Bitcoin is trading around $75,000 to $76,000 today as the expiry of the US-Iran ceasefire and continued Strait of Hormuz tensions compete with sustained institutional ETF demand to produce a rangebound but resilient market.
The asset opened Monday around $73,820 before recovering to the $75,242 level by mid-morning as initial geopolitical risk-off sentiment faded, a pattern that has repeated multiple times since the Iran-US war began on February 28.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust recorded $284 million in single-day inflows as recently as April 17, demonstrating the scale of institutional capital actively positioned in the asset class regardless of short-term macro noise.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is sitting at 29, firmly in fear territory, but that reading has not translated into the price collapses that pure sentiment analysis might suggest.
Bitcoin hit a low of approximately $60,000 in February following the outbreak of the Iran-US conflict before recovering to current levels, consistent with its historical pattern of sharp initial geopolitical dips followed by recovery as inflation and currency debasement concerns take over the narrative.
Former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen was reported to have privately warned at a recent event that current US fiscal and monetary policies could push the dollar toward hyperinflation, comments that have fuelled renewed interest in Bitcoin’s fixed-supply characteristics.
The technical picture puts key resistance at $77,500, with a sustained break above that level needed to open a path toward the $85,000 to $90,000 range that several analysts have identified as the next major target.
Some analysts describe 2026 as a consolidation year following October 2025’s all-time high of approximately $126,000, framing current price action as the late phase of a post-halving cycle.
Others point to sustained institutional ETF inflows, the approaching World Cup driving consumer engagement with digital assets, and potential resolution of the Iran conflict as catalysts for a renewed move higher before year-end.
Until the ceasefire situation resolves definitively one way or another, the market is likely to remain headline-sensitive and rangebound rather than directional in either direction.
Bitcoin is trading in the $77,000 to $78,000 range on Saturday April 18, posting a gain of approximately 2.8 to 3% over the previous 24 hours as the Strait of Hormuz reopening sparked a broad shift in market sentiment that carried risk assets higher across equities, commodities and crypto simultaneously.
The move builds on a week of gradual recovery from lows near $70,000 in early April, when Trump’s blockade order sent investors into defensive positions across all major asset classes. The total crypto market capitalisation has reached $2.70 trillion, up from $2.63 trillion the previous day, with Bitcoin’s dominance holding at 57.3% as the largest digital asset continues to attract the most institutional interest in a period of elevated uncertainty.
US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have been one of the more remarkable data points of the current cycle. A single-day inflow figure of $663.9 million was recorded in the days prior to Friday’s session, driven primarily by BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. That figure represents the kind of institutional commitment that structurally changes Bitcoin’s demand profile compared with earlier market cycles, where retail momentum was the primary driver of price swings.
The liquidation dynamic has added further fuel to the move. Approximately $820 to $826 million in total crypto liquidations were recorded in recent sessions, with Bitcoin short positions accounting for more than $350 million of that total. When extended bearish positioning meets a macro catalyst that forces rapid position unwinding, the resulting short squeeze amplifies the directional move well beyond what fundamentals alone would produce.
Bitcoin is now testing a key resistance band in the $77,000 to $79,000 area that aligns with a Fibonacci extension zone and has acted as a ceiling multiple times over the past two months. A clean break above $79,000 on sustained volume would shift the technical picture materially and open conversation about a return to the $80,000 to $85,000 range. The Fear and Greed Index sits at 26, still firmly in the Fear category, which means the sentiment backdrop has not yet shifted to the kind of euphoric positioning that typically precedes meaningful corrections.
Several analysts have noted that the 46-day stretch of negative funding rates on Bitcoin perpetual futures, even as prices moved higher, is a historically unusual configuration that typically precedes sharp upside moves as short sellers are eventually forced to cover. Whether the Hormuz reopening and ETF inflows are sufficient catalysts to force that squeeze is the question the market is working through this weekend.
Bitcoin’s attempt to reclaim the psychologically significant $76,000 level stalled on Tuesday, with the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation pulling back to approximately $74,300 after briefly touching $75,900 during the US trading session. While the reversal disappointed traders who had been hoping for a decisive breakout, the underlying conditions in the derivatives market tell a story that some analysts believe points toward a sharp upside move in the near term.
The session began with genuine promise. Bitcoin climbed over 5% on Monday as risk assets rallied broadly following diplomatic signals that US-Iran peace talks could resume in Pakistan within days. The $73,000 resistance level that had capped prices for over two months finally gave way as global equity markets erased their war-related losses, drawing crypto capital back into the market alongside gains in the Nasdaq and S&P 500. That break above the six-week ceiling set the stage for Tuesday’s attempt to extend the rally.
What stopped the move at $76,000 was not a lack of buying demand but rather the concentration of sell orders at that specific level. Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research, described the situation as a market in which funding rates on Binance’s Bitcoin perpetuals have remained negative for 46 consecutive days, even as open interest has been rising throughout the recent price recovery. That combination — rising open interest alongside persistently negative funding rates — is a technical signal that new short positions are being added rather than existing ones being closed, creating the conditions for a mechanics-driven squeeze when selling pressure finally exhausts itself.
“Overall, the past 24 hours reflect a market that is beginning to show signs of re-engagement,” said Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group. He pointed to improving technicals and broader participation across the crypto market as evidence that the rebound has more structural foundation than a simple short-term bounce might imply. Kruger identified the $76,000 level as a critical test, noting that a decisive daily close above it would open the door to the mid-$80,000s where the 200-day exponential moving average currently sits at approximately $83,218.
Ethereum significantly outperformed Bitcoin during Monday’s session, rising 8.80% against Bitcoin’s 5.15% advance and approaching the critical $2,400 resistance zone. The relative outperformance of Ethereum is generally interpreted by crypto analysts as a risk-on signal within the digital asset class, as investors with higher risk tolerance tend to rotate from Bitcoin into Ethereum and subsequently into smaller-cap altcoins as confidence builds. Spot ETFs for Ethereum recorded their strongest week of net inflows during the period, an on-chain signal that institutional capital is selectively reengaging with the second-largest cryptocurrency.
Total crypto market capitalisation expanded by 4.53% during Monday’s session to reach $2.52 trillion, with short liquidations of $446.75 million out of total liquidations of $549 million confirming the mechanical short-squeeze dynamic that had been building. The asymmetry between forced short covering and forced long liquidations — more than four to one in favour of shorts being squeezed — provided upward price pressure that fed on itself in the way that large liquidation events typically do.
Bitcoin’s current price sits approximately 40% below the all-time high of $126,000 reached in 2025, a gap that contextualises even the recent recovery as partial at best relative to the prior peak. The combination of geopolitical disruption, the US-Iran conflict driving oil prices above $100 for weeks, tax selling pressure ahead of April 15 and deteriorating consumer sentiment has created one of the more sustained and multi-causal drawdown periods the market has experienced. Bitcoin posted its first back-to-back quarterly losses since 2022 in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.
A key near-term catalyst sits on today’s calendar. The SEC’s CLARITY Act roundtable, scheduled for April 16, could provide further regulatory guidance on the classification of crypto assets — a development that analysts categorise as historically bullish when the signals are constructive. The CLARITY Act has been positioned by the crypto industry as a framework that would bring greater legal certainty to token issuance and exchange operations in the United States, and any positive signal from the roundtable proceedings could act as an accelerant for the rally that has already begun.
The longer-term structure remains relevant context. Bitcoin’s next halving event, estimated for approximately April 2028, will cut the block reward from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. Each of the previous three halving events has historically preceded a significant bull cycle in the 12 to 18 months that followed, though past performance in a young and structurally evolving asset class carries meaningful limitations as a predictive framework. For now, the market’s eyes are fixed on the $76,000 level and what happens if and when it is finally broken with conviction.
Bitcoin surged past $75,000 for the first time since early February on Tuesday, posting its strongest intraday move in weeks as traders reacted to signals of renewed US-Iran diplomatic contact and covered short positions that had been accumulating around the $73,000 to $75,000 resistance zone.
The move triggered approximately $200 million in short liquidations, accelerating the upside momentum in a market that had spent more than a month confined to a narrow range between $68,000 and $75,000.
The catalyst was the same Trump statement that briefly lifted equity markets: his claim that Iranian representatives had contacted his administration “to work out a deal.” Whether that contact amounts to a meaningful diplomatic breakthrough or a tactical gesture remains unclear, but the crypto market did not wait for confirmation. Bitcoin climbed 5.9 percent, Ethereum rallied 8.6 percent, XRP gained 4.2 percent and Solana was up 6.3 percent on the session.
The rally faces structural tests in the immediate coming days. The April 15 tax deadline has historically generated meaningful crypto selling as US investors liquidate positions to meet obligations, with analysts estimating approximately $2.8 billion in tax-related selling pressure this year. The ceasefire between the US and Iran is scheduled to expire on April 22, creating a binary event that could trigger sharp reversals if talks fail again. The FOMC meeting on April 28-29, likely Jerome Powell’s last as chair before Kevin Warsh takes over, adds a monetary policy variable to an already volatile geopolitical picture.
The sustained hold above $70,000 through the Islamabad talks collapse and the Hormuz blockade announcement has been interpreted by many analysts as a sign that the crypto market is pricing in ongoing Middle East risk and no longer treats each escalation as fresh negative information. The all-time high for Bitcoin was $126,198 in October 2025. The current price represents a 41 percent discount to that peak. Institutional buyers, including Strategy’s continued accumulation programme, have provided demand beneath the leverage-driven moves throughout the war period.
Bitcoin broke above $72,000 on Thursday morning for the first time since March 18, with the cryptocurrency reaching an intraday high of $72,865 before a wave of selling pressure pulled it back toward $71,500. The move represented a five percent gain in 24 hours and lifted the total cryptocurrency market capitalisation to $2.51 trillion, its strongest reading in several weeks.
The catalyst was the same one driving equities: the ceasefire announced by President Trump less than two hours before his 8 p.m. Tuesday deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin had been trading in a narrow $65,000 to $73,000 war range for weeks, with upside persistently capped by oil-driven inflation fears and investor preference for safer assets during the escalatory phase.
The short squeeze component of the rally was significant. According to CoinGlass data, $254 million in bearish bitcoin short positions were wiped out in 24 hours, the largest single-day short liquidation since March 4. Across the broader crypto derivatives market, the total figure reached nearly $600 million in forced liquidations, the majority from shorts. This kind of mechanical unwinding amplifies price moves well beyond what spot demand alone would generate.
Ethereum had the stronger percentage gain, rising approximately 6 to 7 percent to above $2,200, its highest level since March 18. Solana, XRP and a range of altcoins all posted moves of 5 percent or more. The CoinDesk 20 index, a measure of broader crypto market performance, outpaced Bitcoin’s gain, which is a typical pattern when sentiment shifts from risk-off to risk-on.
Crypto-related stocks also responded sharply. Circle and Galaxy Digital advanced more than 7 percent in premarket trading. Robinhood rose 8 percent. Coinbase gained 5 percent. Strategy and Bitmine Immersion Technologies both climbed 6 percent or more. These companies serve as leveraged proxies for crypto sentiment in traditional equity markets, and their moves reflect how quickly institutional positioning can shift when macro conditions change.
Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF, MSBT, debuted on NYSE Arca on Wednesday under its ticker, coinciding with the ceasefire rally and providing additional institutional access to Bitcoin exposure through a familiar product structure. The ETF’s 0.14 percent annual fee positions it competitively within the growing universe of institutional Bitcoin products.
Analysts remain cautious about the sustainability of the move. Bitfinex margin long positions remain elevated at above 80,000 BTC, near multi-year highs, which historically functions as a contrarian indicator. The physical situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains complicated, with Iran continuing strikes on Gulf states after the ceasefire announcement and the Hormuz corridor not yet operating freely.
Gracy Chen, one analyst commenting on the outlook, offered a clear framework. “With stronger spot demand in place and higher onchain activity, bitcoin may finally get enough strength to break above $75,000 and move toward $80,000,” she said. “On the flip side, if the market fails to hold $68,000, downside pressure may persist, opening the way to $60,000 first.”
Several significant developments broke across the crypto industry in the past 24 hours, each illustrating a different dimension of a sector still navigating its way through institutional growth pains and persistent security vulnerabilities.
The most dramatic was the attack on Drift Protocol, a decentralised perpetual futures exchange built on Solana, which saw the DRIFT token fall roughly 40% in the 24 hours following the breach. Funding rates for DRIFT perpetuals surged above 6,000% in the immediate aftermath, with shorts heavily subsidising longs in a chaotic post-exploit environment.
The Drift attack has drawn comparisons in structure and scale to the $1.5 billion Bybit breach earlier in the year. Ledger’s CTO noted publicly that signers in the Drift incident had “unknowingly authorised” the drain — suggesting a sophisticated social engineering or supply chain compromise rather than a simple smart contract vulnerability. It is precisely the kind of incident that continues to complicate the industry’s case to institutional capital allocators that DeFi protocols have matured past their Wild West origins.
On a more positive note, Coinbase received conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency for a national trust charter, a significant step toward establishing the US’s largest crypto exchange as a federally regulated custodian. The conditional OCC nod still requires compliance milestones and final review before the charter becomes operative, but the direction of travel matters. A federally chartered Coinbase custody operation would likely accelerate institutional adoption by providing a regulatory framework that major pension funds and endowments currently cite as an obstacle to crypto allocation.
Separately, X — the platform formerly known as Twitter — announced it would deploy an account-locking mechanism for first-time crypto mentions, requiring identity verification before posting is restored. Product lead Nikita Bier described the move as specifically targeting a wave of phishing attacks using fake copyright violation emails to lure users into connecting wallets. The practical effect may be more disruptive than intended, catching legitimate users in a blunt dragnet, but the intent reflects a genuine and long-overdue attempt to address one of social media’s most persistent crypto-adjacent problems. How these three stories intersect — hacks, regulatory progress, platform safety — is as good a summary as any of where the crypto industry stands heading into the second quarter.
Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and his team published a note on Monday arguing that the 60% collapse in cryptocurrency-adjacent stocks from their all-time highs represents a “rare chance to buy the dip at a ‘big’ discount” — language that runs directly against the prevailing mood of Extreme Fear gripping the market.
The note maintained Outperform ratings on Coinbase, Robinhood, and Figure Technology Solutions while lowering price targets on all three to reflect expectations of weak first-quarter results when those companies report earnings in the coming weeks.
Bernstein’s argument rests on a structural view rather than a near-term price call: the analysts believe crypto equities are approaching a floor “into weak Q1 earnings” and that the Iran-war-driven macro pressure that has hammered the sector is temporary rather than structural.
Coinbase’s earnings per share are projected to grow 23% in 2026, driven by what Bernstein describes as a coming “stablecoin boom” and the rollout of new products that reduce revenue dependence on spot trading fees — the most volatile element of the exchange’s income.
The Fear and Greed Index for crypto sits at 8, in Extreme Fear territory, a reading last seen during the August 2025 flash crash that in retrospect marked a local price bottom. On-chain analysts note that nearly half of all circulating Bitcoin is currently underwater, with long-term holders selling at a loss — historically a signal that a capitulation phase is reaching its final stages rather than beginning.
Bitcoin itself is holding just above $67,000, attempting a modest rebound after testing the $65,900 support level, with the recovery capped by the $296 million in net ETF outflows recorded last week — the first net outflow week after four consecutive weeks of inflows.
Whether the Bernstein call ages well depends almost entirely on the Iran war duration. A ceasefire signal would likely trigger a sharp snap-back across risk assets including crypto. A continuation into May would test both the $65,000 support and Bernstein’s confidence in the sector’s structural resilience.
Bitcoin’s week has been a microcosm of the broader market — sharp falls when the Iran conflict escalated, an equally sharp recovery when ceasefire signals emerged, and then a fragile, news-dependent consolidation that left technical analysts deeply cautious. On Monday, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $68,000 as oil prices spiked above $112 per barrel and a broad risk-off move swept digital assets. By Wednesday, with Trump’s Truth Social post generating peace talk optimism, it had recovered to trade above $71,000.
At 9am Eastern on Wednesday, Bitcoin was priced at approximately $71,299, up modestly from Tuesday’s levels and roughly $16,100 lower than at the same point a year ago. Iran’s rejection of the US ceasefire proposal — which among other terms included a demand for control of the Strait of Hormuz — injected fresh uncertainty, but the market absorbed it with more composure than it had shown earlier in the week.
What the price movement this week has confirmed is something analysts have been arguing for months: Bitcoin has become deeply entangled with global macro sentiment rather than behaving as an uncorrelated asset. The phrase “digital gold” feels increasingly hollow when BTC falls in lockstep with equities during risk-off episodes and rises with them when geopolitical tension eases. Gold, in contrast, has absorbed $16 billion in ETF inflows year to date while Bitcoin ETFs have seen $4.5 billion in outflows over the same period.
On the institutional side, Michael Saylor’s Strategy has accumulated roughly 90,000 BTC in Q1 2026 alone, including a $76.6 million purchase of 1,031 coins, bringing total holdings to over 762,000 BTC. That accumulation acts as a structural demand floor during selloffs, reducing the probability of a severe crash even as retail sentiment remains cautious. The Fear and Greed Index sits at 25/100, firmly in fear territory. Technical indicators are mostly bearish, with Bitcoin’s 200-day EMA sitting at around $86,916 — a long way above current prices. The five-day pause in US strikes on Iran expires around March 28, and that date now functions as the most immediate catalyst for Bitcoin’s next significant directional move.
Monday was a sharp reminder of how directly Bitcoin now responds to geopolitical developments rather than purely crypto-native signals. When Trump posted on Truth Social that US strikes on Iran’s infrastructure would be paused for five days following “very good and productive” talks, Bitcoin jumped approximately 5% and broke back above $71,000.
The move came after a weekend that had seen Bitcoin drop below $67,600, with $336 million in total crypto liquidations over 24 hours and roughly $100 million in Bitcoin long positions wiped out as oil spiked and risk-off sentiment dominated.
Galaxy Digital, Coinbase, and IREN each gained around 2% in pre-market trading. Strategy — formerly MicroStrategy and the largest corporate Bitcoin holder — rose more than 3%.
The relief proved short-lived. Iran’s Fars news agency denied any direct or indirect talks with the US, which contradicted the White House narrative and caused markets to give back a portion of the gains.
By Tuesday morning, oil had jumped 4% on reports that Saudi Arabia and the UAE were moving toward joining the coalition against Iran. Bitcoin consolidated rather than extended.
Options markets reflected the unease. Put options on Deribit continued to trade at an 8-to-10 volatility point premium to calls through the June-end expiry — essentially unchanged from before Monday’s announcement. Traders are treating the geopolitical news with scepticism rather than pricing in a resolution.
The Fear and Greed Index fell to 8 at its low point over the weekend — deep inside “extreme fear” territory — before recovering somewhat on Monday’s news to settle in the mid-30s by Tuesday.
One structural positive amid the turbulence: spot Bitcoin ETFs have now recorded net inflows for four consecutive weeks. Last week alone, net inflows reached $95.18 million, indicating institutional capital is maintaining long-term allocations regardless of short-term volatility.
Bitcoin’s correlation with gold during this period has been telling. Gold has attracted strategic central bank buying even under geopolitical stress. Bitcoin has traded more like an equity — correlating closely with the S&P 500 rather than functioning as a haven.
The divergence does not invalidate the long-term institutional thesis. It does suggest that Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative requires a certain baseline of macro stability to sustain itself, and the current environment has not provided that.
If the Strait of Hormuz situation de-escalates meaningfully, the geopolitical headwind on crypto removes itself and the structural institutional demand story reasserts. Until then, the market is navigating a macro environment it cannot control.
There are bad days to be sitting on a leveraged crypto position, and then there is quadruple witching Friday, and then there is quadruple witching Friday during a Middle East war, a hawkish Fed and a four-week equity selloff.
According to Goldman Sachs, more than $7.1 trillion in notional options exposure expires simultaneously, the largest quarterly derivatives expiry ever recorded, with roughly $5 trillion tied to the S&P 500 index alone and a further $880 billion linked to individual stocks.
Bitcoin was holding around $69,800 as those contracts began expiring, with Ethereum at $2,134, XRP at $1.43 and Solana at $88.93, each of those figures sitting well below where they were when the year began and well below where most investors had positioned for them to be by now.
The Fear and Greed Index for crypto markets registered 30 going into Friday’s session, firmly in fear territory and barely recovered from the reading of 23 recorded earlier this week following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish rate hold.
Quadruple witching matters to crypto investors because Bitcoin no longer operates in a silo separate from traditional finance.
The asset increasingly trades alongside equities and other risk assets, meaning institutional liquidations, portfolio rebalancing and derivatives settlement in the stock market create direct ripple effects in digital asset prices, often within the same trading session rather than with any meaningful lag.
Cole Kennelly, CEO of Volmex Finance, said the event is already showing up in digital asset volatility metrics: “Quadruple witching could trigger a spike in cross-asset volatility as large derivatives positions expire. This may already be showing up in crypto, with the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility (BVIV) Index trending higher into the event.”
The historical pattern from 2025 provides limited comfort for anyone hoping Friday itself will pass quietly.
Bitcoin tended to show muted or flat performance on the day of quadruple witching events themselves, but consistently followed with weakness in the days and weeks after, sometimes sharply so.
In September 2025, a post-witching decline took Bitcoin from $177,000 all the way to $108,000, while the June event was followed by a local bottom just two days later.
Analyst Max Crypto noted on social media that BTC has dropped between seven and eight percent before bouncing during three of the last four quadruple witching events, a pattern that, combined with the current macro backdrop, suggests the path of least resistance remains downward rather than upward in the near term.
Today’s derivatives expiry does not even represent the end of the week’s event risk for crypto specifically.
A separate $13.5 billion in digital asset derivatives are set to expire on Deribit on March 27, just six days away, and positioning data from that exchange shows traders leaning into volatility strategies rather than building directional bets, which signals a market bracing for continued turbulence rather than any clean directional resolution.
Bitcoin ETF outflows over the past two days have compounded the selling pressure, with BlackRock’s IBIT posting $38.25 million in outflows on Thursday, Fidelity’s FBTC shedding $26.02 million and Bitwise contributing $17.18 million to net outflows of $90 million across the day, a continuation of the $163.52 million in net outflows recorded on Wednesday.
The combined weight of geopolitical uncertainty, a Fed that has signalled one rate cut for the entirety of 2026, oil above $100 and now the mechanical pressure of the largest derivatives expiry in financial history arriving in the same week is as challenging a set of conditions as the crypto market has navigated since the October 2025 peak.