Bitcoin

Bitcoin demand growth has slowed sharply since October 2025, raising concerns that the market has entered another bearish phase.

According to analysts at CryptoQuant, the slowdown reflects a broader shift in investor behavior following multiple demand surges earlier in the cycle.

CryptoQuant analysts said Bitcoin demand unfolded in three distinct waves during the current market cycle.

The first wave emerged in January 2024 following the launch of US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

The second wave followed the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election.

The third wave was driven by what analysts described as a Bitcoin treasury company bubble.

Demand Growth Falls Below Trend

CryptoQuant warned that demand growth has now dropped below its long-term trend.

“Demand growth has fallen below trend since early October 2025. This indicates that the bulk of this cycle’s incremental demand has already been realized, removing a key pillar of price support.”

The decline has been particularly visible in the final quarter of 2025.

Apparent Bitcoin demand fell during the period, signaling weaker accumulation across the market.

Institutional participation has also shown signs of contraction.

CryptoQuant noted that Bitcoin held in ETFs declined by approximately 24,000 BTC in the fourth quarter of 2025.

This behavior marked a sharp contrast to the aggressive accumulation seen during the same period in 2024.

Derivatives and Technical Signals Turn Bearish

Additional indicators from derivatives markets are reinforcing the bearish narrative.

Funding rates for perpetual futures have dropped to their lowest levels since December 2023.

Lower funding rates suggest reduced appetite for leveraged long positions among traders.

Technical analysis has also deteriorated.

Bitcoin has broken below its 365-day moving average, a level widely viewed as a critical long-term support.

The cryptocurrency continues to trade well under that threshold, which currently sits near $98,172.

CryptoQuant analysts said this breakdown further supports the view that Bitcoin has entered a bear market phase.

Hope for 2026 Amid Persistent Market Fear

Despite the bearish indicators, not all analysts share a pessimistic long-term outlook.

Some continue to forecast stronger Bitcoin prices in 2026, citing potential interest rate cuts and renewed demand.

Lower interest rates are typically seen as favorable for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

However, broader sentiment remains subdued.

According to the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, overall market sentiment is firmly in fear territory.

Expectations for near-term monetary easing also remain limited.

Only 22.1% of investors expect the Federal Open Market Committee to cut rates at its January meeting.

Political pressure has added another layer of uncertainty.

US President Donald Trump attempted to pressure Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates during 2025.

Powell’s term is set to expire in May 2026, and potential successors are reportedly being reviewed.

Market participants are watching closely for signs that policy shifts could alter Bitcoin’s trajectory in the years ahead.

Bitcoin is under pressure as macro analysts warn that an expected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan on December 19 could trigger a deeper correction toward the 70,000 dollar level.

Several analysts say past market reactions suggest Bitcoin is vulnerable when Japanese monetary policy tightens.

The core concern centers on liquidity.

When the Bank of Japan raises rates, global borrowing costs increase, the yen strengthens and carry trades unwind.

This combination has historically weighed on risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Previous BOJ Hikes Triggered Steep Market Pullbacks

Data from analyst AndrewBTC shows that every BOJ rate hike since 2024 coincided with significant declines in Bitcoin.

The asset fell by around 23% in March 2024, 26% in July 2024 and 31% in January 2025 following policy tightening announcements.

The analyst argues that similar conditions are emerging again as the central bank signals another interest rate increase.

Economists in a recent survey overwhelmingly expect the BOJ to move ahead with tightening this month.

The dynamics behind these declines stem from Japan’s role in global liquidity flows.

When Japanese rates rise, borrowing becomes more expensive and leveraged investors often unwind positions built on cheap yen financing.

Such periods generally trigger risk-off sentiment across global markets.

Bitcoin, widely held through leverage across derivatives platforms, tends to be sensitive to liquidity shocks.

Analyst EX said BTC will “dump below $70,000” if macro conditions develop as expected.

His outlook aligns with others who see Bitcoin’s recent weakness as part of a broader liquidity-driven repricing.

Technical Signals Also Point Toward a $70,000 Target

Chart analysts note that Bitcoin is currently trading inside a bear flag pattern.

The structure formed after Bitcoin’s sharp drop from the 105,000 to 110,000 dollar zone earlier in the year, followed by a narrow upward drift.

Bear flags usually indicate a pause before the prevailing downtrend continues.

A breakdown below the lower trendline could push Bitcoin toward the 70,000 to 72,500 dollar region.

Multiple analysts, including James Check and Sellén, have outlined similar targets over the past month.

They argue that technical and macro factors are overlapping at a time when liquidity is tightening worldwide.

The convergence of patterns has made traders increasingly cautious.

Many see the coming BOJ decision as a potential trigger for a sharp move.

Bitcoin’s Short-Term Outlook Remains Fragile

Analysts say market sentiment has weakened significantly since Bitcoin failed to reclaim the 105,000 dollar level earlier in the year.

Each rebound attempt has met strong selling pressure.

With liquidity thinning and macro uncertainty rising, traders are watching whether Bitcoin can hold current support levels.

A decisive break could open the door to deeper retracement.

For now, the dominant view is that Bitcoin is exposed if the BOJ raises rates again.

Japan’s monetary decisions have become an unusually important driver for global risk assets.

Bitcoin’s path will depend on whether macro tightening continues and whether buyers return with enough strength to absorb the next wave of selling.

Until then, analysts see elevated downside risk and limited signs of bullish momentum.

Binance has expanded its support for World Liberty Financial’s USD1 stablecoin, introducing new fee-free trading pairs and preparing for a major shift in the composition of its collateral reserves.

The exchange announced that USD1 trading pairs will now be available for Ether, Solana, and BNB, in addition to the Bitcoin pair already offered.

The move significantly widens the stablecoin’s presence on the platform and presents it as a more central asset within Binance’s ecosystem.

In tandem with the new listings, Binance said it will convert all collateral assets backing its previous stablecoin, BUSD, into USD1 on a one-to-one basis within a week.

The exchange described the transition as a critical milestone, stating that “USD1 will become an integral part of Binance’s updated collateral structure, further embedding the stablecoin within the exchange’s ecosystem.”

Growing Utility for USD1

Zach Witkoff, co-founder and CEO of World Liberty Financial, welcomed Binance’s decision, describing it as a major step in expanding global access to the asset.

He said, “Binance’s expansion of USD1 marks an important moment in WLFI’s effort to make digital US dollar stablecoins available to people everywhere.”

USD1 launched earlier this year on Ethereum and BNB Chain, backed by U.S. Treasury bills and designed to serve as a fully collateralized onchain dollar.

Its market capitalization has grown to $2.7 billion, placing it among the top stablecoins globally.

Demand was boosted significantly in May after Abu Dhabi investment firm MGX used USD1 for a $2 billion investment into Binance.

Despite the recent momentum, USD1’s circulating supply has declined slightly from its October peak of $3 billion.

The reduction stems from a lack of new issuance in recent months, according to market data.

Political and Corporate Ties Shape USD1’s Public Profile

USD1 has attracted attention far beyond the crypto industry because of its political connections.

President Donald Trump, alongside his sons, is a co-founder of World Liberty Financial.

That association drew renewed scrutiny after Trump issued a presidential pardon for Binance founder Changpeng Zhao seven weeks ago.

Zhao had been sentenced to four months in prison in April 2024 after pleading guilty to failing to implement an adequate anti-money-laundering program at Binance.

Trump commented that he granted the pardon following widespread appeals, stating that “a lot of people” urged him to reconsider Zhao’s conviction and insisted that “what he did is not even a crime.”

A Stablecoin Positioned for Larger Influence

As Binance integrates USD1 more deeply into its trading ecosystem, the stablecoin is poised to play a larger role in the platform’s liquidity and collateral systems.

The decision to replace BUSD’s collateral with USD1 underscores Binance’s broader shift away from internally issued stablecoins toward assets backed by external entities.

For World Liberty Financial, the exchange’s support accelerates its ambition to establish USD1 as a dominant global stablecoin, particularly in regions with growing demand for blockchain-based dollar instruments.

With political involvement, institutional backing, and expanding exchange support, USD1 now sits at the intersection of finance, crypto, and public policy.

As Binance and World Liberty Financial continue pushing forward, the stablecoin’s evolution is likely to remain one of the sector’s most closely watched developments.

A group of Republican lawmakers is voicing frustration after the U.S. House approved a major defense spending package that excluded a long-promised ban on central bank digital currencies.

The latest vote on the National Defense Authorization Act sparked renewed tension within the GOP, with several members saying leadership failed to honor commitments made earlier this year.

Representative Keith Self was among the first to speak out, posting online that “Conservatives were promised — explicitly — that strong anti-Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) language would be included in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). That promise was broken.”

His criticism came shortly after the House passed the nearly $900 billion defense bill in a bipartisan 312–112 vote, sending the massive package to the Senate.

Lawmakers are attempting to finalize the legislation before the end of the year, adding urgency to a process that typically becomes a vehicle for a wide range of federal policy issues.

Republicans Say They Were Assured the CBDC Ban Was Secure

Self had introduced an amendment earlier in the week to restore the CBDC ban after it was stripped from the final version.

However, the amendment did not make it out of the Rules Committee and was never brought to the House floor for a vote.

The Texas congressman said several Republicans were “assured that anti-CBDC language would be included. Instead, we have been forced into a take-it-or-leave-it bill that breaks that promise. Without that language, I’m inclined to leave it.”

The NDAA, a sprawling piece of legislation exceeding 3,000 pages, is widely considered must-pass.

Because of this status, it frequently attracts non-defense provisions that might otherwise face lengthy delays or more intense scrutiny when considered on their own.

Long-Running Internal Battles Over Crypto Policy

The dispute over CBDCs has been brewing since the summer, when House Republican leaders negotiated with party hardliners who refused to advance three crypto-related bills unless the NDAA included an explicit ban on a Federal Reserve digital currency.

That standoff halted House business for hours during a record-long procedural vote, with the blockade tied to legislation such as the GENIUS Act, a bill regulating stablecoins.

The bill had drawn pressure from former President Donald Trump, who pushed GOP leaders to move quickly on the crypto regulatory package.

The deal reached in July appeared to settle the conflict, but the CBDC ban ultimately vanished during committee markups and internal revisions.

Greene and Other Conservatives Criticize Leadership

Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene also condemned the absence of the CBDC prohibition, saying Speaker Mike Johnson failed to deliver on commitments to conservative members.

Greene said she supports digital assets but “will never support giving the government the ability to turn off your ability to have full control of your money and to buy and sell.”

Early drafts of the NDAA circulated in August contained phrasing that would have barred the Federal Reserve from testing, researching, developing, or issuing any type of digital currency.

The language would also have blocked the central bank from providing financial services directly to individuals, a concept critics equate with government overreach.

What Comes Next for CBDC Legislation

Even before the NDAA fight, the House had narrowly approved a standalone measure known as the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act in July.

The bill passed 219–210 but has since stalled in the Senate, leaving the issue unresolved heading into the next legislative cycle.

Self said he intends to continue pressing the issue, stating he will “fight on in the next must-pass bill to ensure a CBDC never sees the light of day. Financial freedom isn’t negotiable.”

The controversy underscores how digital currency policy has become a flashpoint within the Republican caucus, shaping congressional negotiations well beyond the crypto industry.

Cryptocurrency wallets associated with the defunct darknet marketplace Silk Road showed unusual activity this week, moving millions in Bitcoin less than a year after founder Ross Ulbricht received a full presidential pardon from Donald Trump.

Blockchain analytics platform Arkham reported that the addresses transferred roughly $3.14 million worth of Bitcoin on Tuesday.

The sudden activity marks the most significant movement in these wallets in five years.

Dormant Addresses Suddenly Reactivate

Data showed that 176 individual transfers were executed from Silk Road-linked wallets, sending funds to a new and previously unknown destination address, identified as bc1qn.

The primary wallets tagged as connected to Silk Road still retain approximately $38.4 million in Bitcoin.

By comparison, the new recipient wallet currently holds only the $3.14 million that was shifted in this week’s transactions.

Earlier this year, these addresses carried out only three small test transactions, suggesting a dramatic change in behavior.

Cointelegraph was unable to verify the ownership of the new wallet and has reached out to Ulbricht for clarification.

Pardon Renewed Interest in the Silk Road Case

Ulbricht, who was serving a double life sentence without parole, was granted a full pardon in January.

He had been convicted in 2015 for creating and operating Silk Road, an online marketplace that enabled anonymous trading of illicit goods using Bitcoin as the primary payment method.

Following the pardon, supporters intensified fundraising efforts for Ulbricht’s cause.

Approximately $270,000 in Bitcoin donations have been contributed to the Free Ross campaign since early 2024.

Claims That Unseized Bitcoin Remains in Long-Dormant Wallets

Although the U.S. government seized approximately $3.36 billion in Bitcoin tied to Silk Road, analysts believe Ulbricht may still have access to additional funds stored in wallets never uncovered by investigators.

Conor Grogan, a director at Coinbase, highlighted that 430 BTC — now worth around $47 million — remain untouched in wallets he believes are linked to Ulbricht.

These funds have been completely dormant for more than 13 years.

Another Silk Road-tagged wallet, also likely connected to Ulbricht, holds an additional $8.3 million in Bitcoin.

That wallet has seen only limited activity, with just three minor test transactions over the past year, and has otherwise remained inactive for 14 years.

Uncertainty Over Who Controls the Funds

The resurgence of movement from Silk Road-associated wallets has reignited the longstanding question of who controls the remaining funds.

With the identities behind the newly activated wallets still unclear, speculation continues within the crypto community about whether Ulbricht, an associate, or an unknown third party initiated the transfers.

For now, analysts say the sudden shift may signal a broader pattern of long-dormant crypto assets being repositioned following Ulbricht’s high-profile pardon.

Bitcoin Cash has surged nearly 40% this year, becoming the strongest-performing Layer-1 blockchain asset in 2025.

Its performance outpaces competitors across the sector, including BNB, Hyperliquid, Tron and XRP, while many major networks remain deep in negative territory.

The data highlights a surprising shift in Layer-1 market dynamics, especially as most other prominent chains continue to post year-to-date losses.

Ethereum, Solana, Polkadot, Cardano and Avalanche all remain down significantly, with some falling more than 50%.

In contrast, Bitcoin Cash has delivered consistent gains despite operating with minimal marketing presence and no official X account.

Supply Structure and Demand Factors Fuel BCH Rally

Analysts credit Bitcoin Cash’s rise to a combination of favorable supply characteristics and renewed demand catalysts.

Crypto Koryo notes that BCH remains free from many of the dilution pressures affecting rival networks.

The asset has no token unlock schedule, no foundation treasury, and no venture-capital allocations that could create sustained sell-side pressure.

“The entire supply is circulating. No unlocks. No foundation, [no] VCs dumping,” Koryo explained.

This structure has allowed Bitcoin Cash to benefit more visibly from genuine organic demand.

As other networks navigate unlock cycles, grant emissions, and treasury spending, BCH’s fully circulating supply has helped maintain price strength.

Its relative scarcity throughout 2025 has amplified market reactions to new inflows.

Analysts Predict a Temporary Bitcoin Pullback Before Rally

Alongside BCH’s outperformance, analysts continue to monitor Bitcoin’s broader macro trajectory.

Trader Michaël van de Poppe forecast that Bitcoin may briefly dip to around $87,000 before the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.

Such a movement would sweep recent lows before setting the stage for another attempt at higher prices.

Van de Poppe expects a resumption of the uptrend if Bitcoin confirms support and reclaims the $92,000 level.

He believes that breaking through that threshold could open the path toward $100,000 within one to two weeks.

The outlook is tied partly to what he views as a supportive economic backdrop, including reduced quantitative tightening, expectations of rate cuts and expanding liquidity conditions.

However, he also identified key invalidation levels.

A drop below $86,000 could shift momentum toward $80,000, while failure to break and hold above $92,000 would weaken the bullish structure.

Long-Term Indicators Suggest the Bull Cycle Is Intact

Beyond short-term movements, long-range indicators continue to point toward underlying market strength.

Technical analyst TXMC has highlighted Bitcoin’s “liveliness” indicator, a measure tracking the balance between long-term holding and spent coins.

The indicator has begun rising again even as price action remains relatively muted.

The pattern historically aligns with phases of renewed accumulation and strengthening bull market cycles.

A rise in liveliness typically reflects older coins returning to circulation, increasing network activity, or strengthening spot demand.

Together with whale positioning and institutional participation through ETFs, these on-chain signals suggest Bitcoin’s broader cycle may still be in its expansionary stage.

For Bitcoin Cash, the environment has created momentum that continues to separate it from the rest of the Layer-1 market.

As competing chains struggle with drawdowns and token unlocks, BCH’s structure and demand profile have positioned it as one of the year’s most resilient assets.

Bitcoin is trading near a technical level that analysts say must be protected to prevent a deeper market decline.

According to analyst Daan Crypto Trades, BTC is hovering around the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, a widely watched indicator that often marks major support and resistance zones during market cycles.

“I think this is a key area for the bulls to defend,” he said, noting that a drop below the threshold could send Bitcoin back toward its April lows around $76,000.

He warned that such a fall would “break this high time frame market structure,” a scenario traders are trying to avoid.

Weekend Volatility Signals Continued Instability

Late Sunday, Bitcoin experienced another sharp leverage flush as both long and short positions were liquidated during low-liquidity trading hours.

The asset briefly fell below $88,000 before rebounding back above $91,500.

“This is another example of manipulation on the low-liquidity weekend to wipe out both leveraged longs and shorts,” said a trader known as “Bull Theory.”

The rapid swings highlight the vulnerability of crypto markets to sudden movements, especially during weekends when trading volumes decline.

Fed Meeting Expected to Shape Near-Term Direction

Investors are preparing for this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where policymakers are widely expected to announce a 0.25% rate cut.

However, analysts say the tone of the accompanying guidance may matter more than the rate move itself.

Since the October cut, crypto markets have lost momentum, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaling a “non-linear, data-dependent easing path rather than a clear-cutting cycle,” according to Markus Thielen of 10x Research.

Market Awaits Outlook Statement for 2026

Thielen noted that expectations now point to another 25-basis-point cut on December 10, followed by cautious language that may weigh on risk assets through the end of the year.

“With volumes already depressed and ETF flows negative, upside participation remains thin while the $70,000–$100,000 BTC range holds,” he said.

Implied volatility is also tightening, which he believes leaves downside risk more prominent in the near term.

Analysts Eye 2025 and 2026 for Potential Momentum

Henrik Andersson of Apollo Capital said a rate cut this week is already priced into the market, but the outlook statement will determine what comes next.

He said he remains cautiously optimistic for 2026, as the expected replacement of the Fed chair in May could lead to additional cuts next year.

“With the Fed chairman being replaced in May next year, we will likely get more interest rate cuts in 2026, which should be supportive for risk assets, including crypto,” he said.

Economic Data Could Unlock New Liquidity

Nick Ruck of LVRG Research said upcoming jobs and inflation figures will also influence market direction.

He argued that stronger-than-expected data could encourage renewed liquidity flows into crypto.

He added that this, combined with the Fed’s policy guidance, “could unlock renewed liquidity inflows and propel a broader market rebound if they align with expectations for continued monetary easing.”

Strategy has significantly reduced its rate of Bitcoin accumulation in 2025, marking a major shift from its historically aggressive approach and signaling that the company is positioning itself for a prolonged downturn in the crypto market.

Data shows that Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases have been declining steadily throughout the year.

According to analysts, this slowdown indicates preparations for harsher market conditions ahead.

Purchases Fall Dramatically From 2024 Peak

Strategy’s monthly buying volume reached 134,000 BTC at its 2024 high.

By November 2025, that figure had fallen to 9,100 BTC.

So far this month, the company has acquired only 135 BTC, one of its smallest monthly totals on record.

On November 17, the company purchased 8,178 BTC worth approximately $835.5 million, its largest single acquisition since July.

That purchase brought Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings to 649,870 BTC, valued at around $58.7 billion.

Market Pressure and Shifting Conditions

The slowdown comes amid a wider downturn in the cryptocurrency market.

The unwinding of the “BTC proxy trade,” which involved treasury firms and mining companies accumulating Bitcoin, has added further pressure to corporate Bitcoin strategies.

The company has also become a target of speculation due to its large balance-sheet exposure and the volatility in crypto-linked equities.

Company Preparing Financial Defenses

In response to market-wide stress, Strategy executives have outlined steps to protect the firm’s liquidity profile.

CEO Phong Le recently stated the company may sell some of its Bitcoin to cover debt costs, but only if the stock falls below its net asset value or financing options disappear.

Strategy has also built a $1.4 billion cash reserve to ensure it can meet dividend and debt obligations.

This reserve currently provides around 12 months of coverage, with plans to expand it into a 24-month buffer.

Index Eligibility Challenges

Strategy’s goal of inclusion in major stock market indices has hit obstacles.

MSCI, one of the key global index providers, has proposed a rule that would bar treasury companies holding more than half their balance sheets in crypto assets.

If adopted, the rule would disqualify Strategy from index inclusion and could eliminate passive investment inflows from index-tracking funds.

Michael Saylor, Strategy’s co-founder, has said the company is actively engaging with MSCI to discuss the proposed rule ahead of its planned implementation date.

A More Defensive Posture

While Strategy remains the largest corporate owner of Bitcoin, its activity in 2025 indicates a shift into a more defensive posture.

The reduced pace of buying, coupled with substantial cash reserves, suggests leadership is preparing for the possibility of sustained weakness across the crypto market.

At the same time, the firm continues to maintain one of the world’s largest Bitcoin positions, positioning itself to benefit from any future market recovery once conditions stabilize.