Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a drop below the $30,000 mark on July 18, surprising retail investors who had witnessed positive developments in the past month.
However, this downward movement does not indicate a shift in the long-term trend.
Despite the recent decline, there are positive signs to consider. Bitcoin is still making efforts to establish $30,000 as a support level, with numerous attempts since April.
Moreover, buyers consistently emerge within the $28,000 to $25,000 range, which seems to be viewed as an accumulation zone.
Glassnode’s Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score aligns with this sentiment, revealing that larger entities are accumulating BTC rather than distributing it.
The Accumulation Trend Score indicates that buyers were accumulating from November to December and continued to do so from March to April when Bitcoin surpassed $30,000.
The score suggests that the same accumulation behavior is occurring in July, possibly due to Bitcoin’s attempt to conquer the $30,000 resistance or the positive news surrounding ETFs and XRP SEC.
The current price action and derivatives market data indicate that Bitcoin is in a crab market, characterized by a range-bound price that consolidates for an extended period.
Breaking through the $32,000 level could trigger a CME gap fill from the Luna Terra-crash era.
On a weekly market structure basis, $30,000 serves as a crucial pivot point, previously functioning as support in the last bull market cycle and now as resistance.
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Surpassing this level would signify a higher high and confirm a trend reversal, with the next resistance point at approximately $37,000.
In the derivatives market, trading activity remains relatively muted, with funding down and open interest not displaying significant surges.
This suggests that a substantial breakout is yet to occur. While the recent dip in the DXY (U.S. Dollar Currency Index) may have influenced investor sentiment, it is unlikely to trigger an immediate massive reaction in Bitcoin.
Although short-term price fluctuations may concern new investors and day-traders, the on-chain perspective presents a compelling outlook.
The Total Balance in Accumulation Addresses metric has been on an uptrend since March 16, indicating that investors continue to increase their allocation to Bitcoin, even throughout the crypto market collapse and price sell-off.
It is worth noting that the metric also reveals a continuous increase in the total balance in accumulation addresses since January 2022, when Bitcoin was trading at $47,800 per coin.
This data highlights investors’ long-term confidence in Bitcoin and their ongoing accumulation of the cryptocurrency.
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