Bitcoin is showing an unusually strong resemblance to its 2022 bear-market behavior, with analysts noting that the price pattern in 2025 is aligning almost perfectly with previous cycle lows.
With the year nearing its end, the cryptocurrency remains down around 36% from its all-time high despite earlier expectations that bullish momentum would accelerate into December.
Network economist Timothy Peterson has been among the most vocal in highlighting how closely the current trajectory matches that of 2022.
“2H2025 Bitcoin is the same as 2H2022 Bitcoin,” he wrote in a recent post on X.
Correlation Metrics Reach Unprecedented Levels
Peterson’s analysis shows that the daily correlation between 2025 and 2022 market action sits at roughly 80%.
The monthly correlation has climbed even higher, hitting an extraordinary 98%.
Charts accompanying his research indicate that if the trend remains intact, Bitcoin may not see a significant rebound until sometime in the first quarter of 2026.
These findings have unsettled investors who hoped the market would rebound heading into the holiday period.
Peterson recently summarized November’s performance with blunt clarity.
“It feels bad because it is bad,” he wrote, adding that “this month ranks in the bottom 10% of daily price paths since 2015.”
Historical Patterns Suggest December May Bring More Losses
Bitcoin’s negative performance in November has historical implications.
Data shows that when the cryptocurrency posts a “red” November, December often follows with further declines, though usually with reduced severity.
With only weeks remaining in the year, traders are now weighing whether macro-driven optimism could deliver an end-of-year “Santa rally” or whether the market will continue mimicking 2022’s prolonged slump.
Shift in Macro Environment Boosts Equities
While crypto endured a challenging month, broader financial markets have shown signs of recovery.
Figures reported by The Kobeissi Letter indicate that US equity funds have witnessed $900 billion in inflows since November 2024, with $450 billion arriving within the last five months alone.
The publication noted: “Put differently, equities have attracted more inflows than all other asset classes COMBINED.
Equity inflows remain remarkably strong.”
This surge contrasts with the relatively muted performance of other asset classes, creating a divergence between stock-market sentiment and crypto-market behavior.
ETF Inflows Signal Potential Crypto Stabilization
Despite the recent sell-off, new data suggests that institutional crypto participation may be recovering.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $220 billion in inflows during Thanksgiving week, a noteworthy improvement after weeks of consistent redemptions.
Spot Ether ETFs saw a similar turnaround, adding $312 million over the same period.
These inflows may indicate that institutional investors are positioning ahead of a possible early-2026 recovery.
Crypto-linked stocks saw strong upward movement on Friday as traders reacted to a sharp rise in prediction-market forecasts pointing to a December interest-rate cut.
The odds listed on Polymarket rose to 87% — the highest level recorded this month — and that shift in expectations drove renewed appetite for crypto-exposed equities.
Several U.S.-listed Bitcoin miners led the day’s advance.
Cleanspark, Riot Platforms and Cipher Mining each recorded gains during Friday’s session, adding to a streak of double-digit increases over the previous five days.
Circle, the issuer of USDC, also made notable progress with nearly a 10% jump in early trading.
Strategy, backed by Michael Saylor, alongside Coinbase, logged more modest increases but still participated in the broader market move.
Bitcoin itself added around 7% over the past week after briefly dipping to roughly $82,000 on Nov. 21.
Interest-Rate Commentary Drives Market Volatility
The rapid swings in prediction-market pricing throughout November have largely been tied to comments from Federal Reserve officials.
On Oct. 29, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that a December rate cut was “not a foregone conclusion,” which investors interpreted as a hawkish signal.
That single remark led to prediction-market odds collapsing from 89% the previous day to around 22% by Nov. 20.
The sentiment reversal began on Nov. 17 after Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated the central bank should actively consider a rate cut next month.
He argued that “the labor market is still weak and near stall speed” and that inflation appeared “relatively close” to the Fed’s 2% target.
The remarks immediately reshaped expectations and helped drive the latest price rally in crypto-linked assets.
Prediction Markets Gain Influence Across Industries
Prediction markets have expanded significantly this year as more companies and investors embrace the model.
Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have attracted users by allowing wagers on political developments, financial outcomes and major global events.
Polymarket recently secured a multi-year partnership to act as the official prediction-market platform for both the UFC and Zuffa Boxing.
The company has also grown through other strategic partnerships that broaden the use of prediction contracts across entertainment and sports.
Meanwhile, Kalshi has continued its own expansion after attracting major investment rounds that substantially increased its valuation.
Both platforms have reported surging user activity as traders increasingly use prediction markets to anticipate economic decisions, including those from the Federal Reserve.
Trading Apps Join the Prediction-Market Trend
The rapid rise of prediction markets has also caught the attention of larger trading platforms.
Robinhood recently confirmed that prediction markets have become one of its fastest-growing revenue categories.
The platform said that more than one million users have already traded billions of contracts since the feature launched earlier this year.
Rumors have also circulated that Coinbase is developing a prediction-market platform of its own, following the appearance of early interface images.
The acceleration of these platforms underscores a broader trend: traders across traditional and crypto markets are relying more heavily on probabilistic pricing tools to interpret and react to policy shifts.
As expectations for a December rate cut climb, crypto-linked stocks appear positioned to remain sensitive to any new signals from the Federal Reserve.
Bitcoin held its ground above the $90,000 support level on Thursday, benefiting from a pause in US trading activity during the Thanksgiving holiday and sparking fresh optimism that a more sustained recovery may be forming.
Data from market tracking platforms showed BTC/USD stabilizing after hitting weekly highs near $92,000 earlier in the day.
The lack of a Wall Street session removed short-term selling pressure, offering bulls a temporary window of relief.
Traders said attention now turns to the critical resistance zone near the 2025 yearly opening price at just over $93,000.
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe described the area as a pivotal barrier that could determine Bitcoin’s next major move.
“If this levels breaks, Bitcoin is back up to $100K,” he wrote on X.
He added that the latest upswing represented “a pretty strong bounce upwards,” but cautioned he wanted to see “some consolidation” before a decisive breakout attempt.
Market liquidity indicators suggest that a substantial cluster of resting orders sits between $97,000 and $98,000.
Trader Daan Crypto Trades identified this zone as a key near-term upside target, noting that heavy sell-offs from earlier in the month created a “big liquidity pocket” at that level.
He pointed out that the region also aligns with a horizontal price structure that could attract both short-covering and breakout buyers.
Some traders maintain that a retest of $88,000 would not be unexpected, with van de Poppe saying he “wouldn’t mind” such a move and arguing that the broader crypto bull cycle remains “far from over.”
On-chain indicators show improving conditions underneath the surface.
J. A. Maartunn, a contributor to analytics platform CryptoQuant, reported that spot taker cumulative volume delta — a measure that has hovered in negative territory — has recently moved back toward neutral.
He described the shift as a “significant step forward” for market recovery.
Earlier this month, analysts highlighted the negative trend in spot taker CVD as one of several risk factors as Bitcoin traded above $100,000.
CryptoQuant researchers now argue that data across spot, futures, and on-chain markets reflects the unwinding of what they termed a “leveraged phase.”
In a recent analysis, XWIN Research Japan wrote that the market is showing signs of longer-term capital returning, citing a retail futures activity indicator that has flipped green and historically aligns with key market turning points.
The current stabilization comes after a volatile stretch for Bitcoin.
Earlier in November, the market wrestled with heavy selling and rapid liquidations tied to broader macro uncertainty and rising geopolitical tensions.
Despite that turbulence, Bitcoin’s ability to hold $90,000 suggests buyers are actively defending strategic levels as the year heads into its final weeks.
With holiday-related lower volumes and upcoming macro events likely to influence market direction, traders say Bitcoin’s next moves could define the opening narrative for 2026.
For now, the return of bullish sentiment, improving liquidity conditions, and on-chain stabilization are raising hopes that the recent rebound may be more than a temporary pause.
Bitcoin (BTC) has begun a steady recovery after last week’s steep correction, moving back toward the $87,000 to $90,000 range.
The cryptocurrency fell from $106,000 to $80,600 in just 10 days, prompting renewed speculation over whether BTC has reached a local bottom.
The rebound comes even as major whale holders continue to sell their BTC, though mid-sized holders and long-term accumulators are showing increased conviction in the market.
Accumulation and Distribution Patterns
Onchain analytics reveal significant differences in behavior between various BTC holder cohorts.
Wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC, along with institutional investors holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC, acted as consistent sellers during the correction, contributing to downward pressure.
Retail wallets, defined as holding less than 10 BTC, also sold off over the past 60 days, providing little market support.
In contrast, mid-sized holders in the 10–100 BTC and 100–1,000 BTC ranges accumulated BTC, helping absorb sell-side pressure and stabilize prices.
Demand from Bitcoin “accumulator addresses” hit a record 365,000 BTC on Nov. 23, up from 254,000 BTC on Nov. 1, indicating growing long-term confidence among certain investors.
Futures Market and Short Squeeze Potential
The recent BTC crash was largely fueled by futures markets, where cascading long liquidations, forced selling, and margin calls pushed BTC into the $80,000 range.
CryptoQuant data shows that traders attempting to long the correction have been squeezed out, with daily funding rates briefly turning negative.
Analyst Darkfost warned that if shorts continue to pile up while BTC gradually rises, the market could enter a “disbelief phase,” creating the conditions for a sharp short squeeze.
Long liquidation heatmaps from Hyblock Capital indicate $2.6 billion in long liquidations at $80,000, while short liquidations surged over $8.4 billion near $98,000, showing the influence of liquidity bands at $94,000, $98,000, and $110,000.
These dynamics suggest that BTC’s rebound may continue toward the $90,000 mark as mid-sized holders and accumulators provide steady support.
Bitcoin traders posted noticeably more optimistic commentary on Friday after the likelihood of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in December surged sharply within a 24-hour period.
The CME FedWatch Tool showed the probability of a rate cut rising to 69.40% on Friday, up from 39.10% the previous day.
Some analysts argue the shift could provide the catalyst needed to stabilize Bitcoin’s recent price decline.
Crypto analyst Moritz wrote, “Let’s see if that’s enough to find a bottom here for now,” as Bitcoin traded near $85,071 and remained down roughly 10% over the past week.
Dovish Fed Commentary Sparks Market Reaction
The rise in rate-cut expectations followed comments from New York Federal Reserve president John Williams, who said the central bank could lower rates “in the near term” without jeopardizing inflation progress.
Bloomberg analyst Joe Weisenthal pointed to the remarks as the cause for the surge in futures pricing.
Not everyone is convinced the shift will lead to immediate relief.
Economist Mohamed El-Erian warned that investors should not get “carried away,” but broader sentiment across the crypto market leaned bullish.
Crypto commentator Mister Crypto summarized the mood by noting, “Usually this would be bullish.”
Analysts Highlight a Potentially “Bullish Setup”
Crypto analyst Jesse Eckel described the backdrop as highly favorable, saying, “If you zoom out, the setup is unfathomably bullish.”
Eckel added, “I don’t know why we keep going lower,” arguing that markets appear to be moving from a tightening cycle to an easing one.
Another analyst, Curb, said, “Crypto will explode in a massive rally,” if cuts arrive as many traders now expect.
Rate cuts historically benefit higher-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies by reducing the yield advantage of traditional savings vehicles.
Coinbase Institutional Says Odds Were Previously Mispriced
Coinbase Institutional also weighed in, saying in an X post that markets have been underestimating the probability of a cut.
“While markets are leaning toward ‘no cut’ this time, we believe the odds for a rate cut are actually mispriced,” the firm said.
The post noted that inflation signals and tariff-related economic research support a case for reducing rates sooner than expected.
Despite the boost in sentiment, the broader crypto market continues to show weakness.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to an “Extreme Fear” score of 14 on Friday, marking one of its lowest readings in recent weeks.
WhiteBIT, the largest European cryptocurrency exchange by traffic, has entered into a strategic cooperation agreement with Durrah AlFodah Holding, represented by His Royal Highness Prince Naif Bin Abdullah Bin Saud Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, to drive the Kingdom’s advancement in blockchain technology, digital finance, and data infrastructure.
This landmark agreement was facilitated by Seaside Arabia, which served as the strategic consultant and subject matter expert throughout the process, guiding the framework and objectives of the partnership. This cooperation aligns directly with the strategic pillars of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Vision 2030, fostering economic diversification, technological innovation, and digital transformation across the Kingdom’s public and private sectors.
The partnership sets the foundation for key national-scale projects within the Kingdom, including:
• Stock Market Tokenization – introducing blockchain-based digital securities to enhance transparency, accessibility, and liquidity in the Saudi financial market;
• Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Framework Development – supporting infrastructure research and design for a sovereign digital currency ecosystem;
• National Data Computing and Mining Centers – building secure and large-scale facilities for data processing, blockchain computation, and digital asset mining.
Under the agreement, Durrah AlFodah will facilitate WhiteBIT’s market entry, regulatory engagement, and partnership development across Saudi Arabia, while WhiteBIT will provide technological expertise and infrastructure design. The collaboration also envisions the formation of a joint venture company to manage and scale these initiatives.
Volodymyr Nosov, Founder and President of W Group, which WhiteBIT is, stated:
“It is an honor to work alongside the Holding of His Royal Highness Prince Naif Bin Abdullah Bin Saud to build the foundations of Saudi Arabia’s digital transformation. Together, we aim to establish secure and sovereign blockchain systems that will shape the Kingdom’s technological future.”
This agreement reinforces a shared vision between both parties — to make Saudi Arabia a regional hub for blockchain innovation, digital finance, and data sovereignty.
Author: Thomas Goldstein
Senator Tim Scott, the chair of the Senate Banking Committee, says he expects progress on a major crypto market structure bill as early as next month.
He told Fox Business that he aims to schedule a markup with the goal of sending the legislation to President Donald Trump early next year.
Scott said negotiations with Democrats remain ongoing, but he accused them of delaying action.
“Next month, we believe we can mark up in both committees and get this to the floor of the Senate early next year so that President Trump will sign the legislation making America the crypto capital of the world,” Scott said.
A Push for Regulatory Clarity
Lawmakers have been working to define the regulatory roles of the SEC and CFTC, particularly following the House’s passage of the CLARITY Act earlier this year.
That bill outlined the responsibilities of the two agencies and established rules defining when a token qualifies as a commodity or security.
The Senate has been developing its own version of the proposal, with the Agriculture Committee responsible for commodity oversight and the Banking Committee leading securities-related sections.
Both committees released discussion drafts over the past several months, leaving room for further negotiations before a final version is introduced.
Industry Leaders Call for Action
Supporters of the bill say that clearer federal rules are urgently needed to keep crypto businesses from moving offshore.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said in a video message that he has been in Washington pushing for the bill, adding that he believes lawmakers are making tangible progress.
“Senate banking is also working nights and weekends to get the next iteration of their text out, so we’ve got a good chance, I think, of a markup for this bill in December, hopefully get it to the president’s desk shortly thereafter,” Armstrong said.
“This would be a big milestone to get crypto unlocked with clear rules in the US, which would benefit all companies,” he said.
What Happens Next
If the Senate passes its version, the two chambers will need to reconcile their respective drafts.
Once a final bill is approved, it would be sent to President Trump for signature.
Republicans currently hold 53 seats in the Senate, compared to 47 for Democrats, meaning bipartisan backing will still be required to reach the 60 votes needed for passage.
The coming weeks will determine whether the long-delayed effort to build a national crypto framework will finally move forward.
ARK Invest has increased its exposure to crypto-linked equities, adding significant amounts of BitMine Immersion Technologies and Bullish shares across multiple exchange-traded funds while broader markets continued to trend downward.
Daily trade disclosures from Friday show that the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF acquired 18,089 BitMine shares.
The ARK Next Generation Internet ETF purchased an additional 34,637 shares.
The ARK Innovation ETF added the largest amount at 116,681 shares.
In total, ARK bought 169,407 BitMine shares on the day, an investment valued at approximately $5.83 million.
Separately, ARKF bought 8,063 shares of Bullish.
ARKW added 15,441 shares.
ARKK acquired 52,011 more.
These combined purchases amounted to 75,515 Bullish shares worth roughly $2.91 million.
Buying During Market Weakness
The renewed accumulation came as both stocks were hit by heavy selling pressure.
Bullish closed down 6.19% at $38.48.
BitMine fell nearly 6% to $34.40.
Both recovered slightly in after-hours trading.
ARK’s steady buying during dips has become a recurring strategy, particularly as the firm positions itself more aggressively in digital-asset-linked equities.
ARK’s Expanding Crypto Acquisition Strategy
This latest move follows ARK’s recent multi-day acquisition of Circle (CRCL) shares.
Over two days last week, the firm purchased 542,269 Circle shares for a combined cost of roughly $46 million.
The buying took place as Circle’s stock continued to decline, falling first to $86 and then to $82.30.
These transactions mark ARK’s first Circle purchases since June, when the firm sold approximately 1.7 million shares at an average price of $200, generating $352 million.
ARK has also continued to expand its position in BitMine.
On Thursday, the firm purchased 242,347 additional BitMine shares for around $8.9 million after the stock dropped below $37.
BitMine’s Leadership Shift Adds Further Attention
BitMine has drawn broader market interest following its announcement of a leadership transition.
The firm confirmed that Chi Tsang has replaced Jonathan Bates as CEO, and it also appointed three new independent board members.
More than 3.5 million Ether — valued at over $11 billion — now sits in BitMine’s treasury.
The company’s transformation from a mining-focused business to a major institutional holder of Ethereum has intensified comparisons to Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which maintains the largest Bitcoin treasury among publicly traded firms.
ARK’s Long-Term Positioning in Crypto Markets
ARK’s ongoing crypto-related acquisitions indicate confidence in long-term growth opportunities despite near-term volatility across digital asset markets.
The firm’s activity aligns with its broader investment philosophy, which favors high-growth, high-risk innovation sectors even during downturns.
Whether this accumulation continues will likely depend on how crypto-linked equities perform as broader macroeconomic conditions evolve.
Michael Saylor, executive chair of Strategy, has dismissed reports that the company reduced its Bitcoin holdings during the latest flash crash, calling the claims inaccurate and reaffirming the firm’s long-term accumulation strategy.
His comments arrived after a steep 24-hour price drop that pushed Bitcoin from above $100,000 to below $95,000.
Saylor Says Reports of Bitcoin Selling Are False
In a Friday post on X, Saylor said there was “no truth” to suggestions that Strategy had cut its Bitcoin reserves by about 47,000 BTC — a reduction worth $4.6 billion at current prices.
He emphasized that the company was continuing to purchase Bitcoin, even as volatility intensified and the price fell more than 4% in a single day.
“I think the volatility comes with the territory,” Saylor said in a CNBC interview on Friday.
“If you’re going to be a Bitcoin investor, you need a four-year time horizon and you need to be prepared to handle the volatility in this market.”
Strategy remains the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder with a treasury of roughly 640,000 BTC.
However, its dominance has tapered as other institutions increased their accumulation.
Companies including Coinbase and Metaplanet acquired more Bitcoin in October than Strategy, reducing the firm’s lead.
Strategy Stock Declines Amid Market Uncertainty
Shares of Strategy (MSTR) have mirrored some of the weakness seen in the crypto market.
According to Nasdaq data, the stock fell to $205.38 at the time of publication — a drop of more than 17% over the previous five days.
Market analysts noted that declining Bitcoin prices, combined with increased competition in corporate BTC accumulation, have added pressure to the stock.
Government Shutdown Ends, Bitcoin Reaction Mixed
The end of a 43-day U.S. government shutdown brought a temporary boost to financial markets earlier in the week, though it remains unclear whether the resolution will have a lasting influence on Bitcoin’s trajectory.
BTC surged above $106,000 on Sunday amid optimism that lawmakers were nearing a funding deal.
A second rally occurred on Wednesday after the House passed a continuing resolution followed by President Donald Trump signing it into law.
However, data from Nansen showed the rally faded once government operations officially restarted on Thursday.
Bitcoin’s price fell below $100,000 shortly afterward, suggesting that macro relief alone is insufficient to sustain upward momentum in current market conditions.
Bitcoin’s latest price action continues to test investor confidence as the cryptocurrency struggles to recover from its recent drop.
After briefly dipping to around $100,700 on Wednesday, BTC remains down roughly 3.5% on the weekly candle.
The move is part of a wider trend that has seen long-term holders unload more than 815,000 BTC over the past month.
That level of selling has raised alarms among analysts who warn that lower liquidity pockets could drive Bitcoin toward the June 2025 lows near $98,000 if volatility accelerates.
The broader market is now watching how Bitcoin behaves around the critical $100,000 region, which has repeatedly been tested throughout the year.
Liquidity Mapping Shows Market Vulnerability
Crypto analysts following liquidity flow patterns say that Bitcoin’s current range is showing clear pockets of weakness.
Trader Daan Crypto noted that a “large cluster of liquidity sits below the local lows at $98,000–$100,000,” suggesting that if selling pressure increases, the market may gravitate toward that zone.
He also pointed to upside liquidity targets near $108,000 and $112,000 but stressed that only the first target is currently within realistic reach.
According to his assessment, whichever liquidity band breaks first could determine whether Bitcoin enters a sharp short squeeze or a capitulation-style flush.
This view is backed by several futures traders who say BTC is increasingly likely to revisit the lower end of its range.
Futures trader Byzantine General stated that Bitcoin “is likely to sweep the lows around $98,000,” citing repeated failures to break higher.
Data from CoinGlass supports this bearish tilt, showing nearly $1.3 billion in cumulative long leveraged liquidity concentrated around $98,000.
That figure has risen sharply since the beginning of the week, indicating that traders have layered bids just below current levels.
Repeated Support Retests Signal Structural Weakness
One of the more worrying indicators for market analysts is the consistent retesting of support between $102,000 and $100,000.
Bitcoin has now returned to that region four separate times since May 2025.
Each retest weakens buyers’ conviction and reduces the number of resting bids available to defend the support line.
Analyst UBCrypto said the latest bounce resembled a failed breakout attempt and added that the region is “not a level worth buying into” until Bitcoin shows a confirmed shift in momentum.
He argued that entering positions slightly higher is preferable if it means avoiding a potential breakdown.
Despite this caution, long-heavy positioning remains dominant among retail traders.
Hyblock Capital data shows that 68.9% of BTC orders on Binance still lean long, suggesting many believe the $100,000 level will hold.
However, the daily and weekly charts both show softening structure at higher time frames.
This has increased expectations that Bitcoin may eventually test the liquidity pool near $98,000 before the market finds a stronger footing.
Deeper order book support appears to sit just above Bitcoin’s current price, but analysts warn that the market could still be pulled into lower liquidity areas if sentiment deteriorates.
If selling from long-term holders continues and short-term traders remain overleveraged, Bitcoin may still face additional downside pressure before recovery attempts strengthen.