Bitcoin - Page 7

Bitcoin’s move below the $70,000 level is being interpreted very differently by long-term holders and institutional investors, according to Bitwise chief executive Hunter Horsley.

Contrasting Investor Reactions

“I think long-time holders are feeling unsure, and I think the new investor set, institutions are sort of getting a new crack at the apple,” Horsley said in an interview on Friday.

Horsley added that institutional buyers are “seeing prices they thought that they’d forever missed,” reflecting renewed interest after recent market weakness.

Only months earlier, expectations had been far more bullish, with predictions that Bitcoin would not revisit significantly lower levels.

Macro Pressures Weigh On Markets

Horsley acknowledged that Bitcoin’s recent decline has occurred during a period of increasing regulatory clarity and expanding institutional participation.

Bitcoin has fallen more than 22% over the past month, trading around $69,635 at the time of reporting, amid broad-based selling across liquid assets.

He described the current environment as a bear market, saying Bitcoin is “getting swept up” alongside other macro-sensitive investments.

“In the present moment, it is mostly trading with other liquid assets,” Horsley said.

Broader Asset Weakness

The pullback has not been limited to cryptocurrencies, with gold and silver also retreating sharply from recent highs amid tighter financial conditions.

These moves have reinforced the perception that investors are reducing exposure to risk and liquidity wherever possible.

Institutional Demand Remains Firm

Despite price volatility, Horsley stressed that institutional demand for Bitcoin remains strong, supported by consistent inflows into managed products.

He noted that Bitwise oversees more than $15 billion in institutional assets and recorded over $100 million in inflows on a single day during recent trading.

“There’s a lot of volume, and there are sellers and buyers,” Horsley said, pointing to active two-way participation in the market.

Retail curiosity has also surged, with online search interest spiking as prices revisited levels not seen since late 2024.

Tether has frozen more than half a billion dollars in cryptocurrency after receiving formal requests from Turkish law enforcement authorities investigating a large-scale illegal betting and money-laundering operation.

The move follows an announcement by prosecutors in Istanbul confirming the seizure of approximately €460 million in assets linked to Veysel Sahin, who is accused of running unlawful online gambling platforms.

While officials initially declined to identify the crypto issuer involved, Tether later confirmed it had blocked the funds tied to the investigation at the request of authorities.

Tether Confirms Cooperation With Law Enforcement

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said the company acted after reviewing information supplied by law enforcement agencies, stressing that compliance with local and international laws remains a core part of its operations.

“Law enforcement came to us, they provided some information, we looked at the information and we acted in respect of the laws of the country,” Ardoino reportedly said.

“And that’s what we do when we work with the DOJ, when we work with the FBI, you name it,” he added, highlighting the firm’s broader cooperation with regulators worldwide.

Growing Crackdown On Underground Finance

The Turkish investigation forms part of a wider effort to dismantle underground gambling and payment networks, with authorities reporting more than $1 billion in assets seized through related probes.

Analysts note that stablecoins are increasingly being scrutinised due to their use in cross-border transactions that can bypass traditional banking oversight mechanisms.

Stablecoin Blacklisting On The Rise

Blockchain analytics firm Elliptic has reported that stablecoin issuers, primarily Tether and Circle, had blacklisted roughly 5,700 wallets by late 2025.

Those frozen wallets were estimated to contain around $2.5 billion, with approximately three-quarters holding USDT at the time restrictions were imposed.

Tether has stated that it has assisted in more than 1,800 investigations across 62 countries, resulting in $3.4 billion in frozen USDT linked to alleged criminal activity.

Market Growth Continues Despite Scrutiny

Despite ongoing regulatory pressure, USDT continues to grow rapidly, reaching a record market capitalisation of $187.3 billion during the fourth quarter of 2025.

Network activity has also surged, with monthly active wallets climbing to nearly 25 million and quarterly transfer volumes hitting $4.4 trillion across billions of transactions.

Bitcoin has fallen more than 22.5% over the past week, dropping toward the $69,000 level and erasing gains accumulated over roughly fifteen months of upward price momentum.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt believes the decline reflects what he describes as “campaign selling,” suggesting large institutions are deliberately distributing holdings rather than retail investors panic selling positions.

Miners And ETFs Reduce Exposure As Selling Intensifies

Brandt observed that the price structure shows a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows, with little evidence of meaningful rebounds that would normally indicate dip-buying activity.

On-chain data supports this interpretation, with Bitcoin miners shifting into sustained net distribution throughout January as they sent increasing volumes of BTC onto the market.

At the same time, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have reduced their holdings, with total balances declining from 1.29 million BTC at the start of the year to around 1.27 million BTC.

The Coinbase premium, often used as a proxy for institutional interest, has also dropped to yearly lows, reinforcing the idea that large buyers are stepping back rather than stepping in.

Technical Signals Point Toward Additional Weakness

Based on Brandt’s analysis, Bitcoin could fall another 10% toward a bear flag target near $63,800 if current selling dynamics continue without interruption.

On-chain analyst GugaOnChain has identified a potential deeper downside zone between $54,600 and $55,000, aligned with Bitcoin’s realized price bands that historically mark structural undervaluation phases.

“The current price convergence toward the band signaling the start of the accumulation phase, situated around $54.6K, suggests we are in the critical transition between Capitulation and Accumulation.”

Historical data shows that when Bitcoin entered this zone in 2022 near $20,000, it eventually formed a long-term bottom before beginning a sustained recovery that carried prices above $30,000 the following year.

Another perspective suggests that broader macroeconomic factors, including credit spread movements, may delay a full accumulation phase until after mid-2026 based on past cycle patterns.

Artificial intelligence has become the clear priority for the world’s largest family offices, with a strong majority identifying AI-driven opportunities as central to their future investment strategies across multiple regions and asset classes.

A new report from JPMorgan Private Bank surveyed 333 single-family offices across 30 countries and found that 65% are either currently investing in AI or planning to do so soon.

By comparison, cryptocurrencies and digital assets continue to attract far less enthusiasm, with only 17% of respondents identifying the sector as an important theme for future allocations.

The findings also revealed that 89% of family offices currently hold no crypto exposure at all, while the global average allocation to digital assets stands at just 0.4%.

Exposure to Bitcoin is even more limited, averaging just 0.2%, suggesting that digital assets remain on the fringes of institutional family wealth strategies.

Private Equity And Growth Sectors Lead Allocation Plans

Private equity remains the dominant asset class among respondents, with 37% planning to increase allocations over the next 12 to 18 months as they pursue long-term growth opportunities.

Growth equity and venture capital are also rising in prominence, particularly as family offices view them as primary entry points into early-stage AI innovation and emerging technology ecosystems.

Despite this, more than half of the offices surveyed still report having no exposure to those segments, indicating that capital deployment into innovation remains selective rather than widespread.

Geographically, 59% of respondents are based in the United States, while others span Europe, Latin America and the Asia-Pacific region, creating a diverse but cautious global investment footprint.

Gold And Traditional Hedges Fail To Attract Interest

Even traditional safe-haven assets such as gold are failing to capture meaningful attention from family offices, with 72% reporting no exposure despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

“Despite geopolitical fears, family offices avoid gold and crypto,” the report wrote, adding that “appetite for traditional and emerging hedges remains limited.”

Geopolitical instability was cited as the top portfolio risk by 20% of respondents, followed by concerns over liquidity and trade policy, each highlighted by 12% of participants.

Other concerns included asset valuations, slowing economic growth and risks tied to concentrated portfolio positioning across fewer high-conviction investments.

Asian Family Offices Show Growing Interest In Crypto

While global interest in digital assets remains subdued, family offices across parts of Asia appear to be taking a different approach toward cryptocurrency exposure.

Reports have suggested that wealthy families in Singapore, Hong Kong and mainland China are exploring allocations closer to 5% of their portfolios amid rising demand for crypto-focused funds.

One Hong Kong-based multi-family office with $4 billion under management recently confirmed plans to invest up to $10 million into specialist crypto strategies for the first time.

This regional divergence highlights how attitudes toward digital assets can vary significantly depending on market maturity, regulatory clarity and client demand.

Tether revealed that its net profit for 2025 declined by roughly $3 billion compared to the previous year, even as the company’s holdings of United States Treasury bills climbed to the highest level in its history.

Figures verified in a report prepared by accounting firm BDO showed the stablecoin issuer generated more than $10 billion in net profit during the year, down from the $13 billion it recorded in 2024.

Treasury allocation reflects focus on safety and liquidity

Direct exposure to U.S. Treasuries surpassed $122 billion, a level the company described as evidence of an ongoing shift toward highly liquid, low-risk assets within its reserve management strategy.

Total assets on the balance sheet increased by $49.17 billion year on year, reflecting expanding issuance and continued accumulation of reserves as the stablecoin ecosystem grew across international markets.

USDt issuance rises as demand for digital dollars accelerates

Over the past twelve months, the company issued approximately $50 billion worth of new USDt tokens as demand for digital dollars increased in regions where traditional banking systems remain slow or fragmented.

Tether chief executive Paolo Ardoino said the stablecoin’s adoption has expanded because of “global demand” for U.S. dollars increasingly moving outside conventional financial infrastructure.

“Particularly in regions where financial systems are slow, fragmented, or inaccessible,” he said, claiming that the stablecoin has “become the most widely adopted monetary social network in the history of humanity.”

Market attention remains fixed on Tether’s reserves

Market participants continue to monitor Tether’s disclosures closely because USDt represents a substantial share of liquidity used across exchanges, trading desks, and decentralised finance platforms worldwide.

USDt ranks as the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation behind Bitcoin and Ether, making its reported reserves an important indicator of confidence across the broader stablecoin market.

Traders frequently rely on USDt as a digital dollar substitute for collateral, settlement, and margin purposes, increasing the importance of reserve composition and overall profitability figures.

Gold exposure strengthens alongside dollar-backed reserves

Alongside Treasuries, Tether has steadily increased its exposure to gold, reporting approximately $12 billion in gold-related reserves as of September 2025.

The company holds 520,089 troy ounces of gold specifically backing its XAUt tokens, equivalent to roughly 16.2 metric tons, which are kept separate from its broader bullion holdings.

“Tether maintains approximately 130 metric tons of physical gold, and the gold backing every XAUT token is held separately, making it eligible for physical delivery redemption,” a spokesperson for Tether recently told Cointelegraph.

Broader physical gold reserves amount to about 130 metric tons, valued at nearly $22 billion at current market prices, adding another layer of perceived stability to its overall reserve structure.

Bitcoin showed sharp volatility on Wednesday after briefly rallying to $90,600 before losing momentum following the US Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged.

The price reaction highlighted how sensitive crypto markets remain to macroeconomic signals, particularly those tied to monetary policy.

Although the rally faded quickly, traders are now focused on a higher price zone that could define Bitcoin’s next major move.

Market data suggests $93,500 has emerged as a critical level where billions of dollars in short positions are vulnerable to liquidation.

If Bitcoin approaches this area, forced buying could significantly accelerate price action.

This scenario would turn what appears to be a modest recovery into a fast-moving breakout.

Many traders view liquidation clusters as magnets that attract price due to the liquidity they provide.

The concentration of shorts near $93,500 makes it one of the most watched levels in the current market structure.

Why $93,500 Has Become a Key Target

Crypto trader Mark Cullen highlighted the importance of the $93,500 level on Bitcoin’s liquidation maps.

He described the zone as standing out clearly, calling it a “come get me” signal for traders.

According to Cullen, the size and visibility of the liquidation cluster make it difficult for the market to ignore.

Data shows more than $4.5 billion in cumulative short positions positioned around this price.

If Bitcoin trades into that region, many of these positions could be automatically closed.

Short liquidations force traders to buy Bitcoin to exit losing positions.

This buying pressure can quickly compound and push prices higher in a short period.

Such events often produce sudden, aggressive price spikes rather than slow upward movement.

Liquidation-driven rallies are common in markets dominated by leveraged trading.

Bitcoin’s derivatives market remains one of the most active in the global financial system.

The size of these positions suggests that even modest upward movement could create significant momentum.

Leverage Dominates While Spot Demand Lags

Despite the technical appeal of the $93,500 target, underlying market participation tells a more cautious story.

The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index remains firmly negative.

This indicates weaker demand from US-based spot investors.

A negative premium usually means Bitcoin is trading cheaper on Coinbase compared to offshore exchanges.

That gap suggests US institutional and retail buyers are not aggressively accumulating.

Instead, futures markets appear to be driving most of the recent volatility.

Futures trading relies heavily on leverage, which increases both potential gains and risks.

When price moves against leveraged positions, forced liquidations occur rapidly.

This structure makes rallies more explosive but also more fragile.

Without spot demand backing price increases, gains can reverse just as quickly.

Sustainable bull markets typically require strong participation from spot buyers.

At present, that component appears weak.

Risk-Off Signals Continue to Flash

Crypto analyst Leo Ruga highlighted that broader market indicators still reflect caution.

He pointed to the composite risk oscillator, which compares Bitcoin with assets like stocks, gold, oil, and the dollar.

The oscillator remains in what he described as risk-off territory.

Its current reading near 52 suggests stress rather than expansion.

Ruga also noted elevated readings in the on-chain pressure oscillator.

This metric tracks selling pressure from large holders and long-term investors.

Levels above 34 have historically coincided with market distribution phases.

These signals imply that sellers may still have influence.

For a sustainable recovery, selling pressure must diminish significantly.

Until that happens, bullish momentum may struggle to persist.

Short-term pumps remain possible, but they lack confirmation from broader indicators.

Whale Activity Remains Neutral

Analyst Pelin Ay focused on Bitcoin’s Whale Ratio as another important signal.

The Whale Ratio tracks the proportion of large transactions flowing into exchanges.

High readings often suggest whales are preparing to sell.

Low readings suggest accumulation or holding behavior.

Currently, the ratio sits near its 100-day moving average.

This position signals neutrality rather than conviction.

Whales are not aggressively selling, which limits downside risk.

However, they are also not accumulating aggressively, which limits upside momentum.

Strong bull trends usually emerge when whales actively accumulate.

The absence of that behavior suggests hesitation among large market participants.

This neutral stance contributes to choppy and unpredictable price movement.

Volatility may continue without a clear directional bias.

What Comes Next for Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s structure shows tension between liquidation-driven upside and weak underlying demand.

The $93,500 level remains a powerful magnet due to the massive short exposure clustered there.

If price moves higher, liquidations could push Bitcoin rapidly toward that zone.

However, without strong spot buying, such a rally may lack staying power.

Risk-off indicators and neutral whale behavior suggest caution is still warranted.

Bitcoin may continue moving in sharp, volatile swings rather than a smooth trend.

Traders will closely monitor whether price action becomes supported by spot market participation.

Until then, Bitcoin remains driven by leverage rather than conviction.

Morgan Stanley has appointed veteran executive Amy Oldenburg to lead its newly established crypto unit as the bank accelerates its push into digital assets.

The move comes only weeks after the investment bank revealed plans to launch three crypto exchange-traded funds and introduce a crypto wallet for its clients.

This marks one of the firm’s most decisive steps into the crypto space after years of cautious engagement.

Oldenburg will transition into the role of head of digital asset strategy after more than two decades with Morgan Stanley’s emerging markets equity team.

She has been with the bank since 2001 and has played a central role in shaping its approach to developing markets and new financial products.

Her appointment signals that Morgan Stanley is taking a long-term and structured approach to building its digital asset operations.

A Leadership Shift with Strategic Intent

Oldenburg has led the emerging markets team since November 2021, where she was responsible for driving the division’s digital asset strategy.

Her experience in navigating volatile markets and complex financial products is expected to be instrumental as Morgan Stanley deepens its crypto exposure.

The transition highlights how digital assets are no longer seen as a side project but as a core part of the bank’s future strategy.

By placing a seasoned executive at the helm, Morgan Stanley is aiming to blend traditional financial discipline with emerging technology innovation.

This approach could help reassure clients who remain cautious about crypto while still capturing new growth opportunities.

It also reflects growing competition among major financial institutions to position themselves as leaders in digital finance.

Expanding the Crypto Workforce

Job postings indicate that Morgan Stanley is actively growing its digital asset team.

The bank is recruiting for roles such as digital assets strategy director, digital assets strategist, and digital assets product lead.

These positions suggest that the firm is building a comprehensive structure covering research, product development, and client strategy.

Such hiring activity shows that the crypto unit is being designed as a permanent fixture rather than a temporary experiment.

It also signals confidence that client demand for digital assets will continue to rise.

The expansion supports the idea that Morgan Stanley is preparing for a broader adoption of crypto-related services across its business.

New Crypto ETFs and Market Impact

Morgan Stanley recently filed to launch spot Bitcoin and Solana exchange-traded funds.

These filings represent the firm’s first major entry into crypto ETFs after largely staying on the sidelines during the earlier wave of institutional adoption.

Later, the bank also filed for a staked Ether ETF that would hold ETH while staking an undisclosed portion to earn additional income.

If approved, these products could open the door to significant new inflows into BTC, ETH, and SOL.

Morgan Stanley serves around 19 million clients through its wealth management division, giving it enormous distribution potential.

This reach could make its crypto offerings highly influential in shaping market demand.

Building a Crypto Wallet and Tokenized Assets

Beyond ETFs, Morgan Stanley is planning to launch a crypto wallet that supports both cryptocurrencies and tokenized real-world assets.

These assets may include stocks, bonds, and real estate represented in digital form on blockchains.

Such a platform would position the bank at the center of the growing trend toward asset tokenization.

It would also give clients more flexibility in managing and transferring both traditional and digital investments.

The move reflects a broader shift toward integrating blockchain technology into mainstream finance.

Oldenburg’s Stance on Self-Custody

Oldenburg has consistently emphasized the importance of crypto self-custody.

She has spoken publicly about the principle of “Not your keys, not your coins” and the need for stronger infrastructure that allows individuals to control their own assets.

“I want my liquidity 24/7, and also we have clients that want to move assets that they have and potentially bank them with us and be able to leverage all of the features that the digital assets space allows you,” Oldenburg said at the Digital Assets Summit 2025.

She previously expressed skepticism toward ETFs because they did not support staking and direct asset utility.

However, regulatory attitudes have since shifted toward greater openness to more advanced crypto products.

This change may align better with her vision of a more functional and user-controlled digital financial system.

Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao has firmly ruled out any return to the crypto exchange, even after receiving a presidential pardon that removed the legal barriers preventing him from doing so.

Zhao said the pardon issued by US President Donald Trump lifted all previous restrictions that had stopped him from holding a position at the company.

Despite that, he made it clear that returning to Binance was never part of his future plans.

“I haven’t really needed to go back. I didn’t really want to. I thought it was a pretty good way for me to step down, away from Binance after seven years,” he said.

Zhao explained that while the separation from the company was painful at the time, it eventually became something he accepted.

“At the time, it was very painful. I didn’t like it. But after, you get used to it. I don’t think it’s good for me to go back. I think we should leave room for other strong leaders to grow,” Zhao added.

His comments reflected a broader view that leadership transitions should be respected rather than reversed.

Zhao pleaded guilty in November 2023 to failing to maintain an effective Anti–Money Laundering program at Binance.

He was later sentenced to four months in prison and barred from working at the exchange.

Trump’s decision to pardon Zhao in October sparked controversy among US lawmakers.

Some questioned Binance’s alleged connections to Trump-linked crypto ventures.

Trump denied knowing who Zhao was when asked about the decision.

Zhao has consistently maintained that Binance has flourished since his departure.

He described the company as stable and progressing under its new leadership.

“Two capable CEOs” are now guiding the exchange forward, according to Zhao.

He said Binance had experienced growth across several important metrics.

These included increases in users, trading volume, and overall market share.

In a December open letter, Binance executives revealed the platform had surpassed 300 million users.

The company also reported total annual trading volume of $34 trillion.

Zhao described himself as a passive shareholder rather than an active executive.

“I just thought, look; they don’t need a backseat driver today. I’m still a shareholder,” Zhao said.

He added that his involvement was limited to offering advice through social media.

“I’m just a pretty passive shareholder, and today when I want to give them advice, I just write it on Twitter,” he said.

Zhao’s withdrawal from daily operations has allowed him to focus on broader crypto industry trends.

One of his most notable predictions involves Bitcoin’s future market behavior.

He believes the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle could be nearing its end.

Bitcoin has historically followed a pattern of sharp rises followed by steep corrections.

This pattern has repeated roughly every four years since its creation.

Zhao suggested that a new market environment may disrupt that structure.

“Normally, Bitcoin follows four-year cycles, if you look at historic data every four years there’s an all-time high, and then there’s a drop,” Zhao explained.

“But I think this year, given the US being so pro crypto and every other country is kind of following, I do think we will see this; we will probably break the four-year cycle,” he added.

He believes Bitcoin could be entering what economists describe as a super cycle.

A super cycle represents a prolonged period of exceptional growth driven by strong fundamentals.

Such cycles often mark structural changes in markets rather than temporary rallies.

Zhao sees growing institutional adoption as a key driver of this potential shift.

He also pointed to regulatory clarity in the United States as a major catalyst.

The approval of Bitcoin ETFs has accelerated mainstream acceptance of digital assets.

Institutional capital is now flowing into crypto at unprecedented levels.

This has changed Bitcoin’s role from speculative asset to financial infrastructure.

Zhao said government support could transform crypto from a niche market into a global standard.

He suggested that international governments are closely watching US policy direction.

Many countries are now adjusting their regulatory frameworks accordingly.

Despite recent market weakness, Zhao remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term outlook.

Crypto prices and sentiment have dipped at the start of the year.

Zhao described the downturn as temporary rather than structural.

He believes the foundations of the industry are stronger than ever.

Bitcoin’s supply structure and growing demand form a powerful economic equation.

The limited supply of Bitcoin makes it uniquely positioned in an inflationary environment.

Zhao said these conditions could support sustained upward price movement.

If a super cycle does emerge, it would mark a historic turning point for crypto markets.

It would reshape how investors interpret Bitcoin price behavior.

The traditional boom-and-bust model may no longer apply.

Zhao’s views reflect growing confidence among crypto industry leaders.

While he has stepped away from Binance leadership, his influence remains significant.

His commentary continues to shape market sentiment and long-term strategy discussions.

Zhao’s departure from Binance now appears final and deliberate.

He has positioned himself as a strategic observer rather than an executive decision-maker.

The industry, he believes, is stronger when leadership evolves naturally.

His focus has shifted from building exchanges to shaping ideas.

Bitcoin’s future, in Zhao’s view, is only just beginning.