Bitcoin is approaching what analysts describe as a decisive moment, with long-term valuation models pointing to a critical support zone that could define the remainder of the cycle.
Fresh analysis from Fidelity Investments’ global macro director Jurrien Timmer highlights $65,000 as a pivotal level if market conditions deteriorate into a traditional bear phase.
After closely tracking its long-term power law trend during the recent bull run, Bitcoin may now be due for a broader consolidation or corrective move.
Timmer suggested that price behavior is increasingly aligned with a slower adoption curve rather than aggressive exponential growth.
“It is following the internet S-curve a lot closer now than the power law curve,” Timmer acknowledged.
Historically, Bitcoin’s deepest drawdowns have coincided with moves toward the lower boundary of its power law valuation range, often marking major long-term bottoms.
“For now, the line in the sand for Bitcoin is $65k (previous high), and below that $45k. The latter is the power law trendline,” Timmer continued.
“That’s still far away but if Bitcoin consolidates for the next year, that trendline could get closer to $65k and could become a do-or-die line in the sand for Bitcoin.”
Do Bitcoin Cycles Still Matter?
The analysis has reignited debate around whether Bitcoin remains governed by four-year halving cycles that historically shaped bull and bear markets.
Timmer believes the halving’s influence is gradually diminishing as Bitcoin matures, though he maintains that bear markets are unlikely to disappear entirely.
That view was echoed by executive David Eng, who pushed back against claims that Bitcoin has entered a perpetual growth phase.
“The idea that Bitcoin has ‘graduated’ into a no-bear-market S-curve price regime misunderstands how prices form,” he argued.
“Bitcoin is a scarce fixed asset inside the financial system, not a standalone S-curve like the internet.”
Eng added that longer cycles and reduced volatility are natural outcomes as liquidity deepens and institutional participation expands.
Compressed Price Signals Point Higher
Questions around cycle theory intensified after Bitcoin ended 2025 in negative territory, breaking a long-standing post-halving pattern.
Despite that anomaly, Eng believes current valuation models suggest pent-up upside rather than prolonged stagnation.
“Bitcoin isn’t stalling it’s coiling below its long-term growth law, and history says resolution comes by price catching up, not the law giving way,” he told followers.
If that pattern holds, a relief rally could emerge even if broader macro conditions remain uncertain through 2026.
