Social sentiment surrounding XRP has dropped sharply, falling into what analysts describe as the “fear zone,” a condition that has historically preceded notable price rebounds.
The shift in mood comes as the token continues to trade well below recent highs, despite signs of resilience from institutional investors.
Negative sentiment reaches extreme levels
Market intelligence firm Santiment said social media commentary around XRP has turned unusually pessimistic.
“XRP is seeing far more negative social media commentary than average,” the firm noted, adding that this increases the likelihood of a “strong price rebound.”
Historical data suggests similar sentiment extremes have coincided with rallies.
The last two instances of comparable fear occurred in late November and early December, when XRP went on to rally 22% and 11% respectively over the following days.
“Historically, this setup leads to price rises,” Santiment said.
“When retail has doubts about a coin’s ability to rise, the rise becomes significantly more likely.”
Price action remains under pressure
Despite the potential contrarian signal, XRP has struggled to regain upward momentum.
The token slipped nearly 2% over the past 24 hours, trading below $1.85.
That leaves XRP down almost 50% from its seven-year high of $3.66.
Still, several analysts argue the pullback does not necessarily signal deeper weakness.
“XRP sentiment is ugly again. But the money doesn’t look scared,” said analyst DefiPeniel, pointing to steady inflows into recently launched spot ETFs.
Institutional flows support long-term confidence
According to DefiPeniel, institutional participation paints a very different picture from retail sentiment.
“These investment products have seen a perfect streak of inflows since launch,” he said, noting that assets under management have climbed beyond $1.2 billion.
The contrast between muted price action and sustained capital inflows suggests longer-term confidence remains intact.
“Markets don’t bottom when vibes improve,” DefiPeniel added.
“They bottom when price holds and sentiment breaks.”
Key resistance levels dominate the chart
From a technical perspective, XRP faces several hurdles before a sustained recovery can take shape.
The price must first break above a multi-month descending trendline near $1.92 and hold it as support.
Beyond that, heavy resistance lies between $1.96 and $2.00, an area where investors accumulated roughly $1.5 billion worth of XRP.
A daily close above $2 would open the path toward a move into the $2.10 to $2.50 range.
That zone contains multiple major moving averages, including the 50-day SMA, 50-week EMA and 50-week SMA.
Downtrend risks remain
Not all analysts are convinced a turnaround is imminent.
XRP remains “still in a strong downtrend,” according to trader C3_trading.
The analyst noted repeated rejections between $2.50 and $2.70 and said a decisive breakout is needed to change the broader trend.
“Wait for a breakout above $2.50 for trend shift, otherwise expect continuation lower,” he said.
On the downside, a failure to hold above $1.80 could expose XRP to a retest of $1.75 and potentially the April low near $1.61.
A break below that level would significantly raise the risk of a deeper slide toward $1.25 and even $1.00 in 2026.
