A Bitcoin bottom signal that previously preceded a powerful rally has reemerged, but shifting liquidity dynamics and deteriorating fund flows suggest that any recovery may unfold far differently from the surge witnessed in 2024.
Market observers are closely watching on-chain and macroeconomic indicators, as historical risk models now show conditions resembling those that marked the end of the prior major correction cycle.
On-Chain Metrics Flash Familiar Warning
Data from Swissblock shows Bitcoin has spent 25 consecutive days in its “extreme high risk” zone, surpassing the 23-day stretch recorded in 2023 before prices rebounded sharply.
Historically, such prolonged stays in elevated risk territory have coincided with late-stage drawdowns that eventually transitioned into durable bottoming structures and subsequent bullish expansions.
MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe highlighted the BTC versus supply in profit and loss chart, noting that price interaction with these levels has previously marked accumulation phases.
In 2023, the shift from high risk to low risk aligned with the beginning of a rally that ultimately delivered gains exceeding 130% during the following year.
However, traders caution that the current setup lacks the decisive follow-through buying that characterized prior recoveries, leaving the market vulnerable to renewed volatility.
Demand Weakness And ETF Outflows Weigh On Sentiment
RugaResearch reports that 30-day apparent demand continues oscillating between positive and negative readings, indicating that sustained buying conviction has yet to dominate the tape.
Although selling pressure appears to have moderated in recent sessions, analysts argue that inconsistent demand undermines confidence in a near-term breakout.
Exchange-traded fund flows further complicate the outlook, with Bitcoin funds recording negative 90-day rolling averages currently sitting at approximately negative $2.06 billion.
Over the same period, cumulative inflows into gold ETFs have exceeded spot Bitcoin ETF flows, suggesting investors may be favoring traditional hedges amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
This divergence in capital allocation reflects a more cautious environment compared with the liquidity-fueled optimism that underpinned previous rebounds.
Macro Headwinds And Key Price Levels
Inflation data also remains a critical variable, as headline Personal Consumption Expenditures hover near 2.9% year over year while core readings remain closer to 3.0%.
Core services inflation above 3.4% reinforces the perception that the Federal Reserve may maintain restrictive policy longer than risk assets would prefer.
Without clear evidence of easing financial conditions, expectations for aggressive liquidity expansion appear limited, potentially delaying any sustained upward momentum in Bitcoin.
CMCC Crest Managing Partner Willy Woo warned that short-term rallies toward $70,000 or $80,000 could encounter renewed selling pressure because “the broader regime is heavily bearish with both spot and futures liquidity deteriorating”.
Woo identified $45,000 as a pivotal level aligned with the prior bear market structure, while $30,000 and $16,000 represent deeper historical support zones tied to long-term trend preservation.
While bottom signals may be forming, analysts emphasize that major drawdowns outside extraordinary policy interventions have historically required patience before translating into durable recoveries.
Ransomware incidents surged by roughly 50 percent in 2025, as attackers increasingly pivoted toward small and medium-sized enterprises rather than pursuing large, high-profile corporate breaches.
According to blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis, nearly 8,000 leak events were recorded during the year, marking a significant escalation in publicly disclosed attacks compared with 2024.
Despite that surge in activity, total on-chain ransom payments declined to $820 million, representing an eight percent drop from the prior year and highlighting a widening gap between attack volume and realized returns.
Structural Shift In Criminal Economics
Researchers pointed to heightened regulatory scrutiny and enforcement actions targeting laundering infrastructure as key factors constraining attackers’ ability to convert extortion demands into cryptocurrency proceeds.
They also cited a growing refusal among large organizations to pay ransoms, which has reduced the financial incentives associated with headline-grabbing corporate intrusions.
“We’re seeing a structural shift in targeting: fewer large, headline-grabbing intrusions and more volume focused on small and medium enterprises. The assumption is simple — smaller victims pay faster,” eCrime.ch founder Corsin Camichel said in the report, adding:
“However, Chainalysis’ data shows payments trending downward despite an all-time high in public claims. That divergence is important. It suggests attackers are working harder for diminishing returns.”
Cheap Access And AI Tools Fuel Volume
The increase in attempted attacks has been linked to a sharp decline in the average price for victim network access sold on dark web marketplaces, which fell from $1,427 in early 2023 to $439 at the start of 2026.
An influx of inexpensive ransomware strains and automation tools, including artificial intelligence integrations, has lowered barriers to entry and enabled less sophisticated actors to launch campaigns at scale.
“We are seeing industrialized access pipelines, AI-assisted tooling, and a proliferation of infostealer logs that lower the barrier to entry, which has resulted in an oversupply of cheap but operationally constrained inventory that floods the market and depresses pricing.”
Crypto Losses Continue Into 2026
Although ransomware payments moderated in 2025, the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem continues to face elevated security risks entering 2026, with significant losses recorded from exploits and phishing campaigns.
Cybersecurity firm CertiK reported that $370.3 million in crypto assets were stolen in January alone, with phishing scams accounting for $311.3 million of that total.
The evolving threat landscape underscores how cybercriminal operations are adapting rapidly to enforcement pressure, combining lower-cost tooling with diversified tactics in pursuit of sustained illicit revenue streams.
Bitcoin prices retreated sharply on Tuesday, falling 4% within 24 hours to an intraday low of $62,700, as renewed selling pressure from short-term holders intensified market volatility.
Analysts observed that the cryptocurrency has transitioned into what they describe as an “excess loss-realization” phase, characterised by elevated levels of capitulation among recent buyers reacting to macroeconomic uncertainty.
The decline followed the announcement of a new 15% global tariff by US President Donald Trump, which triggered heightened risk aversion across digital asset markets and accelerated short-term liquidation activity.
Short-Term Holders Drive Selling Pressure
On-chain data indicates that the Short-Term Holder SOPR metric has fallen below 1, currently reading 0.95, signalling that many recent entrants are realising losses rather than profits.
CryptoQuant analyst XWIN Research Japan explained in a Quicktake post: “The primary sellers are short-term holders reacting to uncertainty, rather than long-term investors distributing structurally.”
Although the seven-day estimated moving average of short-term holder net realised losses has cooled to $500 million per day from a peak of $1.24 billion earlier this month, broader sentiment remains fragile.
Glassnode noted: “While the intensity has cooled, the broader regime still signals a market under pressure, with participants in the base formation phase continuing to capitulate.”
Further reinforcing this shift, the 90-day simple moving average of Bitcoin’s realised profit/loss ratio has dropped below 1, confirming what analysts describe as a full transition into an excess loss-realization regime.
Oversold RSI Points To Possible Reversal
Despite ongoing weakness, technical indicators suggest that Bitcoin may be approaching historically significant oversold territory that has previously preceded major recoveries.
The weekly relative strength index has fallen to 25.71, marking its lowest recorded level and surpassing extremes seen during the aftermath of the 3AC and Terra-Luna collapse.
Crypto analyst Nic Puckrin observed: “More downside is likely, but a bottom could be coming soon.”
Historically, comparable RSI readings have coincided with periods of acute short-term weakness followed by substantial medium- to long-term rebounds, suggesting that capitulation phases may lay the groundwork for renewed accumulation.
Additional sentiment gauges, including historically low fear and greed index readings and a decline in bullish forecasts for new all-time highs, indicate pervasive caution that some market participants interpret as a contrarian signal.
While volatility is likely to persist in the near term, the combination of extreme technical oversold conditions and diminishing realised losses suggests that Bitcoin may be entering a foundational phase preceding its next structural trend.
Hayden Adams, founder of the decentralized exchange Uniswap, has issued a fresh warning to users about fraudulent advertisements impersonating the platform, after reports emerged of a victim losing an entire cryptocurrency portfolio.
In a post on X, Adams said, “Scam ads keep returning despite years of reporting,” adding that “There were scam Uniswap apps while we waited months for App Store approval,” underscoring persistent challenges in combating online impersonation.
According to Adams, scammers are purchasing advertisements tied to keywords such as “Uniswap,” ensuring fake links appear prominently when users search for the decentralized exchange on popular search engines.
These deceptive links are designed to resemble official pages, encouraging unsuspecting users to connect their wallets and approve transactions, which ultimately enables attackers to drain digital assets completely.
A Costly Lesson Shared Publicly
The renewed warning follows a widely shared account from an X user known as “Ika,” who detailed how a crypto wallet valued in the mid-six-figure range was emptied despite what he described as disciplined security practices.
In a post titled “I lost everything, what’s next?” Ika reflected, “Disciplined for two years. Half-searching for a web3 job, half-hoping to make it fast enough not to need one,” describing the emotional and financial blow.
“I believe that getting drained isn’t bad luck. It’s the final consequence of a long chain of bad decisions,” Ika added, suggesting that incremental security oversights can culminate in devastating losses.
Shortly before publishing his lengthy account, Ika shared a screenshot appearing to show a top Google search result linking to an inauthentic Uniswap website, highlighting how convincingly fraudulent sites can mimic legitimate services.
Wider Trend Of Rising Crypto Losses
The incident comes during a period of elevated crypto-related theft, with January recording the highest amount stolen in scams and exploits in 11 months.
Security firm CertiK reported that cryptocurrency losses reached $370.3 million last month, representing a nearly fourfold increase compared with January 2025, and marking a sharp escalation in illicit activity.
Of the 40 reported exploit and scam incidents during the month, the majority of the total value lost stemmed from a single victim who reportedly forfeited around $284 million in a social engineering attack.
The combination of convincing phishing campaigns, paid search manipulation, and user complacency continues to create vulnerabilities within the decentralized finance ecosystem, even as platforms and community leaders repeatedly flag the dangers.
Adams’ latest comments reflect mounting frustration among crypto founders who must simultaneously innovate and defend their brands against increasingly sophisticated fraud operations exploiting user trust and search engine visibility.
U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $104.9 million in net outflows during Tuesday’s trading session, marking a weak start to the week for the sector.
Total trading volume dropped to just above $3 billion, representing a dramatic fall from the February 5 record of $14.7 billion and indicating cooling market participation.
The decline coincided with institutional disclosures of fourth-quarter holdings, revealing significant reallocations among major investment firms and hedge funds.
Market observers say the data suggests consolidation rather than panic selling, with investors adjusting positions following earlier strong inflows into crypto-linked products.
New Institutional Buyers Emerge
Jane Street ranked as the second-largest purchaser of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF in the fourth quarter, adding approximately $276 million worth of shares.
A previously unknown Hong Kong-based firm called Laurore also appeared in filings, acquiring $436.2 million of the ETF in a single reported purchase.
According to Bitwise adviser Jeff Park, the mysterious entity could represent early signs of Chinese institutional capital entering regulated Bitcoin markets.
Park noted the company lacks a public presence and identified the filer name Zhang Hui as extremely common, increasing speculation surrounding the investment’s origin.
Major Investors Adjust Exposure
Several funds increased allocations, including Weiss Asset Management and 59 North Capital, while Abu Dhabi sovereign investor Mubadala raised holdings by forty-five percent to roughly $630.7 million.
Conversely, Brevan Howard cut its exposure dramatically, reducing its position from about $2.4 billion to roughly $273.5 million during the same reporting period.
Goldman Sachs also trimmed its holdings by approximately forty percent, leaving close to $1 billion invested in the product after the adjustment.
Analysts interpret the mixed activity as portfolio rebalancing rather than loss of confidence, reflecting maturing institutional strategies around Bitcoin allocation.
Michael Saylor indicated that Strategy is preparing another Bitcoin purchase as the company maintains a remarkable twelve-week accumulation streak despite ongoing market volatility.
The signal arrived through the familiar acquisition chart posted on social media, a pattern investors now treat as advance notice of a new transaction.
The post suggested the firm is approaching its ninety-ninth Bitcoin acquisition since adopting its treasury strategy centered around the cryptocurrency.
Strategy last bought Bitcoin on Feb. 9, acquiring 1,142 coins for more than $90 million and bringing holdings to 714,644 BTC worth roughly $49.3 billion.
Buying Through The Downturn
The company has continued accumulating even after a severe market correction slashed Bitcoin prices by more than fifty percent from the previous record above $125,000.
That decline pushed the asset well below Strategy’s average acquisition cost of about $76,000 per coin, raising questions about risk exposure.
Analysts previously suggested the firm might pause or sell holdings during a prolonged downturn, but the ongoing purchases have contradicted those expectations.
Instead, management appears committed to long-term positioning regardless of short-term market conditions and volatility across the broader crypto sector.
Treasury Sector Under Pressure
The wider crypto treasury industry has struggled recently as valuations compressed and investor appetite weakened across listed companies holding large digital asset reserves.
A key metric, the multiple on net asset value, has dropped below one for several companies, indicating shares trade below the value of underlying assets.
Strategy’s own mNAV currently sits near 0.90, reducing financing flexibility compared with periods when shares traded at premium valuations.
Companies with higher ratios can issue stock more easily to purchase additional crypto, while lower ratios signal investor skepticism about future performance.
Financial Performance And Share Reaction
Earlier this month Strategy reported a fourth-quarter loss of $12.4 billion, which triggered a sharp selloff and pushed shares down roughly seventeen percent.
The stock has since recovered some ground and closed Friday at $133.88 as investors reassessed long-term exposure to Bitcoin price movements.
Despite accounting losses, the company continues treating Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset rather than a trading position influenced by short-term fluctuations.
Saylor’s latest signal therefore reinforces the firm’s consistent approach of buying through downturns in expectation of future appreciation.
Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest moved back into Coinbase Global shares at the end of the week after recently trimming exposure across several exchange-traded funds.
The asset manager accumulated stock across its flagship ARK Innovation, Next Generation Internet, and Fintech Innovation funds in a coordinated buying move.
ARK purchased 66,545 shares through ARKK, added 16,832 through ARKW, and picked up 9,477 more via ARKF according to daily trade disclosures released by the firm.
The combined transaction represented roughly $15 million in additional exposure to the cryptocurrency exchange operator.
Coinbase shares jumped sharply the same day, closing at $164.32 after rising about 16.4% before gaining modestly again in extended trading.
The rebound coincided with improving investor sentiment following recent volatility in digital asset markets and renewed interest in technology-linked equities.
Alongside Coinbase, ARK also increased its holdings in Roblox Corporation across the same group of funds as part of broader portfolio adjustments.
Reversal After Recent Reductions
The new accumulation came shortly after ARK reduced its Coinbase exposure earlier in February.
The firm sold around $17.4 million worth of shares on February 5, marking its first reduction of the year and its first since August 2025.
Another $22 million in Coinbase stock was sold the following day as the manager rotated funds toward the digital-asset platform Bullish.
Coinbase had previously weighed heavily on ARK performance during the fourth quarter of 2025 amid a wider cryptocurrency downturn.
During that period the exchange’s shares declined more sharply than both Bitcoin and Ether as market trading activity weakened.
The renewed buying suggests ARK views the recent sell-off as a valuation opportunity rather than a structural shift in the company’s prospects.
Earnings Pressure And Market Conditions
Coinbase recently reported a fourth-quarter net loss of $667 million, ending eight consecutive profitable quarters.
Earnings per share came in at 66 cents compared with expectations of 92 cents while net revenue fell 21.5% year-over-year to $1.78 billion.
Transaction revenue declined nearly 37% to $982.7 million, reflecting weaker trading volumes during a softer crypto market environment.
Subscription and services revenue, however, rose more than 13% to $727.4 million as recurring product demand partially offset trading weakness.
The company generated $420 million in transaction revenue early in the first quarter but warned subscription and services revenue could decline.
The mixed outlook highlights how sensitive crypto exchanges remain to broader digital asset sentiment cycles.
Bitcoin’s move below the $70,000 level is being interpreted very differently by long-term holders and institutional investors, according to Bitwise chief executive Hunter Horsley.
Contrasting Investor Reactions
“I think long-time holders are feeling unsure, and I think the new investor set, institutions are sort of getting a new crack at the apple,” Horsley said in an interview on Friday.
Horsley added that institutional buyers are “seeing prices they thought that they’d forever missed,” reflecting renewed interest after recent market weakness.
Only months earlier, expectations had been far more bullish, with predictions that Bitcoin would not revisit significantly lower levels.
Macro Pressures Weigh On Markets
Horsley acknowledged that Bitcoin’s recent decline has occurred during a period of increasing regulatory clarity and expanding institutional participation.
Bitcoin has fallen more than 22% over the past month, trading around $69,635 at the time of reporting, amid broad-based selling across liquid assets.
He described the current environment as a bear market, saying Bitcoin is “getting swept up” alongside other macro-sensitive investments.
“In the present moment, it is mostly trading with other liquid assets,” Horsley said.
Broader Asset Weakness
The pullback has not been limited to cryptocurrencies, with gold and silver also retreating sharply from recent highs amid tighter financial conditions.
These moves have reinforced the perception that investors are reducing exposure to risk and liquidity wherever possible.
Institutional Demand Remains Firm
Despite price volatility, Horsley stressed that institutional demand for Bitcoin remains strong, supported by consistent inflows into managed products.
He noted that Bitwise oversees more than $15 billion in institutional assets and recorded over $100 million in inflows on a single day during recent trading.
“There’s a lot of volume, and there are sellers and buyers,” Horsley said, pointing to active two-way participation in the market.
Retail curiosity has also surged, with online search interest spiking as prices revisited levels not seen since late 2024.
Tether has frozen more than half a billion dollars in cryptocurrency after receiving formal requests from Turkish law enforcement authorities investigating a large-scale illegal betting and money-laundering operation.
The move follows an announcement by prosecutors in Istanbul confirming the seizure of approximately €460 million in assets linked to Veysel Sahin, who is accused of running unlawful online gambling platforms.
While officials initially declined to identify the crypto issuer involved, Tether later confirmed it had blocked the funds tied to the investigation at the request of authorities.
Tether Confirms Cooperation With Law Enforcement
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said the company acted after reviewing information supplied by law enforcement agencies, stressing that compliance with local and international laws remains a core part of its operations.
“Law enforcement came to us, they provided some information, we looked at the information and we acted in respect of the laws of the country,” Ardoino reportedly said.
“And that’s what we do when we work with the DOJ, when we work with the FBI, you name it,” he added, highlighting the firm’s broader cooperation with regulators worldwide.
Growing Crackdown On Underground Finance
The Turkish investigation forms part of a wider effort to dismantle underground gambling and payment networks, with authorities reporting more than $1 billion in assets seized through related probes.
Analysts note that stablecoins are increasingly being scrutinised due to their use in cross-border transactions that can bypass traditional banking oversight mechanisms.
Stablecoin Blacklisting On The Rise
Blockchain analytics firm Elliptic has reported that stablecoin issuers, primarily Tether and Circle, had blacklisted roughly 5,700 wallets by late 2025.
Those frozen wallets were estimated to contain around $2.5 billion, with approximately three-quarters holding USDT at the time restrictions were imposed.
Tether has stated that it has assisted in more than 1,800 investigations across 62 countries, resulting in $3.4 billion in frozen USDT linked to alleged criminal activity.
Market Growth Continues Despite Scrutiny
Despite ongoing regulatory pressure, USDT continues to grow rapidly, reaching a record market capitalisation of $187.3 billion during the fourth quarter of 2025.
Network activity has also surged, with monthly active wallets climbing to nearly 25 million and quarterly transfer volumes hitting $4.4 trillion across billions of transactions.
Bitcoin has fallen more than 22.5% over the past week, dropping toward the $69,000 level and erasing gains accumulated over roughly fifteen months of upward price momentum.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt believes the decline reflects what he describes as “campaign selling,” suggesting large institutions are deliberately distributing holdings rather than retail investors panic selling positions.
Miners And ETFs Reduce Exposure As Selling Intensifies
Brandt observed that the price structure shows a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows, with little evidence of meaningful rebounds that would normally indicate dip-buying activity.
On-chain data supports this interpretation, with Bitcoin miners shifting into sustained net distribution throughout January as they sent increasing volumes of BTC onto the market.
At the same time, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have reduced their holdings, with total balances declining from 1.29 million BTC at the start of the year to around 1.27 million BTC.
The Coinbase premium, often used as a proxy for institutional interest, has also dropped to yearly lows, reinforcing the idea that large buyers are stepping back rather than stepping in.
Technical Signals Point Toward Additional Weakness
Based on Brandt’s analysis, Bitcoin could fall another 10% toward a bear flag target near $63,800 if current selling dynamics continue without interruption.
On-chain analyst GugaOnChain has identified a potential deeper downside zone between $54,600 and $55,000, aligned with Bitcoin’s realized price bands that historically mark structural undervaluation phases.
“The current price convergence toward the band signaling the start of the accumulation phase, situated around $54.6K, suggests we are in the critical transition between Capitulation and Accumulation.”
Historical data shows that when Bitcoin entered this zone in 2022 near $20,000, it eventually formed a long-term bottom before beginning a sustained recovery that carried prices above $30,000 the following year.
Another perspective suggests that broader macroeconomic factors, including credit spread movements, may delay a full accumulation phase until after mid-2026 based on past cycle patterns.