Ether’s daily chart is showing signs of a developing double bottom pattern, a formation that often signals potential trend reversal.
The structure has taken shape across the fourth quarter of 2025, marked by repeated defenses of a key demand zone.
If confirmed, the pattern points toward a possible move to the $3,900 area, roughly 20% above current levels.
Despite this constructive setup, ETH faces an immediate technical hurdle.
200-day EMA remains a critical barrier
The 200-period exponential moving average has capped price advances since the broader trend turned bearish in November.
Ether has failed twice to reclaim this level, with each rejection followed by renewed downside pressure.
As price tests the moving average again, the market is approaching a decisive inflection point.
A sustained daily close above the 200-EMA would suggest acceptance above long-term trend resistance.
From a structural perspective, a strong close above $3,300 would also mark a bullish break of structure on the daily chart.
Volume data shows buyer conviction
Beyond price levels, volume-based indicators are offering insight into the nature of ETH’s recent rebound.
Cumulative Volume Delta tracks the net difference between aggressive buy and sell orders over time.
Rising CVD typically reflects taker-buy dominance, where buyers are willing to pay higher prices rather than wait passively.
Data shows that both spot and futures taker CVDs have trended higher over the past three weeks.
This alignment across markets often points to genuine demand rather than short-covering rallies.
Whale behavior diverges from retail activity
While aggregate volume data looks supportive, wallet-level analysis reveals a split beneath the surface.
Whale wallets holding between $100,000 and $10 million recorded a negative $40 million cumulative delta this week.
That suggests larger players have been net sellers during the recent recovery phase.
In contrast, retail wallets and mid-sized traders posted modest positive deltas over the past six days.
These figures indicate that smaller participants are driving much of the current upside momentum.
A defining moment for ETH
The divergence raises questions about sustainability if larger holders remain on the sidelines.
A clean break above the 200-EMA could entice whales back into the market.
Failure to clear resistance may leave ETH vulnerable to another stall or pullback.
For now, the double bottom thesis remains intact but unconfirmed.
The next daily close could prove decisive for Ether’s near-term trajectory.
