The Bitcoin market has experienced a significant downturn following its fourth halving, confounding expectations of a surge similar to previous cycles.
Since the halving event on April 20, Bitcoin’s value has plummeted by 11%.
It was trading around $64,000 at the time of the halving, briefly climbed above $67,000 two days later, but then dropped to below $57,000 by May 1, as per CoinGecko.
Currently, the price stands at $57,362, marking a 7% decrease over the last 24 hours and a 17% decline over the month.
This downturn has surprised market observers who anticipated a rise post-halving, in line with historical trends where significant rallies often followed such events.
For instance, after the 2016 halving, Bitcoin surged approximately 3,000% within 17 months, achieving a then-record high of $20,000 in December 2017.
This year’s halving diverges from previous patterns due primarily to an unprecedented bull run leading up to the event, which saw Bitcoin reach new highs.
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“What’s unique about this latest Bitcoin halving is the incredible bull run and price action leading up to it.
“Even considering this recent pullback, Bitcoin has still been up 35% since the start of the year,” Mati Greenspan of Quantum Economics explained to Cointelegraph.
Greenspan also reasoned that the recent drop was predictable, given broader economic pressures and market trends, remarking, “Considering the expectation of yet another Fed pivot and what’s happening in the stock market, Bitcoin’s current price action is hardly a surprise.
“We’ll be a lot smarter about that later today, though.”
Predictions had been made as early as March 2024 by analysts at JPMorgan, suggesting a potential decline in Bitcoin’s price to around $42,000 post-halving.
Markus Thielen, CEO and head analyst at 10x Research, forecasts a further dip to $52,000. Thielen attributes the previous rally mainly to substantial inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, which have significantly reduced recently.
Despite the current decline, some experts, including investment researcher Lyn Alden, believe there are compelling reasons, beyond just the halving and U.S. ETFs, for Bitcoin to achieve new heights in 2024.
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