Bitcoin is under pressure as macro analysts warn that an expected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan on December 19 could trigger a deeper correction toward the 70,000 dollar level.
Several analysts say past market reactions suggest Bitcoin is vulnerable when Japanese monetary policy tightens.
The core concern centers on liquidity.
When the Bank of Japan raises rates, global borrowing costs increase, the yen strengthens and carry trades unwind.
This combination has historically weighed on risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Previous BOJ Hikes Triggered Steep Market Pullbacks
Data from analyst AndrewBTC shows that every BOJ rate hike since 2024 coincided with significant declines in Bitcoin.
The asset fell by around 23% in March 2024, 26% in July 2024 and 31% in January 2025 following policy tightening announcements.
The analyst argues that similar conditions are emerging again as the central bank signals another interest rate increase.
Economists in a recent survey overwhelmingly expect the BOJ to move ahead with tightening this month.
The dynamics behind these declines stem from Japan’s role in global liquidity flows.
When Japanese rates rise, borrowing becomes more expensive and leveraged investors often unwind positions built on cheap yen financing.
Such periods generally trigger risk-off sentiment across global markets.
Bitcoin, widely held through leverage across derivatives platforms, tends to be sensitive to liquidity shocks.
Analyst EX said BTC will “dump below $70,000” if macro conditions develop as expected.
His outlook aligns with others who see Bitcoin’s recent weakness as part of a broader liquidity-driven repricing.
Technical Signals Also Point Toward a $70,000 Target
Chart analysts note that Bitcoin is currently trading inside a bear flag pattern.
The structure formed after Bitcoin’s sharp drop from the 105,000 to 110,000 dollar zone earlier in the year, followed by a narrow upward drift.
Bear flags usually indicate a pause before the prevailing downtrend continues.
A breakdown below the lower trendline could push Bitcoin toward the 70,000 to 72,500 dollar region.
Multiple analysts, including James Check and Sellén, have outlined similar targets over the past month.
They argue that technical and macro factors are overlapping at a time when liquidity is tightening worldwide.
The convergence of patterns has made traders increasingly cautious.
Many see the coming BOJ decision as a potential trigger for a sharp move.
Bitcoin’s Short-Term Outlook Remains Fragile
Analysts say market sentiment has weakened significantly since Bitcoin failed to reclaim the 105,000 dollar level earlier in the year.
Each rebound attempt has met strong selling pressure.
With liquidity thinning and macro uncertainty rising, traders are watching whether Bitcoin can hold current support levels.
A decisive break could open the door to deeper retracement.
For now, the dominant view is that Bitcoin is exposed if the BOJ raises rates again.
Japan’s monetary decisions have become an unusually important driver for global risk assets.
Bitcoin’s path will depend on whether macro tightening continues and whether buyers return with enough strength to absorb the next wave of selling.
Until then, analysts see elevated downside risk and limited signs of bullish momentum.
