The global M2 money supply’s expansion is emerging as a potential catalyst for a significant Bitcoin rally. Analysts are observing this trend closely, though they advise caution against overcommitting based on this single indicator.
Correlation Between Money Supply and Bitcoin’s Trajectory
Pav Hundal, lead analyst at Australian cryptocurrency exchange Swyftx, discussed the implications of the increasing M2 money supply on Bitcoin’s prospects. He noted, “In normal times, global loosening measures are a pretty reliable lead indicator for crypto.”
Hundal emphasized that current data indicates active spot buyers and highlighted the U.S. government’s recent decision to raise its debt ceiling by $4 trillion as a significant factor.
The year-on-year fixed exchange rate for the M2 money supply of the four major central banks reached 3.65% in January, according to MacroMicro data. Historically, an increase in the global M2 money supply has been associated with higher Bitcoin prices, driven by enhanced liquidity and reduced interest rates.
Analysts’ Perspectives on Potential Bitcoin Surge
Economist Lyn Alden has previously identified a strong correlation between global M2 money supply growth and Bitcoin’s price movements, noting that Bitcoin aligns with global M2 trends approximately 83% of the time.
Investment research entity Bravo Research highlighted that the U.S. money supply has doubled over the past decade, suggesting that this liquidity surge could fuel a parabolic rise in Bitcoin’s value.
Summary
- The global M2 money supply is expanding, a trend historically linked to Bitcoin price surges.
- Analysts warn against over-reliance on M2 growth but acknowledge its potential impact on Bitcoin.
- Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal notes that liquidity expansion often benefits crypto markets.
- The U.S. debt ceiling increase by $4 trillion is seen as a contributing factor to rising liquidity.
- The year-on-year M2 growth rate reached 3.65% in January, suggesting increased market liquidity.
- Economist Lyn Alden found Bitcoin follows M2 money supply trends 83% of the time.
- Research firm Bravo Research highlights that U.S. money supply has doubled in a decade, potentially fueling Bitcoin’s next rally.
- While bullish sentiment grows, some experts caution that other macroeconomic factors must be considered before predicting a parabolic rise.
In a significant market movement, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced their largest-ever daily net outflows, totaling $937.9 million on February 25. This marked the sixth consecutive trading day of outflows, coinciding with Bitcoin’s price dipping below the $90,000 threshold.
ETF Exodus Amidst Bitcoin Price Decline
The substantial outflows from these ETFs occurred as Bitcoin’s value decreased by 3.4% over the previous day, reaching a 24-hour low of $86,140 from an intraday high exceeding $92,000. Leading the outflows was the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), which saw a record-setting withdrawal of $344.7 million. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) followed with an outflow of $164.4 million.
Other notable outflows included $88.3 million from the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) and a combined $151.9 million from Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF (BTC).
Cumulatively, these 11 Bitcoin funds have experienced over $2.4 billion in net outflows throughout February, with only four days recording net inflows.
Industry Perspectives on the Outflows
Nate Geraci, President of the ETF Store, expressed his astonishment at the traditional financial sector’s aversion to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. In a February 26 post on X (formerly Twitter), he remarked, “Still amazed at how much TradFi hates Bitcoin and crypto. Huge victory laps at every downturn. Hate to break it to you, but no matter how big drawdowns are, it’s not going away.”
Analysts such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and 10x Research’s head of research, Markus Thielen, suggest that the majority of Bitcoin ETF investors are hedge funds engaging in arbitrage strategies rather than long-term holders.
Hayes predicted on February 24 that Bitcoin’s price could decline to $70,000 due to continued ETF outflows. He explained that many IBIT holders are hedge funds that went long on ETFs while shorting CME futures to earn yields higher than short-term U.S. Treasurys. As these yields diminish alongside Bitcoin’s price, these funds may unwind their positions, impacting the market further.
Thielen’s research indicates that over half of spot Bitcoin ETF investors are involved in arbitrage, selling ETFs while buying Bitcoin futures to maintain a market-neutral stance. This strategy effectively offsets any directional market impact, suggesting that the outflows may not directly correlate with a long-term bearish outlook for Bitcoin.
Summary
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw their largest-ever daily net outflows of $937.9 million on February 25.
- This marked six consecutive days of outflows, with Bitcoin’s price dropping below $90,000.The Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) led the withdrawals with $344.7 million in outflows.
- Other major funds, including BlackRock’s IBIT and Grayscale’s GBTC, also experienced significant withdrawals.
- Over $2.4 billion in net outflows have been recorded across 11 Bitcoin ETFs in February.
- Analysts believe hedge funds engaging in arbitrage strategies are behind these outflows rather than long-term holders.
- Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin could drop to $70,000 due to continued ETF outflows.
- Market sentiment remains cautious, but some experts argue this trend does not indicate a long-term bearish outlook.
Bitcoin’s price has taken a sharp hit, falling to a multi-month low as broader market uncertainties weigh on investor sentiment. The decline comes amid widespread crypto liquidations and growing concerns over potential tariffs affecting the global financial landscape.
Bitcoin’s Price Decline and Liquidation Wave
Bitcoin dropped below the $90,000 mark, marking one of its steepest declines in recent months. The sell-off triggered a wave of liquidations across the crypto derivatives market, with over $500 million worth of leveraged positions wiped out in a single day.
Analysts attribute the decline to a combination of macroeconomic uncertainty, profit-taking by institutional investors, and technical factors influencing market sentiment.
One trader commented, “Bitcoin’s recent price action suggests a shift in market momentum, with increased selling pressure from large holders contributing to the downside.”
Global Tariff Concerns and Their Impact on Crypto Markets
Another key factor driving Bitcoin’s downturn is the growing uncertainty surrounding global trade policies. Reports of potential new tariffs on technology and financial products have raised fears of economic slowdowns, impacting investor confidence across multiple asset classes.
If global trade tensions escalate, risk assets like Bitcoin could face further downward pressure as investors seek safer alternatives.
Broader Crypto Market Reactions
Bitcoin’s decline also affected the wider cryptocurrency market, with major altcoins experiencing significant losses. Ethereum, Solana, and other top assets fell by 5-10% within the same timeframe, mirroring Bitcoin’s downward trend.
The sudden market correction highlights the volatility of the crypto sector, particularly during periods of macroeconomic uncertainty.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
Despite the recent downturn, some analysts believe that Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals remain strong. Institutional adoption, regulatory developments, and ongoing advancements in blockchain technology continue to support the case for Bitcoin as a long-term asset.
However, in the short term, traders remain cautious, closely watching key support levels and market trends to determine whether Bitcoin can stabilize or faces further downside risk.
A group of Ohio lawmakers has introduced a new bill aimed at eliminating taxes on digital asset payments, positioning the state as a potential leader in cryptocurrency adoption.
The proposed legislation, if passed, would ensure that Ohio residents and businesses can transact in digital currencies without facing additional tax burdens.
Details of the Proposed Bill
The bill, introduced by a bipartisan group of legislators, seeks to amend the state’s tax code to exempt digital asset transactions from sales and capital gains taxes. Lawmakers argue that such a measure would encourage the use of cryptocurrencies for everyday transactions, fostering innovation and investment in the state’s digital economy.
Under the proposal, Ohio would become one of the few jurisdictions in the United States to offer tax-free cryptocurrency transactions. This move could attract businesses looking to integrate blockchain-based payment systems while providing financial incentives for individuals to adopt digital currencies.
Motivation Behind the Tax Exemption
Supporters of the bill believe that digital assets should be treated similarly to cash transactions rather than taxable commodities. They argue that imposing taxes on crypto payments discourages mainstream adoption and creates unnecessary complexity for users.
One of the lawmakers backing the bill stated, “By eliminating taxes on digital asset payments, Ohio has the opportunity to establish itself as a leader in the blockchain economy and attract new businesses to the state.”
Additionally, proponents highlight the need for regulatory clarity, arguing that crypto transactions are often subject to conflicting tax treatments across different jurisdictions. A tax-free environment, they claim, would simplify compliance for businesses and individuals alike.
Challenges and Opposition
While the bill has garnered support from crypto enthusiasts and blockchain startups, it faces opposition from policymakers concerned about potential revenue losses. Critics argue that tax exemptions for digital assets could reduce state income and create loopholes for tax avoidance.
Another concern is the federal government’s stance on cryptocurrency taxation. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) classifies digital assets as property, making them subject to capital gains taxes at the national level. If Ohio moves forward with its bill, it could face legal challenges or require additional legislative coordination at the federal level.
Potential Impact on the Crypto Industry
If passed, the legislation could set a precedent for other states to follow, potentially leading to wider adoption of cryptocurrency-friendly tax policies. Blockchain advocates see this as a crucial step in making crypto transactions more viable for everyday purchases, from coffee shops to online retail.
As lawmakers continue debating the bill, the outcome will be closely watched by the broader crypto community, particularly as states across the U.S. explore ways to regulate and integrate digital assets into their economies.
Dubai is considering new regulations that would require cryptocurrency whales to disclose their identities. This move is part of an effort to enhance financial transparency and prevent market manipulation within the digital asset sector.
Why Dubai Wants Crypto Whales to Reveal Themselves
Dubai’s financial regulators are increasingly concerned about the influence of major digital asset holders on market volatility. Crypto whales—individuals or entities holding significant amounts of cryptocurrency—can dramatically impact market prices with large buy or sell orders.
Authorities fear that these entities could engage in practices such as pump-and-dump schemes, leading to artificial price inflation followed by sharp declines that harm retail investors.
By requiring identity disclosure, regulators aim to introduce more accountability into the crypto sector, reducing the potential for market manipulation and illicit financial activities.
Proposed Regulatory Measures
The proposed regulations would likely mandate that any entity holding more than a certain threshold of digital assets—possibly $10 million or more—must disclose their holdings and identity. The information would be reported to Dubai’s financial authorities, ensuring that large-scale crypto transactions are subject to greater oversight.
Additionally, crypto exchanges operating in Dubai may be required to enforce stricter Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) policies to monitor whale transactions effectively.
Market Reactions and Concerns
While some industry leaders welcome the move as a step toward legitimacy, others argue that forced disclosure could deter institutional investors from operating in Dubai’s crypto market. Privacy advocates also raise concerns, arguing that anonymity is a core principle of cryptocurrency.
However, regulators believe that balancing transparency with investor privacy will help solidify Dubai’s reputation as a global hub for regulated crypto activities.
Future Implications for the Crypto Industry
If Dubai proceeds with these regulations, it could set a precedent for other jurisdictions to follow. Similar measures may be adopted by global financial hubs looking to enhance oversight in the crypto space.
Ultimately, Dubai’s push for transparency is another sign that governments worldwide are moving toward stricter crypto regulations, ensuring that digital assets are integrated into the mainstream financial system responsibly.
In a landmark legal development, Aux Cayes FinTech Co., the operator behind the prominent cryptocurrency exchange OKX, has admitted to violating U.S. anti-money laundering (AML) regulations. This admission culminates in a substantial financial settlement exceeding $500 million, underscoring the intensifying regulatory scrutiny within the digital asset sector.
Admission of Operating Without Proper Licensing
On February 24, 2025, during proceedings in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, Aux Cayes FinTech Co., based in Seychelles, conceded to operating an unlicensed money transmitting business.
This plea highlights the company’s acknowledgment of its failure to secure the necessary licenses to facilitate financial transactions within the United States. Judge Katherine Polk Failla presided over the case, emphasizing the gravity of the company’s non-compliance with established financial regulations.
Financial Penalties and Forfeitures
The resolution of this case imposes a dual financial obligation on Aux Cayes FinTech Co.:
- Monetary Fine: The company is required to pay an $84.4 million fine, reflecting the severity of its regulatory breaches.
- Asset Forfeiture: An additional forfeiture of $420.3 million has been mandated, representing profits derived from the unlicensed operations.
Collectively, these financial penalties amount to nearly $505 million, marking one of the most significant settlements in the cryptocurrency industry’s regulatory history.
Circumvention of U.S. User Restrictions
Despite having policies in place to prevent U.S. residents from accessing its platform, OKX reportedly facilitated transactions for American users between 2018 and early 2024. Prosecutors revealed that the platform processed over $5 billion in suspicious transactions during this period.
Alarmingly, internal communications suggest that OKX employees may have actively assisted U.S. customers in bypassing geographical restrictions. One such instance involved an employee advising a user to falsely claim residence in the United Arab Emirates and to provide fabricated identification details.
U.S. Market Engagement and Promotional Activities
In addition to facilitating unauthorized transactions, OKX engaged in promotional activities within the United States. Notably, the company sponsored high-profile events, such as the Tribeca Film Festival in Manhattan, aiming to bolster its brand presence among U.S. audiences. These marketing endeavors occurred concurrently with the platform’s unlicensed operations, further complicating its legal standing.
Commitment to Enhanced Compliance Measures
As part of the plea agreement, Aux Cayes FinTech Co. has committed to strengthening its compliance infrastructure. The company has agreed to retain an external compliance consultant through February 2027. This consultant will oversee the implementation of robust AML protocols, ensuring adherence to both U.S. and international financial regulations. This proactive measure aims to prevent future infractions and to rebuild trust with regulatory bodies and users alike.
Company’s Response and Future Outlook
In an official statement, Aux Cayes FinTech Co. acknowledged the misconduct, attributing it to “legacy compliance gaps.” The company emphasized that U.S. customers constituted a minor segment of its global user base and confirmed that it has ceased offering services to U.S. residents. This acknowledgment signifies the company’s intent to rectify past oversights and to align its operations with global regulatory standards moving forward.
Implications for the Cryptocurrency Industry
This case serves as a pivotal reminder of the imperative for cryptocurrency exchanges to operate within the bounds of regulatory frameworks.
The substantial financial penalties levied against Aux Cayes FinTech Co. highlight the potential repercussions of non-compliance. As the digital asset landscape continues to evolve, exchanges are increasingly expected to implement rigorous compliance measures, ensuring transparency and accountability in their operations.
U.S. Senator Dick Durbin has introduced the Crypto ATM Fraud Prevention Act, aiming to address the rising incidents of fraud associated with cryptocurrency ATMs. This legislative move seeks to implement protective measures for consumers, particularly senior citizens, who are often targeted by scammers exploiting these machines.
Motivation Behind the Bill
Senator Durbin highlighted a case where a constituent was defrauded of $15,000 by a scammer posing as a law enforcement official. The fraudster convinced the victim to deposit funds into a crypto ATM to avoid fictitious legal consequences. Such incidents have become increasingly common, prompting the need for regulatory intervention.
Key Provisions
The proposed legislation mandates that crypto ATM operators:
- Display clear warnings about potential scams to inform users.
- Implement measures to detect and prevent fraudulent activities at their machines.
- Impose transaction limits for new users, restricting deposits to $2,000 per day and a total of $10,000 within the initial two weeks.
- Provide full refunds to victims under specific conditions to mitigate financial losses.
These provisions aim to create “common sense guardrails” to protect consumers from falling prey to scams facilitated through crypto ATMs.
Industry Response and Future Outlook
While the bill focuses on consumer protection, it also seeks to equip law enforcement with tools to trace and combat crypto-related fraud. The effectiveness of this legislation will depend on its enforcement and the cooperation of crypto ATM operators. As the bill progresses through Congress, its reception by industry stakeholders and lawmakers will be pivotal in shaping its final form and impact.
Shares of Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, have experienced a 16% decline year-to-date, closely mirroring Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent downward trend. On February 25, Bitcoin’s price fell approximately 4% to around $88,000, intensifying concerns about the sustainability of Strategy’s aggressive Bitcoin acquisition strategy.
Market analysis firm The Kobeissi Letter highlighted that the company’s approach heavily relies on its capacity to raise additional capital backed by its expanding Bitcoin holdings. They cautioned, “In a situation where their liabilities rise significantly higher than their assets, this ability could deteriorate.”
Analysts Maintain Optimism
Despite the recent stock downturn, financial analysts remain optimistic about Strategy’s future. On February 6, Benchmark analysts raised the company’s price target to $650, expressing confidence in Strategy’s continued aggressive capital raising to support its Bitcoin acquisition plans throughout the year.
This positive outlook is rooted in the company’s strategy to generate “Bitcoin yield,” focusing on the ratio of Bitcoin holdings to outstanding shares. Strategy aims for a Bitcoin yield of 15% in 2025, suggesting a robust financial performance linked to its cryptocurrency assets.
Debt-Fueled Bitcoin Purchases
Since 2020, Strategy has invested over $33 billion in Bitcoin, acquiring the cryptocurrency at an average cost of approximately $66,000 per coin. This aggressive acquisition strategy has been financed through a combination of stock issuance and approximately $9.5 billion in convertible debt. Notably, the majority of this debt does not mature until 2027 or later, reducing the immediate risk of a Bitcoin price downturn necessitating the liquidation of holdings. The Kobeissi Letter emphasized that for such a scenario to force liquidation, Bitcoin’s price would need to fall by more than 50% from current levels and remain depressed beyond 2027.
Stock Performance and Market Outlook
On February 25, Bitcoin’s price dipped below the $90,000 threshold for the first time since November 2024, coinciding with sell-offs in U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Consequently, Strategy’s shares dropped over 10% to approximately $245. This marks a significant decline from its all-time high of $473 in November, shortly after the company announced its ambitious goal to acquire $42 billion worth of Bitcoin by 2027. Other companies with similar Bitcoin treasury strategies, such as Semler Scientific, have also experienced comparable stock retracements, with Semler down more than 20% year-to-date.
Despite these challenges, Benchmark analysts remain confident in Strategy’s ability to generate “Bitcoin yield,” viewing the BTC-per-share metric as a key indicator of the company’s financial health. This focus suggests that, while market volatility presents risks, Strategy’s long-term approach to integrating Bitcoin into its corporate treasury may offer substantial returns, provided the cryptocurrency’s value appreciates over time.
The cryptocurrency market has recently exhibited signs of weakness, prompting analysts to adjust their forecasts for Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Amidst this cautious sentiment, a new price target of $86,000 has emerged, reflecting the current market dynamics and investor behavior.
Recent Market Performance
Bitcoin has experienced a notable decline from its peak of $108,309 on December 17, 2024, trading between $93,000 and $100,000 in recent sessions. This downward movement has raised concerns about the sustainability of the previous bullish trend and the potential for further corrections.
Technical Indicators Signal Potential Downside
Technical analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s recent price action has breached critical support levels, indicating a possible continuation of the downward trend. The next significant support is identified at $91,500. A decisive break below this level could open the path toward the $86,000 target, representing a substantial retracement from recent highs.
On the other hand, if Bitcoin can sustain itself above the $91,500 threshold, it may have a chance to recover and attempt a retest of the $100,000 resistance zone. However, for bullish momentum to return, it would need to establish strong support above this level.
On-Chain Analysis Reflects Reduced Activity
On-chain metrics reveal a decline in network activity, with reduced transaction volumes and active addresses. This decrease suggests waning user engagement and may contribute to the selling pressure observed in the market. Such trends often precede further price declines as demand diminishes.
Additionally, Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have slightly increased, indicating that some investors may be preparing to sell rather than hold. When exchange inflows rise, it often signals a shift toward short-term profit-taking or risk-off sentiment among traders.
Macroeconomic Factors Influence Investor Sentiment
Broader economic conditions, including concerns over inflation and monetary policy adjustments, have contributed to increased uncertainty in financial markets. These factors have led investors to reassess their risk exposure, impacting assets like Bitcoin that are often viewed as speculative investments.
Geopolitical tensions and regulatory uncertainties have also weighed on investor confidence. Recent developments in China and the United States regarding cryptocurrency regulations have caused market participants to exercise caution, limiting the influx of new capital into the market.
Historical Context and Future Projections
Historically, Bitcoin has experienced cyclical patterns of rapid appreciation followed by corrections. The current market behavior appears to align with these historical trends, suggesting that the recent weakness may be a natural part of Bitcoin’s long-term price movements.
Many analysts believe that if Bitcoin does drop to $86,000, it could present a buying opportunity for long-term investors. Institutional interest in Bitcoin remains strong, and any significant pullback could encourage accumulation before the next potential leg up in price.
Conclusion
The current market weakness has raised concerns about Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory, with analysts setting an $86,000 price target as a potential bottom if selling pressure intensifies. However, whether Bitcoin reaches this level depends on key technical support holding firm and broader macroeconomic conditions stabilizing.
For now, traders and investors should remain cautious while monitoring critical support levels and market sentiment. Despite short-term uncertainty, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains optimistic, particularly with continued institutional interest and the upcoming impact of Bitcoin’s next halving cycle.
Wintermute, a leading crypto market maker, has withdrawn $38 million worth of Solana (SOL) from Binance, sparking speculation about its strategy ahead of a major $2 billion Solana token unlock. The move has caught the attention of market analysts, with some suggesting that it could be a sign of anticipated price volatility.
Massive Token Unlock Raises Questions
Solana’s upcoming token unlock event is one of the largest in recent memory, with over $2 billion worth of SOL set to be released into the market. Token unlocks can significantly impact asset prices, often leading to increased supply and downward pressure on value.
Given the scale of this event, Wintermute’s decision to withdraw a large quantity of SOL from Binance has raised questions about whether it anticipates a price surge or is positioning itself to manage liquidity as volatility increases.
Potential Market Impact of the Unlock Event
Large token unlocks can have varied effects on the market. In some cases, they lead to a sell-off as early investors or project teams liquidate their holdings. However, if market demand is strong, the additional supply can be absorbed without significantly affecting prices.
Solana has been one of the best-performing cryptocurrencies in recent months, rebounding from its 2022 lows and reclaiming a strong position in the market. Investors are now closely watching whether the upcoming unlock will be met with buying interest or lead to a short-term correction.
Wintermute’s Role in Market Liquidity
As a market maker, Wintermute plays a crucial role in maintaining liquidity and facilitating trading across exchanges. Its decision to move SOL off Binance could indicate preparations for increased trading activity or plans to deploy liquidity in decentralized finance (DeFi) applications.
Historically, market makers have used large-scale token unlocks as opportunities to profit from price movements, whether through short-term trading strategies or arbitrage across different platforms.
Broader Implications for Solana’s Ecosystem
The Solana ecosystem has been growing rapidly, with a surge in decentralized applications (dApps), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and DeFi platforms utilizing its blockchain. While the token unlock represents a potential challenge in terms of market dynamics, strong adoption and institutional interest in Solana could help mitigate any negative effects.
Some analysts believe that if Solana can maintain its momentum despite the unlock, it could reinforce confidence in its long-term growth. Others caution that if selling pressure intensifies, the asset could face short-term volatility before finding a new price equilibrium.
Conclusion
Wintermute’s withdrawal of $38 million in SOL ahead of the $2 billion unlock has added an extra layer of uncertainty to an already significant event for Solana. While token unlocks often lead to increased supply and volatility, Solana’s strong fundamentals and market positioning could help counteract potential selling pressure.
Investors will be closely monitoring how the market reacts to the unlock event and whether demand remains strong enough to absorb the new supply. As one of the most-watched cryptocurrencies in the market, Solana’s price action in the coming days could provide valuable insights into broader market sentiment.