On Saturday, March 14, the Ethereum Foundation confirmed via a post on X that it had finalised the sale of 5,000 ETH to BitMine Immersion Technologies at an average price of $2,042.96 per coin, placing the transaction’s total value at approximately $10.2 million.
The announcement arrived without fanfare, which was somewhat deliberate, because the entire point of conducting the deal over the counter was to avoid the kind of visible sell pressure that an exchange liquidation of the same size would have created in a market already navigating significant macro uncertainty.
BitMine, chaired by Fundstrat’s Tom Lee and publicly traded on the NYSE American under the ticker BMNR, is not a speculative buyer loading up on a volatile asset — it is the largest publicly traded ether treasury company in the world, currently holding approximately 4.534 million ETH as of March 8, a stack worth more than $9.3 billion at recent prices.
The fact that the Ethereum Foundation chose BitMine as its counterparty rather than routing supply through exchanges is the most structurally interesting part of this transaction, because it means the ether did not actually leave the long-term holding universe — it simply moved from one institutional balance sheet to another with a longer time horizon.
The proceeds will fund the Foundation’s core operations, covering protocol research and development, ecosystem growth initiatives, community grant programs, and developer support, consistent with the treasury framework the organisation published in June 2025.
That framework established a target annual spending rate of roughly 15% of treasury holdings, alongside a two-and-a-half-year operating buffer designed to insulate the Foundation from having to sell into unfavourable market conditions out of necessity.
This is the second time the Foundation has used a direct corporate OTC sale to raise operational capital, having previously sold 10,000 ETH to SharpLink Gaming in July 2025 at an average price of $2,572.37 — a considerably higher price point that makes the current transaction’s $2,042.96 clearing price a reflection of where ETH has been trading through the first quarter of 2026.
On-chain data shows the Foundation’s treasury currently holds approximately 169,863 ETH, valued at around $359 million at recent prices, while the broader universe of corporate institutional ETH holdings has grown to exceed 5.16 million coins — a number that illustrates the pace at which ETH is migrating from retail and speculative holders toward longer-term institutional balance sheets.
The analytical question this transaction raises is whether a funding model built on periodic direct sales to corporate buyers represents a structural improvement over the previous approach of liquidating treasury holdings on open markets, and the answer seems to be yes, at least in terms of market impact management.
Private placements reduce slippage, limit visible selling pressure on public exchanges, and allow both parties to negotiate terms without moving prices — advantages that become more meaningful as the Foundation’s operational needs grow alongside the scale of the Ethereum ecosystem it is funding.
Whether the OTC model introduces governance concerns worth monitoring is a separate question, because directing large supply flows toward specific corporate accumulation entities creates concentration dynamics that the broader Ethereum community may want to track more closely over time as the Treasury framework matures.
Bitcoin (BTC) managed to climb back above the $70,000 level on Wednesday, demonstrating resilience in price despite several failed attempts over the past five weeks to surpass the $74,000 resistance mark.
Ongoing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Israel-Iran, combined with disappointing February U.S. labor data, have compounded investor caution, tempering enthusiasm for a sustained bullish move in the near term.
ETF Inflows Show Institutional Interest, But Skepticism Remains
While U.S.-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $414 million in net inflows between Monday and Tuesday, these gains failed to counterbalance $576 million in net outflows seen during the previous Thursday and Friday, highlighting cautious market sentiment.
Analysts note that derivatives markets indicate limited optimism among professional traders, suggesting a substantial rally before the end of March is considered unlikely according to call option pricing.
Derivatives Pricing Highlights Limited Upside Potential
Bitcoin call options on Deribit for March 27, with a $78,000 strike price, traded at $704, implying that whales and market makers assign less than a 17 percent probability of BTC achieving roughly a 12 percent gain from current levels.
Meanwhile, the annualized premium for two-month Bitcoin futures remains below the 4 percent neutral threshold, signaling stagnant demand for leveraged long positions even after a brief four-day rally that briefly retested $74,000.
Macroeconomic Concerns Weigh on Trader Sentiment
Professional traders appear wary of maintaining significant BTC momentum due to global economic uncertainty, with inflationary pressures exacerbated by conflict-driven oil price increases, which some strategists suggest offset fiscal stimulus effects.
Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, emphasized that investors are increasingly focused on how geopolitical tensions could influence inflation, underscoring broader economic caution across financial markets.
Institutional Adoption Supports Price Stability
Despite macroeconomic headwinds, investment products linked to Strategy (MSTR US) shares continue to underpin Bitcoin prices, with the company posting record daily trading volumes and enabling additional at-the-market share offerings for spot Bitcoin purchases.
X user “gumsays” highlighted that Strategy’s adoption of variable rate perpetual structures could drive purchases of billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin weekly, suggesting that potential ETF inflows may create sustained institutional demand in the medium term.
Traders are likely to maintain a cautious outlook until after March before anticipating Bitcoin to break the $78,000 threshold, as broader market dynamics and derivatives activity continue to reflect measured sentiment rather than outright enthusiasm.
Investor appetite for Bitcoin investment products strengthened again at the start of the week, ending a brief period of withdrawals that had weighed on cryptocurrency-linked exchange-traded funds.
Data from SoSoValue showed that US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted approximately $167 million in net inflows on Monday as the cryptocurrency moved closer to the $70,000 price level.
The inflows followed two consecutive trading sessions dominated by redemptions, during which roughly $577 million exited the funds across Thursday and Friday combined.
Bitcoin itself was trading near $70,015 at the time of reporting, according to CoinGecko data, reflecting modest recovery after recent volatility in the broader digital asset market.
The renewed demand suggested that institutional investors were again allocating capital to the largest cryptocurrency as prices approached a psychologically important threshold.
Altcoin ETFs Continue Facing Pressure
While Bitcoin funds regained momentum, investment vehicles tied to other major cryptocurrencies continued to experience significant selling pressure despite modest price gains in their underlying assets.
Exchange-traded funds linked to Ether, XRP, and Solana all recorded further net outflows on Monday, extending a multi-day trend of investors withdrawing capital from altcoin-focused products.
SoSoValue data indicated that Ether ETFs lost $51 million during the session, while XRP products saw $18 million leave the funds and Solana ETFs recorded withdrawals of roughly $2.5 million.
Across the past three trading days, Ether has experienced the largest cumulative losses among the group, with total outflows reaching approximately $225 million.
Although selling pressure in Ether and Solana funds has gradually moderated over the same period, XRP products have experienced accelerating withdrawals totaling roughly $41 million since Thursday.
Solana-related funds have also seen consistent but smaller outflows, with around $16 million exiting the products during the recent three-day stretch.
Market Sentiment Influenced By Geopolitical Developments
The broader cryptocurrency market received a temporary boost after comments from US President Donald Trump suggested that tensions related to the conflict involving Iran could soon ease.
Trump told reporters on Monday that the war with Iran could be approaching its conclusion, a development that helped calm financial markets and pushed global oil prices lower.
Lower energy prices and reduced geopolitical uncertainty often encourage investors to take on more risk, which can support assets such as cryptocurrencies and technology-linked investments.
During the same period, several major digital tokens recorded gains of between three and five percent over a twenty-four-hour timeframe, according to market data from CoinGecko.
Despite those price increases, the continued withdrawals from altcoin ETFs indicated that institutional investors remained cautious about committing capital beyond Bitcoin itself.
Analysts Warn Market Bottom May Not Be Reached
Some market analysts have warned that it may still be too early to conclude that the recent downturn in the cryptocurrency market has fully run its course.
A CryptoQuant analyst known as IT pointed to the Bitcoin long-term holder to short-term holder spent output profit ratio as an indicator that selling pressure remains present among newer market participants.
The metric recently dropped to 0.89, suggesting that short-term holders were continuing to sell Bitcoin at a loss rather than realizing profits on their positions.
Such behavior is typically associated with periods of market stress, when investors who entered positions during higher price levels decide to exit as volatility increases.
However, the analyst emphasized that the current readings do not yet reflect the type of widespread capitulation historically associated with the formation of a definitive market bottom.
As a result, the data suggests that while pressure in the market is increasing, a clearer turning point for Bitcoin prices may still lie ahead.
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have recorded a second consecutive week of net inflows, signaling a renewed wave of investor demand after a prolonged stretch dominated by withdrawals and cautious sentiment.
Data compiled by SoSoValue indicates that spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $568.45 million in fresh capital during the latest week, continuing the recovery that began with $787.31 million in inflows the week before.
The back-to-back positive weeks mark the first time the funds have achieved consecutive gains in roughly five months, suggesting investor appetite is returning after a difficult period for digital asset investment vehicles.
Prior to the recent turnaround, the funds had endured a five-week streak of consistent redemptions that resulted in cumulative outflows totaling around $3.8 billion across the sector.
The heaviest weekly withdrawals occurred during the period ending January 30, when investors collectively removed about $1.49 billion from spot Bitcoin ETFs as market uncertainty intensified.
Volatile Daily Flows During The Week
Although the weekly totals ultimately showed strong inflows, the daily performance across the week revealed fluctuating investor sentiment and intermittent profit-taking as markets reacted to shifting price dynamics.
Monday began with strong demand as the funds collectively attracted $458.19 million in inflows, reflecting renewed institutional interest and optimism surrounding the broader cryptocurrency market outlook.
The positive momentum continued into Tuesday, when spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded an additional $225.15 million in inflows as investors maintained confidence following the previous week’s encouraging performance.
Midweek trading delivered the largest inflow of the period, with $461.77 million entering the funds on Wednesday as market participants increased exposure to Bitcoin through regulated investment vehicles.
However, sentiment shifted toward the end of the week, with Thursday seeing net outflows of $227.83 million before withdrawals accelerated further on Friday with $348.83 million exiting the products.
Ether ETFs Also Register Consecutive Weekly Gains
Spot Ether exchange-traded funds in the United States mirrored the broader recovery trend, recording their second straight week of net inflows after several weeks of persistent investor withdrawals earlier this year.
The funds attracted approximately $23.56 million in new capital during the latest reporting week, following an earlier inflow of about $80.46 million during the preceding week.
These gains represent the first instance of consecutive positive weeks for US spot Ether ETFs since early October of last year, highlighting improving sentiment toward Ethereum-related investment products.
Before this recovery period began, Ether ETFs had experienced a five-week stretch of withdrawals that collectively removed more than $1.38 billion from the funds.
The most severe week during that downturn occurred in late January, when investors withdrew roughly $611 million as cryptocurrency markets faced heightened volatility and declining prices.
Bitcoin ETFs Rapidly Closing Gap With Gold Funds
The broader trajectory of Bitcoin ETF adoption has also attracted attention among industry observers who are comparing the pace of inflows with those seen historically in traditional commodity investment vehicles.
Fernando Nikolić, Blockstream’s director of marketing, highlighted in a post on X that spot Bitcoin ETFs have already matched approximately fifteen years of cumulative inflows recorded by gold ETFs.
Remarkably, that milestone has been reached in less than two years despite gold funds having a significant advantage in terms of time and maturity within the exchange-traded fund market.
Nikolić also noted that the achievement occurred during a period when Bitcoin experienced a drawdown of roughly forty-six percent and endured several months of negative price performance.
“Anyone still arguing about whether bitcoin is ‘digital gold’ is wasting their breath,” he wrote. “Bitcoin isn’t trying to be gold. Bitcoin is making gold look slow,” he added.
Fold, a publicly traded Bitcoin financial services company, has retired $66.3 million in convertible debt, removing a potential source of shareholder dilution and strengthening its capital structure ahead of planned product expansion.
The company disclosed that it paid off two outstanding convertible notes, which previously allowed debt holders to convert their positions into equity under certain conditions.
By eliminating these instruments, Fold significantly reduces the possibility of future share issuance that could dilute existing investors’ ownership stakes.
Bitcoin Collateral Released
As part of the restructuring, Fold also freed 521 Bitcoin that had been pledged as collateral against the convertible notes, restoring full control over those digital assets.
With the obligations settled, the previously encumbered Bitcoin can now be deployed for general corporate purposes, offering greater operational and financial flexibility.
The company stated that retiring the notes reduces financing constraints and positions Fold to pursue strategic growth initiatives more aggressively.
Expansion Into Consumer Credit
One priority includes launching a consumer-focused Bitcoin rewards credit card that distributes BTC instead of traditional points or cash-back incentives.
Fold originally built its brand around a debit card that allows users to spend U.S. dollars while earning Bitcoin rewards on everyday purchases.
Over time, it expanded into savings features and merchant partnerships designed to encourage long-term Bitcoin accumulation rather than immediate crypto spending.
Founded in 2019, Fold went public on the Nasdaq in February 2025 through a SPAC merger with FTAC Emerald Acquisition, becoming one of the first Bitcoin-centric financial services firms listed on a major U.S. exchange.
Despite that milestone, Fold shares have fallen more than 84% since debuting publicly, underscoring the volatility facing crypto-aligned equities.
Intensifying Competition In Crypto Rewards
The broader crypto rewards market has grown increasingly competitive, with multiple companies offering alternative cards tied to digital asset incentives.
Coinbase’s card enables customers to spend cryptocurrency balances directly while earning rewards, forming part of its broader strategy to integrate payments, trading, and financial services.
Other competitors, including Nexo, Bybit, and Crypto.com, offer crypto-backed or Visa-branded cards that provide token-based cashback and borrowing capabilities against digital assets.
More recently, Mastercard partnered with MetaMask to introduce a U.S. crypto-linked card that converts digital assets to fiat currency at the point of sale.
Against that backdrop, Fold’s debt elimination and collateral release represent a strategic effort to streamline operations while preparing to compete more aggressively within the expanding digital rewards ecosystem.
A Bitcoin bottom signal that previously preceded a powerful rally has reemerged, but shifting liquidity dynamics and deteriorating fund flows suggest that any recovery may unfold far differently from the surge witnessed in 2024.
Market observers are closely watching on-chain and macroeconomic indicators, as historical risk models now show conditions resembling those that marked the end of the prior major correction cycle.
On-Chain Metrics Flash Familiar Warning
Data from Swissblock shows Bitcoin has spent 25 consecutive days in its “extreme high risk” zone, surpassing the 23-day stretch recorded in 2023 before prices rebounded sharply.
Historically, such prolonged stays in elevated risk territory have coincided with late-stage drawdowns that eventually transitioned into durable bottoming structures and subsequent bullish expansions.
MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe highlighted the BTC versus supply in profit and loss chart, noting that price interaction with these levels has previously marked accumulation phases.
In 2023, the shift from high risk to low risk aligned with the beginning of a rally that ultimately delivered gains exceeding 130% during the following year.
However, traders caution that the current setup lacks the decisive follow-through buying that characterized prior recoveries, leaving the market vulnerable to renewed volatility.
Demand Weakness And ETF Outflows Weigh On Sentiment
RugaResearch reports that 30-day apparent demand continues oscillating between positive and negative readings, indicating that sustained buying conviction has yet to dominate the tape.
Although selling pressure appears to have moderated in recent sessions, analysts argue that inconsistent demand undermines confidence in a near-term breakout.
Exchange-traded fund flows further complicate the outlook, with Bitcoin funds recording negative 90-day rolling averages currently sitting at approximately negative $2.06 billion.
Over the same period, cumulative inflows into gold ETFs have exceeded spot Bitcoin ETF flows, suggesting investors may be favoring traditional hedges amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
This divergence in capital allocation reflects a more cautious environment compared with the liquidity-fueled optimism that underpinned previous rebounds.
Macro Headwinds And Key Price Levels
Inflation data also remains a critical variable, as headline Personal Consumption Expenditures hover near 2.9% year over year while core readings remain closer to 3.0%.
Core services inflation above 3.4% reinforces the perception that the Federal Reserve may maintain restrictive policy longer than risk assets would prefer.
Without clear evidence of easing financial conditions, expectations for aggressive liquidity expansion appear limited, potentially delaying any sustained upward momentum in Bitcoin.
CMCC Crest Managing Partner Willy Woo warned that short-term rallies toward $70,000 or $80,000 could encounter renewed selling pressure because “the broader regime is heavily bearish with both spot and futures liquidity deteriorating”.
Woo identified $45,000 as a pivotal level aligned with the prior bear market structure, while $30,000 and $16,000 represent deeper historical support zones tied to long-term trend preservation.
While bottom signals may be forming, analysts emphasize that major drawdowns outside extraordinary policy interventions have historically required patience before translating into durable recoveries.
Ransomware incidents surged by roughly 50 percent in 2025, as attackers increasingly pivoted toward small and medium-sized enterprises rather than pursuing large, high-profile corporate breaches.
According to blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis, nearly 8,000 leak events were recorded during the year, marking a significant escalation in publicly disclosed attacks compared with 2024.
Despite that surge in activity, total on-chain ransom payments declined to $820 million, representing an eight percent drop from the prior year and highlighting a widening gap between attack volume and realized returns.
Structural Shift In Criminal Economics
Researchers pointed to heightened regulatory scrutiny and enforcement actions targeting laundering infrastructure as key factors constraining attackers’ ability to convert extortion demands into cryptocurrency proceeds.
They also cited a growing refusal among large organizations to pay ransoms, which has reduced the financial incentives associated with headline-grabbing corporate intrusions.
“We’re seeing a structural shift in targeting: fewer large, headline-grabbing intrusions and more volume focused on small and medium enterprises. The assumption is simple — smaller victims pay faster,” eCrime.ch founder Corsin Camichel said in the report, adding:
“However, Chainalysis’ data shows payments trending downward despite an all-time high in public claims. That divergence is important. It suggests attackers are working harder for diminishing returns.”
Cheap Access And AI Tools Fuel Volume
The increase in attempted attacks has been linked to a sharp decline in the average price for victim network access sold on dark web marketplaces, which fell from $1,427 in early 2023 to $439 at the start of 2026.
An influx of inexpensive ransomware strains and automation tools, including artificial intelligence integrations, has lowered barriers to entry and enabled less sophisticated actors to launch campaigns at scale.
“We are seeing industrialized access pipelines, AI-assisted tooling, and a proliferation of infostealer logs that lower the barrier to entry, which has resulted in an oversupply of cheap but operationally constrained inventory that floods the market and depresses pricing.”
Crypto Losses Continue Into 2026
Although ransomware payments moderated in 2025, the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem continues to face elevated security risks entering 2026, with significant losses recorded from exploits and phishing campaigns.
Cybersecurity firm CertiK reported that $370.3 million in crypto assets were stolen in January alone, with phishing scams accounting for $311.3 million of that total.
The evolving threat landscape underscores how cybercriminal operations are adapting rapidly to enforcement pressure, combining lower-cost tooling with diversified tactics in pursuit of sustained illicit revenue streams.
Bitcoin prices retreated sharply on Tuesday, falling 4% within 24 hours to an intraday low of $62,700, as renewed selling pressure from short-term holders intensified market volatility.
Analysts observed that the cryptocurrency has transitioned into what they describe as an “excess loss-realization” phase, characterised by elevated levels of capitulation among recent buyers reacting to macroeconomic uncertainty.
The decline followed the announcement of a new 15% global tariff by US President Donald Trump, which triggered heightened risk aversion across digital asset markets and accelerated short-term liquidation activity.
Short-Term Holders Drive Selling Pressure
On-chain data indicates that the Short-Term Holder SOPR metric has fallen below 1, currently reading 0.95, signalling that many recent entrants are realising losses rather than profits.
CryptoQuant analyst XWIN Research Japan explained in a Quicktake post: “The primary sellers are short-term holders reacting to uncertainty, rather than long-term investors distributing structurally.”
Although the seven-day estimated moving average of short-term holder net realised losses has cooled to $500 million per day from a peak of $1.24 billion earlier this month, broader sentiment remains fragile.
Glassnode noted: “While the intensity has cooled, the broader regime still signals a market under pressure, with participants in the base formation phase continuing to capitulate.”
Further reinforcing this shift, the 90-day simple moving average of Bitcoin’s realised profit/loss ratio has dropped below 1, confirming what analysts describe as a full transition into an excess loss-realization regime.
Oversold RSI Points To Possible Reversal
Despite ongoing weakness, technical indicators suggest that Bitcoin may be approaching historically significant oversold territory that has previously preceded major recoveries.
The weekly relative strength index has fallen to 25.71, marking its lowest recorded level and surpassing extremes seen during the aftermath of the 3AC and Terra-Luna collapse.
Crypto analyst Nic Puckrin observed: “More downside is likely, but a bottom could be coming soon.”
Historically, comparable RSI readings have coincided with periods of acute short-term weakness followed by substantial medium- to long-term rebounds, suggesting that capitulation phases may lay the groundwork for renewed accumulation.
Additional sentiment gauges, including historically low fear and greed index readings and a decline in bullish forecasts for new all-time highs, indicate pervasive caution that some market participants interpret as a contrarian signal.
While volatility is likely to persist in the near term, the combination of extreme technical oversold conditions and diminishing realised losses suggests that Bitcoin may be entering a foundational phase preceding its next structural trend.
Hayden Adams, founder of the decentralized exchange Uniswap, has issued a fresh warning to users about fraudulent advertisements impersonating the platform, after reports emerged of a victim losing an entire cryptocurrency portfolio.
In a post on X, Adams said, “Scam ads keep returning despite years of reporting,” adding that “There were scam Uniswap apps while we waited months for App Store approval,” underscoring persistent challenges in combating online impersonation.
According to Adams, scammers are purchasing advertisements tied to keywords such as “Uniswap,” ensuring fake links appear prominently when users search for the decentralized exchange on popular search engines.
These deceptive links are designed to resemble official pages, encouraging unsuspecting users to connect their wallets and approve transactions, which ultimately enables attackers to drain digital assets completely.
A Costly Lesson Shared Publicly
The renewed warning follows a widely shared account from an X user known as “Ika,” who detailed how a crypto wallet valued in the mid-six-figure range was emptied despite what he described as disciplined security practices.
In a post titled “I lost everything, what’s next?” Ika reflected, “Disciplined for two years. Half-searching for a web3 job, half-hoping to make it fast enough not to need one,” describing the emotional and financial blow.
“I believe that getting drained isn’t bad luck. It’s the final consequence of a long chain of bad decisions,” Ika added, suggesting that incremental security oversights can culminate in devastating losses.
Shortly before publishing his lengthy account, Ika shared a screenshot appearing to show a top Google search result linking to an inauthentic Uniswap website, highlighting how convincingly fraudulent sites can mimic legitimate services.
Wider Trend Of Rising Crypto Losses
The incident comes during a period of elevated crypto-related theft, with January recording the highest amount stolen in scams and exploits in 11 months.
Security firm CertiK reported that cryptocurrency losses reached $370.3 million last month, representing a nearly fourfold increase compared with January 2025, and marking a sharp escalation in illicit activity.
Of the 40 reported exploit and scam incidents during the month, the majority of the total value lost stemmed from a single victim who reportedly forfeited around $284 million in a social engineering attack.
The combination of convincing phishing campaigns, paid search manipulation, and user complacency continues to create vulnerabilities within the decentralized finance ecosystem, even as platforms and community leaders repeatedly flag the dangers.
Adams’ latest comments reflect mounting frustration among crypto founders who must simultaneously innovate and defend their brands against increasingly sophisticated fraud operations exploiting user trust and search engine visibility.
Selling pressure remained intense in US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds on Thursday, extending a difficult stretch that analysts increasingly describe as historically poor performance for the beginning of a calendar year.
Data showed $165.8 million left the products during the session, pushing total weekly outflows to $403.9 million as investors continued withdrawing capital despite earlier enthusiasm surrounding regulated cryptocurrency investment vehicles.
Year-to-date losses now approach $2.7 billion, placing the sector close to a fifth consecutive weekly outflow streak and highlighting declining confidence among market participants during early 2026 trading conditions.
Trading volumes also weakened notably, falling roughly 21% compared with the previous week and reaching their lowest levels since late December, reinforcing the view that investor engagement is currently fading.
BlackRock Fund Leads Withdrawals
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust carried the largest share of redemptions this week, accounting for approximately $368 million in withdrawals as institutions appeared to trim exposure during ongoing market uncertainty.
Elsewhere, activity remained muted across competing funds, with the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund registering about $50 million in outflows on Wednesday while most other issuers experienced minimal investor movement.
Institutional positioning has also shifted, with Brevan Howard reported to have reduced its stake in the BlackRock vehicle by roughly 85% during the final quarter of 2025.
Despite total cumulative inflows exceeding $53.9 billion since launch, analysts say the broader trend suggests caution rather than expansion among large holders during the opening months of the year.
Unusual Post-Halving Performance Raises Concerns
Market observers highlight that Bitcoin’s current pricing pattern contrasts sharply with previous cycles typically associated with strong rallies following block-reward halving events.
“Almost two years later, BTC trades around $66,000 — nearly the same level as during the April 2024 halving,” analysts noted, emphasizing the absence of historical post-halving appreciation.
“This has never happened before. In previous cycles, BTC was already three to 10 times above halving levels by now,” they added while pointing to an unprecedented stagnation period.
Bitcoin has declined about 22% year-to-date, and datasets tracking the first fifty days of the year indicate the asset is experiencing its worst annual opening on record, surpassing declines seen during 2018’s downturn.