus Turns To Short-Term Holder Cost Basis
Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim six-figure territory depends on overcoming resistance near $98,000, which aligns with the short-term holder cost basis.
This level represents the average acquisition price of recent buyers and is often viewed as a threshold for renewed upside momentum.
“$BTC is approaching a key inflexion point,” said Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish in a Friday post on X.
“Reclaiming the STH cost basis would signal that recent buyers are back in profit, typically a prerequisite for momentum to re-accelerate,” he added.
Analysts See Broader Trend Support
MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said the broader trend remains constructive as long as Bitcoin holds above its 21-day moving average near $91,200.
He said maintaining that level would likely set the stage for an eventual move beyond $100,000.
Another analyst known as Mags highlighted Bitcoin’s bounce from a long-term trendline that has held since March 2023.
“Bitcoin is bouncing from the long-term trendline support it has been holding since March 2023,” Mags said.
“Each time the price has bounced from this support, we have witnessed a strong run-up,” the analyst added.
Historical Context Strengthens Bullish Case
The last significant bounce from this trendline occurred in October 2023, preceding a 172% rally that carried Bitcoin to a previous record high in March 2024.
That historical performance has strengthened expectations that the current consolidation phase could resolve to the upside.
Analysts also point to whale accumulation, steady institutional demand, and improving onchain metrics as supportive factors.
Ascending Triangle Points Higher
From a chart perspective, Bitcoin is retesting the upper boundary of an ascending triangle formation on the daily timeframe.
Resistance remains concentrated between $96,000 and $99,500, corresponding to the 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages.
A confirmed breakout would imply a measured move toward roughly $113,200, based on the height of the pattern.
“Bitcoin is consolidating in an ascending triangle along with confirmed weekly hidden bullish divergence,” said analyst Matthew Hyland.
“Price goes up,” he added.
Momentum Indicators Remain Constructive
The relative strength index has climbed to 64 after emerging from oversold conditions late last year, suggesting strengthening momentum without immediate overheating risks.
“There’s definitely a good amount of room to move higher for now,” said analyst Daan Crypto Trades.
“Just need the bulls to hold the lower timeframe bullish market structures,” he added.
Blockchain technology in 2026 is entering a phase of maturity that goes far beyond speculation and hype. After years of regulatory uncertainty in the United States, lawmakers and federal agencies have moved decisively to clarify rules, creating a framework that allows blockchain innovation to coexist with investor protections and financial oversight.
This regulatory clarity is reshaping the way developers, investors, and institutions approach blockchain, shifting the focus from short-term gains to sustainable growth and compliance-driven adoption.
One of the most significant developments this year has been the full implementation of federal rules governing stablecoins. Dollar-backed digital tokens are now subject to rigorous reserve requirements, disclosure obligations, and regular audits. This has elevated stablecoins from niche digital assets into trusted instruments for payments, cross-border transactions, and corporate treasury management. Banks, fintech companies, and licensed issuers are increasingly entering this space, viewing regulated stablecoins as tools for faster settlement, programmable money, and more transparent financial operations. The emphasis is now on reliability, transparency, and accountability rather than pure innovation at any cost.
Alongside stablecoin oversight, U.S. regulators have clarified how different agencies oversee digital assets. Tokens are classified based on economic function rather than purely technological characteristics, reducing years of confusion over which assets fall under the jurisdiction of the Securities and Exchange Commission or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
This has encouraged institutional participation, with asset managers, insurers, and pension funds exploring tokenized securities, digital derivatives, and other blockchain-based financial products. The clearer legal framework has increased confidence among investors, supporting long-term projects and infrastructure development rather than speculative activity.
Enterprise blockchain adoption is also accelerating. Corporations are implementing distributed ledger systems to enhance supply chain transparency, improve trade finance operations, verify identities, and reconcile complex data streams.
Permissioned blockchains that interoperate with public networks are becoming standard in sectors where operational efficiency and security are paramount. The focus has shifted from decentralization ideology to tangible business benefits, demonstrating that blockchain can serve as practical infrastructure rather than a purely experimental technology.
Decentralized finance is adapting as well. DeFi platforms now integrate compliance layers, identity verification, and jurisdictional controls to remain accessible to U.S. users and institutional participants. These adjustments have enabled regulated entities to engage with on-chain lending, liquidity provision, and derivatives trading. DeFi in 2026 increasingly resembles a hybrid financial system, bridging traditional finance and blockchain innovations while remaining within regulatory boundaries. The industry is moving toward measured, long-term integration rather than unrestrained experimentation.
Technical advancements continue alongside regulatory progress. Layer-two networks, improved smart contract security, and user-friendly wallet designs have reduced transaction costs and complexity. Features like account abstraction and enhanced recovery mechanisms have made blockchain applications more accessible to non-technical users. Interoperability between networks has improved, allowing assets and data to move seamlessly across chains without sacrificing security. These developments are crucial to supporting real-world use cases, from payments to asset tokenization, beyond purely speculative markets.
Blockchain’s influence is also expanding into gaming and entertainment, although this remains a smaller segment. Some regulated casinos and gaming platforms are experimenting with blockchain for transparency and provably fair operations.
Limited blockchain-powered slot games, as noted by Kiwislots, illustrate how on-chain mechanics can verify outcomes and enhance trust without fundamentally changing the traditional player experience. While these applications are niche, they highlight the versatility of blockchain beyond finance.
The defining theme for blockchain in 2026 is maturity. Regulation has not stifled innovation; rather, it has redirected it toward projects that prioritize compliance, transparency, and utility. Speculation remains, but it no longer dominates the narrative. Blockchain is increasingly regarded as infrastructure capable of supporting payments, markets, and data systems with efficiency and reliability. With U.S. regulation providing a clearer path, the industry is poised for sustainable growth, integrating both traditional financial players and emerging decentralized systems.
As blockchain continues to evolve, the focus in 2026 is on delivering practical, legally compliant applications that can transform how businesses operate and how consumers engage with digital assets, setting the stage for long-term adoption across multiple sectors.
Emerging markets such as Brazil and Mexico are increasingly shaping the future of digital platforms. Unlike mature economies that still rely on legacy banking systems and desktop-first user journeys, much of Latin America has moved directly into mobile-first financial infrastructure. This shift is redefining how platforms design user experience, monetize services, and scale efficiently.
A major driver of this transformation is the rise of real-time payment systems. Brazil’s Pix and Mexico’s SPEI allow instant, low-cost transfers directly from mobile devices, dramatically reducing friction in online transactions. These systems have normalized expectations around speed and accessibility, particularly among younger, mobile-native users.
For digital platforms, instant settlement fundamentally changes user behavior. When payments are confirmed in seconds rather than hours or days, platforms can build experiences around immediacy. Registration flows shorten, abandonment rates decline, and engagement becomes more continuous.
Low-friction mobile UX has therefore become a strategic priority. Successful platforms in emerging markets emphasize minimal steps, native mobile flows, biometric authentication, and clear real-time feedback. In many cases, users can onboard, fund an account, and interact with a service in just a few minutes.
The combination of real-time payments and mobile-first design is also enabling new types of digital services. Subscription platforms, creator economies, on-demand applications, and interactive digital experiences all benefit from faster settlement and simplified interfaces.
For investors and platform builders, the broader takeaway is not about individual industries but about infrastructure. Markets like Brazil and Mexico demonstrate how real-time payments and low-friction UX can unlock scalable digital behavior.
As instant payment networks expand globally and crypto-based settlement layers mature, the lessons from Latin America are likely to influence digital platform design far beyond the region.
One area where this convergence is increasingly visible is online entertainment. Interactive platforms that rely on live participation and instant feedback depend heavily on low-latency interfaces and real-time transactions. In regulated digital environments, formats such as bac bo illustrate how modern payment infrastructure and mobile UX can support transparent, real-time interaction without unnecessary complexity for users.
Bitcoin is approaching what analysts describe as a decisive moment, with long-term valuation models pointing to a critical support zone that could define the remainder of the cycle.
Fresh analysis from Fidelity Investments’ global macro director Jurrien Timmer highlights $65,000 as a pivotal level if market conditions deteriorate into a traditional bear phase.
After closely tracking its long-term power law trend during the recent bull run, Bitcoin may now be due for a broader consolidation or corrective move.
Timmer suggested that price behavior is increasingly aligned with a slower adoption curve rather than aggressive exponential growth.
“It is following the internet S-curve a lot closer now than the power law curve,” Timmer acknowledged.
Historically, Bitcoin’s deepest drawdowns have coincided with moves toward the lower boundary of its power law valuation range, often marking major long-term bottoms.
“For now, the line in the sand for Bitcoin is $65k (previous high), and below that $45k. The latter is the power law trendline,” Timmer continued.
“That’s still far away but if Bitcoin consolidates for the next year, that trendline could get closer to $65k and could become a do-or-die line in the sand for Bitcoin.”
Do Bitcoin Cycles Still Matter?
The analysis has reignited debate around whether Bitcoin remains governed by four-year halving cycles that historically shaped bull and bear markets.
Timmer believes the halving’s influence is gradually diminishing as Bitcoin matures, though he maintains that bear markets are unlikely to disappear entirely.
That view was echoed by executive David Eng, who pushed back against claims that Bitcoin has entered a perpetual growth phase.
“The idea that Bitcoin has ‘graduated’ into a no-bear-market S-curve price regime misunderstands how prices form,” he argued.
“Bitcoin is a scarce fixed asset inside the financial system, not a standalone S-curve like the internet.”
Eng added that longer cycles and reduced volatility are natural outcomes as liquidity deepens and institutional participation expands.
Compressed Price Signals Point Higher
Questions around cycle theory intensified after Bitcoin ended 2025 in negative territory, breaking a long-standing post-halving pattern.
Despite that anomaly, Eng believes current valuation models suggest pent-up upside rather than prolonged stagnation.
“Bitcoin isn’t stalling it’s coiling below its long-term growth law, and history says resolution comes by price catching up, not the law giving way,” he told followers.
If that pattern holds, a relief rally could emerge even if broader macro conditions remain uncertain through 2026.