Prediction market traders on Polymarket are expressing notable caution about Bitcoin’s near-term price potential, with relatively low odds assigned to extreme upside scenarios despite widespread bullish forecasts for next year.
Data from the Polymarket contract asking “what price will Bitcoin hit before 2027?” shows traders leaning toward modest gains rather than a rapid surge to new highs.
According to the platform, Bitcoin has a 45% probability of reaching $120,000, a level that remains below its previous all-time high and reflects restrained expectations.
Confidence declines further as price targets rise, with $130,000 carrying just a 35% probability and $140,000 priced at 28%.
Only 21% of traders believe Bitcoin will climb as high as $150,000 within the next two years, underlining the market’s current hesitancy.
The most widely supported outcome remains Bitcoin reaching $100,000, which holds an 80% probability and is viewed as the most realistic upside scenario.
End of the Four-Year Cycle Clouds Outlook
Market caution appears linked to Bitcoin closing 2025 in negative territory, an outcome that has shaken confidence in long-standing market patterns.
For years, many investors relied on the four-year cycle tied to Bitcoin’s halving events to anticipate major price movements.
That framework helped traders map out bull and bear phases with relative consistency across previous cycles.
With the latest cycle failing to deliver a clear upside finish, doubts have emerged about whether the model still applies.
The breakdown of this historical pattern has prompted traders to reassess risk, potentially explaining the subdued odds for aggressive price targets.
It has also opened the possibility that new trading dynamics could define Bitcoin’s future behavior.
Analysts Remain Firmly Bullish
Despite restrained prediction market sentiment, analysts continue to argue that Bitcoin’s longer-term outlook remains strong.
Much of this optimism is tied to shifting macroeconomic and political expectations in the United States.
President Donald Trump is expected to announce a new Federal Reserve chair in the coming weeks, a move many believe could signal a more accommodative monetary stance.
Markets are increasingly pricing in the likelihood of interest rate cuts, which historically favor risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
This anticipation has already fueled strong rallies in precious metals, with gold and silver both reaching new all-time highs late in 2025.
By contrast, digital assets have lagged behind, suggesting potential upside if capital rotates back into crypto markets.
Regulation and Institutional Adoption in Focus
Regulatory developments are also seen as a key catalyst for renewed momentum.
Major crypto legislation, including the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act, is expected to bring clearer rules for market participants.
Greater regulatory certainty could encourage more institutional investors to enter the space with long-term commitments.
Several major financial institutions believe these factors will converge in Bitcoin’s favor during 2026.
Firms such as Standard Chartered, Strategy, and Bernstein have forecast Bitcoin reaching $150,000 next year.
More optimistic projections, including those from Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, suggest prices could ultimately rise toward the $200,000 to $250,000 range.
